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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Articles 1 - 8 of 8
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Nfl Positional Value In Terms Of Salary Cap Spending: Why Are Running Backs Undervalued?, Charlton Jackson
Nfl Positional Value In Terms Of Salary Cap Spending: Why Are Running Backs Undervalued?, Charlton Jackson
CMC Senior Theses
Running Backs over the past two decades have seen a contract value devaluation relative to other positions and the league's salary cap spending limit. The growth of running back salaries has stagnated in the past decade, and they currently fail to keep pace with the contracts for other positions. Through our empirical research, we were able to either reject or better explain existing reasoning for recent running back devaluation, such as the increase in passing volume, durability concerns, and running backs by committee. We found that the most significant change in the past 30 years of the NFL, since the …
Going Undrafted: Survival Of Undrafted Free Agents And Seventh Round Draft Picks In The Nfl, Trey Smith
Going Undrafted: Survival Of Undrafted Free Agents And Seventh Round Draft Picks In The Nfl, Trey Smith
CMC Senior Theses
Over the years there have been a lot of undrafted free agents that have had successful careers in the NFL. The monopsony structure for rookies entering the NFL and the fact that undrafted free agents get to pick what team they play for suggests that there is an advantage in not getting picked in the draft. To explore this possibility, this paper compares the probabilities of remaining in the NFL for undrafted free agents and seventh round draft picks through logit regressions and survival analysis. In doing so, this paper describes the processes the NFL takes in order to find …
Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne
Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne
CMC Senior Theses
There are 32 teams in the National Football League all competing to be the best by creating the strongest roster possible. The problem of evaluating talent has created extreme competition between teams in the form of a rookie draft and a fiercely competitive veteran free agent market. The difficulty with player evaluation is due to the noise associated with measuring a particular player’s value. The intent of this paper is to create an algorithm for identifying the inefficiencies in pricing in these player markets. In particular, this paper focuses on the veteran free agent market for offensive linemen in the …
The Drivers Of Success In The Nfl: Differences In Factors Affecting The Probability Of Winning Based On First Half Performance, Zach Alleva
CMC Senior Theses
This paper explores how changing various end game statistics effects a given teams probability of winning a game in the National Football League (NFL). Data from the 2000-2016 NFL seasons is split into two subsets, one for teams winning at halftime, another for losing teams. Using this data an empirical model is estimated to study how the determinants of a team’s success differ between the two sets of data. Overall, the factors which determine a team’s outcome are consistent between the two subsets, varying primarily by magnitude of the effect.
Player Compensation And Team Performance: Salary Cap Allocation Strategies Across The Nfl, Max Winsberg
Player Compensation And Team Performance: Salary Cap Allocation Strategies Across The Nfl, Max Winsberg
CMC Senior Theses
The National Football League’s salary cap constrains the available resources each franchise is allotted to spend on player personnel. I examine the effects of executive management’s compensation allocation strategies on team performance from 2006 to 2013. The findings suggest that spending more than the league-average on offensive lineman hurts overall team performance. Spending above the league average on both the offensive line and quarterback positions negatively affects offensive performance as well. This supports previous research stating that taking a superstar-approach to cap distribution negatively affects team performance. Furthermore, I find evidence of increased compensation inequality among players under the Collective …
Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford
Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford
CMC Senior Theses
Participants in the NFL gambling market can largely be divided into two distinct groups: informed bettors (“Sharps”) and uninformed bettors (“Squares”). Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that the dynamic between Sharp and Square bettors is very similar to that between institutional and retail investors. Professionals tend to be far better informed and utilize rational betting/investing strategies while individuals exhibit biases which perpetuate irrational strategies and therefore pricing inefficiencies. This study finds that uninformed participants in financial markets and the NFL betting market do share similar biases, and that these biases can be exploited by informed participants to generate positive excess …
Testing The Efficiency Of The Nfl Point Spread Betting Market, Charles L. Spinosa
Testing The Efficiency Of The Nfl Point Spread Betting Market, Charles L. Spinosa
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the efficiency of pricing in the NFL point spread betting market, as hypothesized by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, through both statistical and economic tests. This market provides a simpler framework to test such economic hypotheses than conventional financial markets. Using a larger sample size than past literature, this paper finds that while the market is efficient in the aggregate sense, there are still some profit opportunities which imply pricing inefficiencies.
Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly
Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly
CMC Senior Theses
The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account …