Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Nfl Franchise Departures And Nearby Home Prices, Brad R. Humphreys, Geoffrey Propheter

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Research shows that US professional sports facilities positively impact nearby house prices. New facilities typically have existing teams, complicating a separate assessment of the impact of teams and facilities. Existing research analyzed departures of pro basketball teams, but arenas host many non-sporting events. These results may not generalize. We exploit the relocation of two professional football teams to investigate the impact of team departures on home sales. Difference-in-differences and repeat sales model results indicate proximity to one team represented an amenity while proximity to the other did not. Differences in urban form likely explains this heterogeneity.

Nfl Rule Changes Favor Offenses; But Don't Defenses Win Championships?, Kipp Satterlee Ransome

Business and Economics Honors Papers

The NFL's emphasis on favoring the offense through implementing new game rules is likely a significant factor in increasing a team's average points per game. Additionally, an increasing average points per game metric is likely a contributing factor to increasing real team revenue, as prior research indicates that higher-scoring games lead to higher fan satisfaction. Using game, team revenue, and rule implementation data from the 2002-2022 seasons, this author tests two new hypotheses that test whether specific rule changes targeting defenses or special teams increase a team’s average points per game and whether an increased points per game metric positively …

Nfl Positional Value In Terms Of Salary Cap Spending: Why Are Running Backs Undervalued?, Charlton Jackson

CMC Senior Theses

Running Backs over the past two decades have seen a contract value devaluation relative to other positions and the league's salary cap spending limit. The growth of running back salaries has stagnated in the past decade, and they currently fail to keep pace with the contracts for other positions. Through our empirical research, we were able to either reject or better explain existing reasoning for recent running back devaluation, such as the increase in passing volume, durability concerns, and running backs by committee. We found that the most significant change in the past 30 years of the NFL, since the …

An Application Of Prospect Theory: The Effect Of Trailing At Halftime On Winning Nfl Games, Kian R. Sohrabi

Economics Honors Projects

Trailing in sports is associated with losing, but can trailing operate as a powerful motivator that leads to winning? Based on research by Berger and Pope (2011), this study applies Prospect Theory and loss aversion to football to test if trailing by a small margin can motivate success. This relationship is analyzed based on teams’ point differentials at halftime since halftime operates as a salient reference point and a time for teams to regroup and strategize. Analysis of over 12,000 NFL games found no significant effect of trailing at halftime on the likelihood of winning. That is, there is little …

Salary Cap Efficiency: A Study Of The Relationship Between A Nfl Quarterback’S Salary And Their Team’S Performance, Prasad Gosavi

Honors Scholar Theses

For years, sports economists have attempted to understand the impact of salary caps in sports leagues, as they can have an impact on a team’s favored personnel approach. In the National Football League (NFL), one of the more important positions is the team’s quarterback, who has the ability to command large contracts. This paper examines the work of past researchers, and attempts to add to the literature by analyzing data from the past ten NFL seasons. I find inconclusive results relating to the relationship between a NFL team’s winning percentage and the amount of salary cap space allocated for their …

Analyzing Competitive Balance In Professional Sport, Kevin Alwell

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper we review several measures to statistically analyze competitive balance and report which leagues have a wider variance of performance amongst its competitors. Each league seeks to maintain high levels of parity, making matches and overall season more unpredictable and appealing to the general audience. Here we quantify competitive advantage across major sports leagues in numbers using several statistical methods in order for leagues to optimize their revenue.

The Million-Dollar Smile: The Economic Analysis Of Facial Symmetry In The Nfl, Marion Fortino

Business and Economics Presentations

No abstract provided.

Love On The Brain, Luke Gehlhaus

Business and Economics Presentations

No abstract provided.

The Economic Determinants Of American Professional Sports Franchise Valuations, Ryan Flora

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This thesis seeks to analyze the impact of regional identities on American professional sports team valuations. Regional identities are classified as any name of a team that is not tied directly to the city that they reside in. For example, the Carolina Panthers have a regional identity because they are not based out of “Carolina”, they are based out of Charlotte, North Carolina. Another example would be the Arizona Cardinals, whose name encompasses the whole state of Arizona rather than Phoenix, the city they are based out of. The leagues that will be involved in this study are the National …

Dependability Of Referees’ Decision Making On Discretionary Penalties In The Nfl, Anthony Stefanidis

Theses and Dissertations

This paper predicts the possibilities of specific penalty types occurring, using a logistic regression model, and evaluates whether there is any possible bias towards teams by referees' decision making. Using penalties that occurred from 2009 until 2018, there seems to be a bias towards teams which are part of larger markets. How successful the team is and how famous some of the players are can also possibly affect the odds of a referee making a penalty call. Due to how underdeveloped the area of research is, there are many ways to expand it to essentially bring further light to whether …

Fantasy Football's Impact On Nfl Revenue, Joshua Hamby

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the hypothesis that fantasy football positively influences NFL revenues. While there are many variables that may substantially influence NFL revenues, such as team by team and year by year variation, the estimations in this paper attempt to isolate the effects of fantasy football. Providing evidence of impacts attributable to fantasy football would be important information for parties involved with the NFL and/or fantasy football to better understand what is creating value for the league, players in the league, and the fantasy industry. This paper has results on estimations testing the impacts of both the fantasy participation explosion …

The Nfl And Trump: Did Protesting Cause The Decline?, Jameson Osmond

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

This project is a study in econometric modeling of the effects of the protests of the national anthem in the NFL during the 2016-2017 seasons. The project is created to determine the accuracy or lack thereof of President Donald Trump's statement that the cause of the decline in viewership and ratings (and thus business) of NFL games was caused by protests that deterred US viewers.

Using viewership and rating data, along with various protest indexes created by collecting game-level protest data, an econometric model was constructed to allow for control over various endogenous and exogenous variables that surround NFL in-season …

Going Undrafted: Survival Of Undrafted Free Agents And Seventh Round Draft Picks In The Nfl, Trey Smith

CMC Senior Theses

Over the years there have been a lot of undrafted free agents that have had successful careers in the NFL. The monopsony structure for rookies entering the NFL and the fact that undrafted free agents get to pick what team they play for suggests that there is an advantage in not getting picked in the draft. To explore this possibility, this paper compares the probabilities of remaining in the NFL for undrafted free agents and seventh round draft picks through logit regressions and survival analysis. In doing so, this paper describes the processes the NFL takes in order to find …

Does A Better Running Back Mean More Rushing? Game Theory And The Nfl, Eric Lofquist

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper I attempt to answer the question of whether or not teams in the National Football League (NFL) rush less with a better running back. This seems counterintuitive, but game theory supposes that this is true. Defenses facing a better running back will generally expect the offense to rush more and therefore defend the run more often. The offense, foreseeing the defense’s actions, will choose to pass more to counteract the run defense. This is the basis of the difference between the strategic effect and the direct effect in mixed strategies. The direct effect is when a player …

Does Where You Grow Up Affect Your Chances Of Being Drafted Into The Nfl?, Walker Head

Georgia College Student Research Events

The minimum rookie salary in the National Football League (NFL) is $450,000. First round picks often sign multi-year contracts worth more than $10 million. Players from some states are much more likely to receive college scholarships and eventually be drafted into the NFL, but it is not clear if this is a causal relationship. Utilizing data from Rivals and the NFL, I attempt to determine if where a player grew up has an impact on his chances of being drafted to play professional football. I focus on the top eight states, as it relates to percentage of recruits and my …

Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne

CMC Senior Theses

There are 32 teams in the National Football League all competing to be the best by creating the strongest roster possible. The problem of evaluating talent has created extreme competition between teams in the form of a rookie draft and a fiercely competitive veteran free agent market. The difficulty with player evaluation is due to the noise associated with measuring a particular player’s value. The intent of this paper is to create an algorithm for identifying the inefficiencies in pricing in these player markets. In particular, this paper focuses on the veteran free agent market for offensive linemen in the …

The Drivers Of Success In The Nfl: Differences In Factors Affecting The Probability Of Winning Based On First Half Performance, Zach Alleva

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores how changing various end game statistics effects a given teams probability of winning a game in the National Football League (NFL). Data from the 2000-2016 NFL seasons is split into two subsets, one for teams winning at halftime, another for losing teams. Using this data an empirical model is estimated to study how the determinants of a team’s success differ between the two sets of data. Overall, the factors which determine a team’s outcome are consistent between the two subsets, varying primarily by magnitude of the effect.

Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford

CMC Senior Theses

Participants in the NFL gambling market can largely be divided into two distinct groups: informed bettors (“Sharps”) and uninformed bettors (“Squares”). Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that the dynamic between Sharp and Square bettors is very similar to that between institutional and retail investors. Professionals tend to be far better informed and utilize rational betting/investing strategies while individuals exhibit biases which perpetuate irrational strategies and therefore pricing inefficiencies. This study finds that uninformed participants in financial markets and the NFL betting market do share similar biases, and that these biases can be exploited by informed participants to generate positive excess …

Player Compensation And Team Performance: Salary Cap Allocation Strategies Across The Nfl, Max Winsberg

CMC Senior Theses

The National Football League’s salary cap constrains the available resources each franchise is allotted to spend on player personnel. I examine the effects of executive management’s compensation allocation strategies on team performance from 2006 to 2013. The findings suggest that spending more than the league-average on offensive lineman hurts overall team performance. Spending above the league average on both the offensive line and quarterback positions negatively affects offensive performance as well. This supports previous research stating that taking a superstar-approach to cap distribution negatively affects team performance. Furthermore, I find evidence of increased compensation inequality among players under the Collective …

Testing The Efficiency Of The Nfl Point Spread Betting Market, Charles L. Spinosa

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the efficiency of pricing in the NFL point spread betting market, as hypothesized by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, through both statistical and economic tests. This market provides a simpler framework to test such economic hypotheses than conventional financial markets. Using a larger sample size than past literature, this paper finds that while the market is efficient in the aggregate sense, there are still some profit opportunities which imply pricing inefficiencies.

Unguaranteed Money In The Nfl: A Useful Tool For Risky Players, Wayne Simpson

Honors Theses

This study is investigating whether or not the percentage of non‐guaranteed money or length in NFL contracts reflects how risky players are as judged by past statistics. While sports economists have completed numerous studies on the motivational power of incentives, a study trying to identify the riskiness of players to lead to the strategic use of non‐guaranteed money and length of contract is a new idea. Contract details were gathered for running backs and wide receivers on NFL rosters for the 2012 season from rotoworld.com. Players who were still on rookie contracts and who were primarily special teams players were …

Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account …

"If You Build It, They Will Come": The Positive Economic Impacts Of Nfl Stadiums In Their Surrounding Cities, Mary C. Ewen

Honors Theses

As with most sports, the incredible emotion that comes with dedicated fans radiates throughout the cities in which these teams reside. The positive economic impact that NFL stadiums have on their surrounding cities is the driving factor behind the creation of these sports power houses. NFL franchises increase tourism, and create an economic stimulus within the community that makes hosting an NFL franchise within a city extremely appealing. Studies show that there may be an incentive to creating these colossal entities. However, these outcomes are not always considered to be because of direct influences the stadiums exude, and in some …

Stats Or Studs: Does It Pay To Be Good Looking? The Economic Impact Of Lookism, Lisle O'Neill

Business and Economics Honors Papers

“Beauty is in the eye of the beholder” is a phrase that exemplifies the subjectivity of attractiveness. In recent years, researchers in the fields of economics, sociology, and anaplasty have used symmetry analysis in an attempt to make beauty an objective issue. People characterized by greater facial symmetry, as defined by exhibiting balanced lateral proportions, are considered to be more attractive. Furthermore, labor economists, such as Hamermesh and Biddle (1994), suggest a wage premium for more attractive individuals, however, the measure of attractiveness was not based on symmetry. This study examines the effect of NFL quarterbacks' attractiveness on …

Have Public Finance Principles Been Shut Out In Financing New Sports Stadiums For The Nfl In The United States?, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade

Economics Department Working Papers

Over the past 15 years, new stadiums in the National Football League have been built at an unprecedented rate, and most new facilities have utilized significant public funds. This paper looks at whether the methods used to finance these new facilities honored public finance principles regarding equity, efficiency, and transparency. An examination of the 20 NFL stadiums constructed or refurbished since 1992 reveals a trend towards more voter referendums and an increase reliance on taxation of visitors through hotel and rental car taxes. Although taxation of persons living outside one’s own metropolitan area is appealing, this paper suggests that the …