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Articles 61 - 88 of 88
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine the influence of global and regional factors on the conditional distribution of stock returns from six Asian markets, using factor models in which unexpected returns comprise global, regional and local shocks. The models allow for conditional heteroskedasticity and time-varying conditional skewness, and are used to measure mean, variance, and skewness spillovers. We find that incorporating time-varying conditional skewness improves the fit of our spillover models, and can alter measurements of variance spillovers. However, time-varying conditional skewness is mostly a local phenomenon; with exceptions, there is little spillover in skewness from global and regional factors.
A Simple Approach To The Parametric Estimation Of Potentially Nonstationary Diffusions, Federico Bandi, Peter C. B. Phillips
A Simple Approach To The Parametric Estimation Of Potentially Nonstationary Diffusions, Federico Bandi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
A simple and robust approach is proposed for the parametric estimation of scalar homogeneous stochastic differential equations. We specify a parametric class of diffusions and estimate the parameters of interest by minimizing criteria based on the integrated squared difference between kernel estimates of the drift and diffusion functions and their parametric counterparts. The procedure does not require simulations or approximations to the true transition density and has the simplicity of standard nonlinear least-squares methods in discrete time. A complete asymptotic theory for the parametric estimates is developed. The limit theory relies on infill and long span asymptotics and is robust …
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Jun Yu
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contingent-claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. The present paper proposes instead a simulation-based method that improves the finite sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The methods are implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond pricing model, but have wider applicability. Monte Carlo …
Asian Currency Baskets: A Useful Surveillance Tool?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Asian Currency Baskets: A Useful Surveillance Tool?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers whether an intra-regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could play a useful role in official exchange rate surveillance. Recently, proponents of an Asian currency basket have referred to the role the European Currency Unit played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators as evidence of the usefulness of intra-regional currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. The paper shows that such indicators have a number of features that can lead to them obscuring underlying changes in exchange rates and that the signals they emit will often be difficult to interpret. In addition, the use of regional currency …
Wealth Transfer Effects Of Analysts’ Misleading Behavior, Gus De Franco, Hai Lu, Florin P. Vasvari
Wealth Transfer Effects Of Analysts’ Misleading Behavior, Gus De Franco, Hai Lu, Florin P. Vasvari
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
We investigate a sample of 50 firm events, identified in the Global Research Analysts Settlement, in which analysts were discovered to have acted misleadingly ex-post. In this setting, analysts' incentives caused them to issue public disclosures that differed from their private beliefs. We document that these firms' institutional holdings decline significantly during the period in which the analysts issued misleading disclosures. During this period daily small-size trades (a proxy for individual investors) are dominated by buy orders while daily large-size trades (a proxy for institutional investors) are dominated by sell orders. Short interest increases during the event period, consistent with …
Long Run Variance Estimation And Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels With No Truncation, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin
Long Run Variance Estimation And Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels With No Truncation, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new family of kernels is suggested for use in long run variance (LRV) estimation and robust regression testing. The kernels are constructed by taking powers of the Bartlett kernel and are intended to be used with no truncation (or bandwidth) parameter. As the power parameter ([rho]) increases, the kernels become very sharp at the origin and increasingly downweight values away from the origin, thereby achieving effects similar to a bandwidth parameter. Sharp origin kernels can be used in regression testing in much the same way as conventional kernels with no truncation, as suggested in the work of Kiefer and …
Trade Agreements With Domestic Policies As Disguised Protection, Gea Myoung Lee
Trade Agreements With Domestic Policies As Disguised Protection, Gea Myoung Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
WTO rules prohibit “disguised protection” in the form of domestic policies. How then do governments cooperate over trade and domestic policies when none can verify whether a nation's domestic tax reduction is a protective measure or a reaction to a production externality? In this paper, each government privately observes whether a production externality associated with its import-competing good is high or low. This paper finds that in an optimal agreement, disguised protection with domestic policies is never used by governments with a high externality, and is never commonly realized. Moreover, in an optimal agreement, tariffs may be conditional on domestic …
Bias In Dynamic Panel Estimation With Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends And Cross Section Dependence, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Bias In Dynamic Panel Estimation With Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends And Cross Section Dependence, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Research Collection School Of Economics
Explicit asymptotic bias formulae are given for dynamic panel regression estimators as the cross section sample size N --> ∞. The results extend earlier work by Nickell [1981. Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica 49, 1417-1426] and later authors in several directions that are relevant for practical work, including models with unit roots, deterministic trends, predetermined and exogenous regressors, and errors that may be cross sectionally dependent. The asymptotic bias is found to be so large when incidental linear trends are fitted and the time series sample size is small that it changes the sign of the autoregressive …
Two New Lessons From Asian Miracles, Hing-Man Leung
Two New Lessons From Asian Miracles, Hing-Man Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
Four Asian economies – Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Taiwan – have grown at spectacular speeds adopting different strategies. Past debates focused on their growth takeoff. The present paper studies their future outlook. As an economy matures, sustaining economic performance requires innovation and technology upgrading. Hong Kong, under a minimalist administration, is now critically deficient in technology. Singapore, dependent on foreign multinationals, is struggling to become a creator and not just a user of technology. We seek to explain why Hong Kong and Singapore are so much less innovative than Korea and Taiwan.
Business Output And Business Experience: Evidence From China's Nongovernmental Businesses, Liangjun Su
Business Output And Business Experience: Evidence From China's Nongovernmental Businesses, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the application of the Solow growth model in China's non-governmental businesses and propose a reasonable modification for it. Our analysis indicates that business experience is closely tied to the output of China's non-governmental businesses. Our major findings include: (1) the business experience has little overall impact on the elasticity of output with respect to labour; (2) the business experience has a large impact on the elasticity of output with respect to capital and the elasticity increases as the business experience increases; (3) the adjusted Solow residual that reflects technological progress exhibits a negative relationship with the business experience, …
Monotonicity Conditions And Inequality Imputation For Sample-Selection And Non-Response Problems, Myoung-Jae Lee
Monotonicity Conditions And Inequality Imputation For Sample-Selection And Non-Response Problems, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
Under a sample selection or non-response problem, where a response variable y is observed only when a condition δ = 1 is met, the identified mean E(y|δ = 1) is not equal to the desired mean E(y). But the monotonicity condition E(y|δ = 1) ≤ E(y|δ = 0) yields an informative bound E(y|δ = 1) ≤ E(y), which is enough for certain inferences. For example, in a majority voting with δ being the vote-turnout, it is enough to know if E(y) > 0.5 or not, for which E(y|δ = 1) > 0.5 is sufficient under the monotonicity. The main question is then …
To Use Or Not To Use?: Poverty Mapping In Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii
To Use Or Not To Use?: Poverty Mapping In Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Jin Xing, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Jin Xing, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The function form of a linear intertemporal relation between risk and return is suggested by Merton's [1973. Econometrica 41, 867–887] analytical work for instantaneous returns, whereas empirical studies have examined the nature of this relation using temporally aggregated data, i.e., daily, monthly, quarterly, or even yearly returns. Our paper carefully examines the temporal aggregation effect on the validity of the linear specification of the risk–return relation at discrete horizons, and on its implications on the reliability of the resulting inference about the risk–return relation based on different observation intervals. Surprisingly, we show that, based on the standard Heston's [1993. Review …
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Xing Jin, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Xing Jin, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The function form of a linear intertemporal relation between risk and return is suggested by Merton's [1973. Econometrica 41, 867–887] analytical work for instantaneous returns, whereas empirical studies have examined the nature of this relation using temporally aggregated data, i.e., daily, monthly, quarterly, or even yearly returns. Our paper carefully examines the temporal aggregation effect on the validity of the linear specification of the risk–return relation at discrete horizons, and on its implications on the reliability of the resulting inference about the risk–return relation based on different observation intervals. Surprisingly, we show that, based on the standard Heston's [1993. Review …
Bundling Information Goods: The Case Of E-Journals, Yong Tan
Bundling Information Goods: The Case Of E-Journals, Yong Tan
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
With the development of the Internet, e-business has become popular. Increasingly, e-journals are being sold via the Internet. E- journals have two main characteristics: one is the low marginal cost associated with access; the other is the large number of items. For the commercially motivated seller, the issue of bundling a large number of low marginal cost items so as to maximize profits needs to be dealt with. In this thesis, a solution by way of an intermediate bundle is proposed. It is found that the profit obtained under the proposed procedure is 4% to 5% higher than that under …
Moving Window Unit Root Test: Locating Real Estate Price Bubbles In Seoul Apartment Market, Shuping Shi
Moving Window Unit Root Test: Locating Real Estate Price Bubbles In Seoul Apartment Market, Shuping Shi
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Bubbles are characterized by rapid expansion followed by a contraction. Evans (1991) shows that stationarity tests suggested by Hamilton and Whiteman (1985) and Diba and Grossman (1988) are incapable of detecting periodically collapsing bubbles. Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2006) advanced the forward recursive unit root test which improves the power significantly in the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles. In this paper, we consider rolling window unit root test with a pre-selected optimum window. A combining use of conventional unit root test and forward recursive unit root test is suggested from the results of power comparison. Furthermore, we apply those three …
Regional Trade Agreements Revisited, Hui Chin Tan
Regional Trade Agreements Revisited, Hui Chin Tan
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
The gravity model is a workhorse for econometric studies of the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Despite its initial lack of theoretical basis, the model has been successfully derived from various trade theories. The latest theoretical derivation by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) reveals that prior gravity studies have made the critical error of omitting the multilateral resistance variable, which results in biased estimates. Other recent studies have highlighted empirical issues with the commonly used procedure of log-linearizing the gravity model and estimating the parameters using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Silva and Tenreyro (2006) point out that this …
Open Vs Sealed Bid Auctions: Testing For Revenue Equivalence Under Singapore's Vehicle Quota System, Roberto S. Mariano, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse
Open Vs Sealed Bid Auctions: Testing For Revenue Equivalence Under Singapore's Vehicle Quota System, Roberto S. Mariano, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using data from the auction of vehicle quota licenses in Singapore, we study if revenue equivalence holds when the auction format was switched from a sealed-bid format (May 1990 to June 2001) to an open bidding format since July 2001. Our econometric analysis indicates the change in auction format led to a change in bidding behavior. On average, the quota license premium under the open bidding format is about US$1000 (about 7.5% of the Category E license price in June 2001) lower, compared to the forecast level that would have prevailed if there had been no change in the auction …
Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Christian Gourieroux, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Christian Gourieroux, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects is inconsistent under fixed time series sample size and large cross section sample size asymptotics. This paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference, shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. Monte Carlo studies show that our procedure achieves substantial bias reductions with only mild increases in variance, thereby substantially reducing root mean square errors. The method is compared with certain consistent estimators and is shown to have superior finite sample properties to the generalized method of …
Education, Technology And Skill Premium : A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis, Anusha Pai
Education, Technology And Skill Premium : A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis, Anusha Pai
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Education, Technology and Skill Premium: a Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis is a two fold attempt to capture skill premium dynamics. First, it examines results across a cross section of model economies at different stages of economic development. It equates these model economies to real economies and compares skill premium results with the measure of income inequality. Second, it makes a valiant attempt to capture the non linear dynamics present in the US skill premium across 20th century, not captured so far in any dynamic general equilibrium model. Though the simplistic nature of the model leaves out many fine trends, the …
Indeterminacy And Market Instability, Kong Weng Ho, Nicholas Sim
Indeterminacy And Market Instability, Kong Weng Ho, Nicholas Sim
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Modeling Transaction Data Of Trade Direction And Estimation Of Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka
Modeling Transaction Data Of Trade Direction And Estimation Of Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper implements the Asymmetric AutoregressiveConditional Duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to analyzeirregularly spaced transaction data of trade direction, namely buy versus sellorders. We examine the influence of lagged transaction duration, lagged volumeand lagged trade direction on transaction duration and direction. Our resultsare applied to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) based on theEasley, Hvidkjaer and O’Hara (2002) framework. Unlike the Easley-Hvidkjaer-O’Hara model, which uses the daily aggregate number of buy and sellorders, the AACD model makes full use of transaction data and allows forinteractions between buy and sell orders.
Realized Daily Variance Of S&P 500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu
Realized Daily Variance Of S&P 500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper the realized daily variance is obtained from intraday transaction prices of the S&P 500 cash index over the period from January 1993 to December 2004. When constructing realized daily variance, market microstructure noise is taken into account using a technique proposed by Zhang, Mykland and Ait-Sahalia (2005). The time series properties of realized daily variance are compared with those of variance estimates obtained from parametric GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Unconditional and dynamic properties concerning the realized daily variance are examined, the relationship between realized variance and returns is investigated, and the stylized facts concerning realized daily …
Statistics With Estimated Parameters, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse, Zhidong Bai
Statistics With Estimated Parameters, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse, Zhidong Bai
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies a general problem of making inferences for functions of two sets of parameters where, when the first set is given, there exists a statistic with a known distribution. We study the distribution of this statistic when the first set of parameters is unknown and is replaced by an estimator. We show that under mild conditions the variance of the statistic is inflated when the unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is used, but deflated when the constrained MLE is used. The results are shown to be useful in hypothesis testing and confidence-interval construction in providing simpler and improved …
The Singapore Model Of Housing And The Welfare State, Sock Yong Phang
The Singapore Model Of Housing And The Welfare State, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
While Singapore is not generally regarded as a welfare state, the provision of housing welfare on a large scale has been a defining feature of its welfare system. The extensive housing system has played a useful role in raising savings and homeownership rates as well as contributing to sustained economic growth in general and development of the housing sector in particular. Few would dispute the description of Singapore’s housing policies as 'phenomenally successful' (Ramesh, 2003). Singapore’s economic growth record in the past four decades has brought it from third world to first world status (Lee, 2000), with homeownership widespread at …
Albert Rex Bergstrom: 1925-2005, Peter C. B. Phillips
Albert Rex Bergstrom: 1925-2005, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From A Unit Root Under Weak Dependence, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magadalinos
Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From A Unit Root Under Weak Dependence, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magadalinos
Research Collection School Of Economics
An asymptotic theory is given for autoregressive time series with weakly dependent innovations and a root of the form rho_{n} = 1+c/n^{alpha}, involving moderate deviations from unity when alpha in (0,1) and c in R are constant parameters. The limit theory combines a functional law to a diffusion on D[0,infinity) and a central limit theorem. For c > 0, the limit theory of the first order serial correlation coefficient is Cauchy and is invariant to both the distribution and the dependence structure of the innovations. To our knowledge, this is the first invariance principle of its kind for explosive processes. The …
Abnormal Trading Volume, Stock Returns And The Momentum Effects, Ying Zheng
Abnormal Trading Volume, Stock Returns And The Momentum Effects, Ying Zheng
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This paper intends to study the intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversal of stock prices by investigating the informational role of unusual trading volume for winner and loser stocks. I argue that unusual trading volume has different implications for winner and loser stocks. Specifically, high trading volume for losers is driven by purchases made by informed investors; while high trade volume for winners could be driven by either information or representativeness bias or both. The arguments are tested in the paper by showing that in the short run, losers/winners with high abnormal trading volume outperform losers/winners with low abnormal trading volume; …