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Articles 1 - 16 of 16
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Role Of Agriculture In The Economic Diversification Of The Nigerian Economy: (1980 – 2016), Adamu Hassan Muhammad, Tahir Hussaini Mairiga, Iliya Ayuba Thompson, Usman Ismaeel Bello
The Role Of Agriculture In The Economic Diversification Of The Nigerian Economy: (1980 – 2016), Adamu Hassan Muhammad, Tahir Hussaini Mairiga, Iliya Ayuba Thompson, Usman Ismaeel Bello
Bullion
This study empirically examines the role of agriculture in the diversification of the Nigerian economy, using time series data from 1980–2016. Estimation results using Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Technique indicate that agricultural output has a positive relationship and significant impact with non-oil exports (NOE) and that non-oil revenue has a positive relationship with non-oil exports (NOE). It was recommended that, government should endeavor to increase agricultural productivity by improving its expenditure on the sector so as to enhance the growth of the economy. Government should also increase its non-oil revenue and revive the sector through sufficient budgetary allocation and …
Analysis Of The Determinants Of Money Demand In South Africa: 1990-2019, Ali Kole, Hassan N. Wali, Alhassan M. Idris, Ismail H. Sanusi
Analysis Of The Determinants Of Money Demand In South Africa: 1990-2019, Ali Kole, Hassan N. Wali, Alhassan M. Idris, Ismail H. Sanusi
Bullion
This study estimates real intermediate money demand (RM2) and real broad money demand (RM3) for South Africa from 1990 Q1 to 2019 Q4. The main objective of the study was to explore the relationship between money demand and its determinants in South Africa with specific emphasis on the long-run relationship and stability between RM2, RM3,and their determinants. Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test for cointegration model developed by Pesaran (2001) was employed. The results found that both RM2 and RM3 are cointegrated with inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate,real GDP, and credit to the private sector in South Africa. Credit …
Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Abiodun S. Bada, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Inuwa A. Tata, Idowu Peters, Sani Bawa, Anigwe J. Onwubiko, Udoko C. Onyowo
Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Abiodun S. Bada, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Inuwa A. Tata, Idowu Peters, Sani Bawa, Anigwe J. Onwubiko, Udoko C. Onyowo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Concerns about the magnitude and length of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices have increased in many developing countries in view of its profound implications on price and exchange rate stability as well as the macroeconomic policy environment. This paper examines the exchange rate pass-through effect at the aggregate level into import and consumer prices in Nigeria for the period 1995Q1 – 2015Q1. Utilizing the Johansen approach to cointegration and a vector error correction methodology, the paper found the exchange rate pass-through into Nigeria’s CPI inflation to be incomplete. The long run pass-through elasticities were found to be 0.24 and …
Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba
Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
It is considered inapt for central banks to adjust reserve money (quantity of money) and interest rate (price of money) at the same time. Thus, necessitates the need for a choice instrument. Enough evidence abounds in microeconomic theory on the undesirability of manipulating both price and quantity simultaneously in a free market structure. The market, in line with the consensus among economists, either controls the price and allows quantity to be determined by market forces, or influence quantity, leaving prices in the hands of the forces of demand and supply. This paper is, therefore, an attempt to examine the optimal …
Cointegration Analysis Of Public Expenditure On Tertiary Education And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Japheth T. Torruam, Moses A. Chiawa, Cyprian C. Abur
Cointegration Analysis Of Public Expenditure On Tertiary Education And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Japheth T. Torruam, Moses A. Chiawa, Cyprian C. Abur
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The paper investigates the Impact of public expenditure on tertiary education and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data for the period 1990- 2011.The econometric methodology employed was cointegration and error correction technique. The study concludes that public expenditure on tertiary education has positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommended that government and private sectors should partner by mobilizing resources to furnish tertiary institutions and equip them with adequate facilities in order to enhance tertiary education development for sustainable economic growth.
A Test Of The Fisher Effect In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, U. M. Okpanachi, E. T. Adamgbe, S. E. Smith
A Test Of The Fisher Effect In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, U. M. Okpanachi, E. T. Adamgbe, S. E. Smith
Economic and Financial Review
This paper uses the state space model to investigate the dynamic relationship between real interest rate and inflation in Nigeria. The paper reveals varying degrees of effect across interest rate and time horizons.
Structural Breaks, Cointegration And Demand For Money In Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Stephen O. U. Uyaebo, Ibrahim Adamu, Abiodun S. Bada
Structural Breaks, Cointegration And Demand For Money In Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Stephen O. U. Uyaebo, Ibrahim Adamu, Abiodun S. Bada
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper estimates the money demand function in Nigeria in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis and examines whether its underlying properties has changed over the years. Specifically, the existence of a stable long-run demand for money function during the period 1991:Q1-2013:Q4, while accounting for the possibility of structural breaks is investigated. The Gregory-Hansen residual based test for cointegration detected both intercept and regime shifts in 2007:Q1 as the null of no cointegration is rejected at 1 per cent significance level, indicating that long run relationship exists between real money supply, real income, real monetary policy rate, exchange …
Government Size And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Test Of Wagner's Hypothesis, M. Y. Dogo, U. M. Okpanachi, A. A. Muhammad, C. V. Umolu, K. J. Ajayi
Government Size And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Test Of Wagner's Hypothesis, M. Y. Dogo, U. M. Okpanachi, A. A. Muhammad, C. V. Umolu, K. J. Ajayi
Economic and Financial Review
This paper attempts an empirical validation of Wagner's law in Nigeria using quarterly data for the period 1982 to 2012. The hypothesis that real income does not Granger-cause government expenditure was rejected. Adopting the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) regression techniques, the study found support for the Wagner's hypothesis in Nigeria. The analysis provided empirical evidence to support the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic activity and government expenditure in Nigeria. Overall, the results corroborated the Goffman's version of the Wagner's law in Nigeria. Thus, government needs to create fiscal space to enable deployment of more resources …
Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit
Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit
Economic and Financial Review
The study employed the Johansen (1988) and the Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate maximum likelihood method within a Vector Autoregressive framework to explore the impact of structural reforms on the level of real output in Nigeria. We fit the equation separately for two sub-samples, the pre-reform and the market-reform periods, to enable comparisons of the outcomes under alternative policy regimes. We further estimate the model using data that covered the entire sample period to evaluate the total effects and include a dummy variable to capture the impact of the policy shift. The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run …
Monetary Policy Rule: A Broad Monetary Conditions Index For Nigeria, Yaaba N. Baba
Monetary Policy Rule: A Broad Monetary Conditions Index For Nigeria, Yaaba N. Baba
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
To determine the relative importance of both the domestic and external influences on monetary policy formulation, this paper constructs a broad monetary conditions index for Nigeria. It brings together the three key channels of monetary transmission, namely interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels. The result gives dominance to exchange rate channel, followed by credit channel and interest rate channel. The resultant monetary conditions index traces fairly well the policy direction of the Central Bank of Nigeria for the studied period, hence can serve as an adequate gauge of monetary policy stance of the Bank.
Effect Of Monetary-Fiscal Policies Interaction On Price And Output Growth In Nigeria, Musa Yakubu, Asar K. Barfour, Shehu U. Gulumbe
Effect Of Monetary-Fiscal Policies Interaction On Price And Output Growth In Nigeria, Musa Yakubu, Asar K. Barfour, Shehu U. Gulumbe
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary-fiscal policies interaction on price and output growth in Nigeria. The dynamic correlations of variables have been captured by the analyses of impulse response and variance decomposition. From innovation analyses, the results suggest that the policy variables money supply and government revenue have more positive impact on price and economic growth in Nigeria specifically in the long run, thus some time with lag. Although monetary and fiscal policy variables have a dominant effect on economic activity, it is clear from this study that economic activity is dominated by its own dynamics in most of …
Demand For Foreign Exchange Reserves In Nigeria: A Cointegration Approach, Nkenchor N. Igue, Toyin S. Ogunleye
Demand For Foreign Exchange Reserves In Nigeria: A Cointegration Approach, Nkenchor N. Igue, Toyin S. Ogunleye
Economic and Financial Review
There have been significant accretions to foreign exchange reserves over the last decade in Nigeria, especially since the return to democratic governance in 1999. The study tries to find out the underlying factors driving the demand for reserves by the monetary authority. To estimate the demand for foreign exchange reserves in Nigeria, Johansen cointegration and error correction methodology was utilized for the period 1985:Q 1-20I0:O4. The results show that the long-run demand for foreign exchange reserves in Nigeria is driven by economic size, capital account vulnerability, exchange rate flexibility and opportunity cost. In the short-run, the major determinant of demand …
Is The Naira-Us Dollar Real Exchange Rate Misaligned?, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Murjanatu U. Wambai
Is The Naira-Us Dollar Real Exchange Rate Misaligned?, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Murjanatu U. Wambai
Economic and Financial Review
Policy makers are generally interested in knowing the degree of real exchange rate (RER) misalignment because of its connection to currency crises and other external sector imbalances. In Nigeria, the Naira-US Dollar RER appreciated by 81.3 per cent between 2000 and 2008 and depreciated afterwards by 10.10 per cent to close at an average of N 150.72 in 2009, due to the impacts of the global financial crisis. The main thesis of this study is: Are the movements in Naira RER during QI :2000 to 02:2011 in line with the economic fundamentals or not? Based on the theory of cointegration …
A Kalman Filter Approach To Fisher Effect: Evidence From Nigeria, Omorogbe J. Asemota, Dahiru A. Bala
A Kalman Filter Approach To Fisher Effect: Evidence From Nigeria, Omorogbe J. Asemota, Dahiru A. Bala
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates evidence of a Fisher effect in Nigeria by employing quarterly CPI inflation and Nominal interest rates data. For a more robust result we conducted integration and cointegration tests in order to examine time-series properties of the variables. Using Co-integration and Kalman filter methodologies, the study did not find evidence of a full Fisher effect from 1961:1-2009:4. This result indicates that nominal interest rates do not respond one-for-one to changes in inflation rates in the long run despite the presence of positive relationship among the variables. Our study recommends the adoption of potent policies aimed at checking inflation …
Is The Stock Market A Leading Indicator Of Economic Activity In Nigeria?, Alvan E. Ikoku
Is The Stock Market A Leading Indicator Of Economic Activity In Nigeria?, Alvan E. Ikoku
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In an effort to address the lacuna in leading indicator studies of African economies and Nigeria in particular, this paper examines the causal relationships among stock market prices, real GDP and the index of industrial production in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1984Q1 to 2008Q4. Granger causality tests indicate bidirectional causality between stock prices and GDP but no causality between stock prices and industrial production or between GDP and industrial production. Stock prices and GDP are found to be cointegrated, leading to the estimation of vector error correction models. Out-of-sample forecasts constructed with AR(1), ARIMA, structural ARIMA, and VEC models …
On The Stability Of The Demand For Money Function In Nigeria, Dipo T. Busari
On The Stability Of The Demand For Money Function In Nigeria, Dipo T. Busari
Economic and Financial Review
Using the cointegration error correction approach on annual data for the period 1970-2002, the study estimated a money demand function for Nigeria and examined some stability issues.