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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analysing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors – which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles – capture a large proportion of the co-variation in the quarterly time series. The estimated factor model also explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated …
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly time series, which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles. The estimated factor model explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated by the factors are generally more accurate than …
The Simple Analytics Of Debt-Driven Business Cycles, Thomas I. Palley
The Simple Analytics Of Debt-Driven Business Cycles, Thomas I. Palley
PERI Working Papers
This paper explores the economics of debt-driven business cycles, distinguishing between Keynesian and new Keynesian approaches. Keynesians emphasize the impact of borrowing and debt on aggregate demand (AD), whereas new Keynesians emphasize the impact on aggregate supply (AS). A unique Keynesian feature is emphasis on debtor – creditor debt-service income transfers. Business cycles result from two mechanisms. One is the multiplier – accelerator AD mechanism. The second is a predator – prey mechanism whereby increased income feeds the level of debt, but the level of debt preys on the level of income. Both the Keynesian and new Keynesian approaches are …