Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Continuing The Great Debate: The Intrinsic Value Of The Leading Index, Seth A. Morgan

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The following work is a look into the history and value of the composite index of leading indicators. Current and past business cycle theory is explored to demonstrate the relevance of a tool like the composite index of leading indicators. An argument that business cycle theory has not proven sufficient in explaining changes in the direction of the economy is made. The notion that the composite leading index has a proven track record of successfully predicting movements in the economy is reviewed. The conclusion becomes the idea that since theory and its forecasting counterparts have not proven a reliable method …