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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

In Pursuit Of Consumption-Based Forecasting, Charles Chase, Kenneth B. Kahn Jan 2024

In Pursuit Of Consumption-Based Forecasting, Charles Chase, Kenneth B. Kahn

Marketing Faculty Publications

[Introduction] Today's most mature, most sophisticated, best-in-class forecasting is what we call consumption-based forecasting (CBF). In contrast, the least sophisticated companies typically do not forecast at all, but rather set financial targets based on management expectations. Companies beginning to use statistical forecasting techniques usually take a supply-centric orientation, relying on time series techniques applied to shipment and/or order history. The next stage of progression is to incorporate promotions data, economic data, and market data alongside supply-centric data so that regression and other advanced analytics can be used. Companies pursing CBF utilize even more advanced capabilities to capture, examine, and understand …

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Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez Feb 2023

Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

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The Spatial Associations Between Crime And Economy In Chicago 2015-2020, Hongtao Huang May 2022

The Spatial Associations Between Crime And Economy In Chicago 2015-2020, Hongtao Huang

Honors Capstones

The severity of the crime is often the most intuitive reflection of whether a region is safe and the top factor for the public when evaluating a region. Economist's list of the safest cities in seven major North American cities, Chicago was ranked at six, just above Dallas. Chicago scored the lowest in personal security, which is closely tied to the crime. Against the backdrop of higher unemployment and prices, this study is interested in how property-based crimes are related to the economic decline in Chicago geographically. The study used the heterogeneity analysis tool Geodetector to investigate the correlation between …

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Alternative Economic Indicators, C. James Hueng, Editor Aug 2020

Alternative Economic Indicators, C. James Hueng, Editor

Upjohn Press

Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.

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Predicting The Federal Funds Rate, Danielle Herzberg May 2020

Predicting The Federal Funds Rate, Danielle Herzberg

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This thesis examines various economic indicators to select those that are the most significant in a predictive model of the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Three different statistical models were built to show how monetary policy changed over time. These three models frame the last economic downturns in the United States; the tech bubble, the housing bubble, and the Great Recession. Many iterations of statistical regressions were conducted in order to achieve the final three models that highlight variables with the highest levels of significance. It is important to note the economic data has high levels of autocorrelation, and that these …

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Health Of The Economy And Its Measuring Indicators, J. Sugantham Parimala Ph.D. Jan 2020

Health Of The Economy And Its Measuring Indicators, J. Sugantham Parimala Ph.D.

International Review of Business and Economics

Health of the economy is an integral part of development and it is determined by the socio – economic factors like education, employment, population growth, income and environment. If the economy is not healthy internally, then it will not be able to interact effectively externally. Economists use a variety of indicators to assess the performance of the economy at a given time. By looking at changes in GDP we can see whether the economy is growing. GDP doesn’t necessarily tell us much about the state of the economy. But change in GDP does. If GDP goes up, the economy is …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2019, Leonard Lardaro Oct 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2019, Leonard Lardaro Sep 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2019, Leonard Lardaro Aug 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: July 24, 2019, Eric Thompson Jul 2019

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: July 24, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.29% during June of 2019. The decline in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies slowing economic growth in Nebraska towards the end of 2019. The leading indicator declined due to an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance and a drop in both airport passenger enplanements and manufacturing hours. In addition, business expectations, which had been strong throughout the year, moderated during June. Respondents to the June Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans for only a modest increase in employment at …

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Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: July 3, 2019, Eric Thompson Jul 2019

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: July 3, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Business confidence fell sharply in Nebraska during June 2019 and consumer confidence dropped modestly. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) fell to 104.4 in June, above the neutral value of 100 but below the May value of 105.3. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) fell to 100.3 in June, at the neutral level and down 13 percent from 113.2 in May. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 35 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 21 mentioned the quality and availability of labor, 16 percent mentioned competition from other businesses and 9 percent flooding …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2019, Leonard Lardaro Jul 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 19, 2019, Eric Thompson Jun 2019

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 19, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.63% during May of 2019. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the end of 2019. Strong business expectations were the sole reason for the increase in the leading indicator. Respondents to the May Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. Other components were mixed with airport passenger enplanments, initial claims for unemployment insurance and building permits for single-family homes pointing …

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Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: June 7, 2019, Eric Thompson Jun 2019

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: June 7, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence rebounded in Nebraska during May 2019 and business confidence also improved. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) rose to 105.3 in May, above the neutral value of 100 and well above the April value of 95.6. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) rose 113.2 in May, well above the neutral level and up from 107.8 in April. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 30 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 21 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 18 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Fifty-two percent of responding households …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2019, Leonard Lardaro Jun 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 22, 2019, Eric Thompson May 2019

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 22, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.79% during April of 2019. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the end of 2019. Strong business expectations were again the primary reason for the increase in the leading indicator. Respondents to the April Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. There also was growth in manufacturing hours-worked during the month.

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Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: May 3, 2019, Eric Thompson May 2019

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: May 3, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence dropped sharply in Nebraska during April 2019 while business confidence remained strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 95.6 in April, below the neutral value of 100 and well below the March value of 110.0. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 107.8 in April, well above the neutral level and down slightly from 108.9 in March. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 29 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 27 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 19 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Fifty-three percent …

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Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: May 3, 2019, Eric Thompson May 2019

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: May 3, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence dropped sharply in Nebraska during April 2019 while business confidence remained strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 95.6 in April, below the neutral value of 100 and well below the March value of 110.0. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 107.8 in April, well above the neutral level and down slightly from 108.9 in March. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 29 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 27 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 19 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Fifty-three percent …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2019, Leonard Lardaro May 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: April 25, 2019, Eric Thompson Apr 2019

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: April 25, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 1.21% during March of 2019. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the fall of 2019. Strong business expectations were again the primary reason for the increase in the leading indicator. Respondents to the March Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. There also was growth in manufacturing hours-worked and a drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance during March 2019.

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Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: April 5, 2019, Eric Thompson Apr 2019

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: April 5, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer and business confidence remained strong in Nebraska during March 2019. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 110.0 in March, well above the neutral value of 100 and the value of 103.2 in February 2019. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 108.9 in March, well above the neutral level and up slightly from 108.2 in February. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 31 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 21 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 12 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Just 8 percent of …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2019, Leonard Lardaro Apr 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: March 20, 2019, Eric Thompson Mar 2019

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: March 20, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 0.38% during February of 2019. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the third quarter of 2019. Strong business expectations were the primary reason for the increase in the leading indicator. Respondents to the February Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. Business expectations were at odds with other components of the indicator. Building permts for single-family homes and manufacturing …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2019, Leonard Lardaro Mar 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: March 1, 2019, Eric Thompson Mar 2019

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: March 1, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer and business confidence remained strong in Nebraska during February 2019. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 103.2 in February, above the neutral value of 100 and just below the value of 104.0 in January 2019. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 108.2 in February, well above the neutral level and up from 107.4 in January. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 29 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 27 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 13 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Fifty-three percent of responding …

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Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: February 20, 2019, Eric Thompson Feb 2019

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: February 20, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 1.00% during January of 2019. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies solid economic growth in Nebraska into the third quarter of 2019. Strong business expectations were the primary reason for the increase in the leading indicator. Respondents to the January Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. The value of the U.S. dollar also dropped in January for the first time in a year, providing relief …

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Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: February 8, 2019, Eric Thompson Feb 2019

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: February 8, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence rose in Nebraska during January 2019. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) rose to 104.0 in January, above the neutral value of 100 and the December 2018 value of 99.1. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 107.4 in January 2019, well above the neutral level and slightly down from 109.9 in December. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 33 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 18 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 15 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Fifty-five percent of responding households listed a cost …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2019, Leonard Lardaro Feb 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: January 23, 2019, Eric Thompson Jan 2019

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: January 23, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 0.70% during December of 2018. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies solid economic growth in Nebraska during the first half of 2019. Nebraska manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts both rose during December, while business expectations remained strong. Respondents to the December Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months.

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Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: January 4, 2019, Eric Thompson Jan 2019

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: January 4, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence fell in Nebraska during December 2018. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) fell to 99.1 in December 2018, below the neutral value of 100, and well below the November value of 106.4. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 109.9 in December, well above the neutral level and slightly up from 107.2 in November. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 36 percent of respondents chose customer demand while 26 mentioned the quality and availability of labor and 11 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. Half of responding households listed a cost …

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