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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
In Pursuit Of Consumption-Based Forecasting, Charles Chase, Kenneth B. Kahn
In Pursuit Of Consumption-Based Forecasting, Charles Chase, Kenneth B. Kahn
Marketing Faculty Publications
[Introduction] Today's most mature, most sophisticated, best-in-class forecasting is what we call consumption-based forecasting (CBF). In contrast, the least sophisticated companies typically do not forecast at all, but rather set financial targets based on management expectations. Companies beginning to use statistical forecasting techniques usually take a supply-centric orientation, relying on time series techniques applied to shipment and/or order history. The next stage of progression is to incorporate promotions data, economic data, and market data alongside supply-centric data so that regression and other advanced analytics can be used. Companies pursing CBF utilize even more advanced capabilities to capture, examine, and understand …
Is Money Growth Still A Useful Indicator Of Inflation?, Levent Camlibel
Is Money Growth Still A Useful Indicator Of Inflation?, Levent Camlibel
Economics Theses & Dissertations
This thesis examines the linkages among the monetary aggregates, inflation, and the economy through vector auto regression techniques. Multivariate Granger causality tests, variance decompositions and impulse response functions are utilized to examine causal relationships among key economic variables. In 1987, the Federal open Market Committee (FOMC) decided not to establish a specific target range for M1 growth . Since then, the broader M2 measure of money has been the preeminent variable used in implementing monetary policy; however, the results indicate that M1 can be used in predicting inflation and M2 can be used in predicting real GDP. This suggests that …