Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Disability Forecasts And Future Medicare Costs, Jayanta Bhattacharya, David Cutler, Dana Goldman, Michael Hurd, Geoffrey Joyce, Darius Lakdawalla, Constantijn Panis, Baoping Shang

Darius N. Lakdawalla

The traditional focus of disability research has been on the elderly, with good reason. Chronic disability is much more prevalent among the elderly, and it has a more direct impact on the demand for medical care. It is also important to understand trends in disability among the young, however, particularly if these trends diverge from those among the elderly. These trends could have serious implications for future health care spending because more disability at younger ages almost certainlytranslates into more disability among tomorrow’s elderly, and disability is a key predictor of health care spending. Using data from the Medicare Current …