Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Disability Forecasts And Future Medicare Costs, Jayanta Bhattacharya, David Cutler, Dana Goldman, Michael Hurd, Geoffrey Joyce, Darius Lakdawalla, Constantijn Panis, Baoping Shang

Darius N. Lakdawalla

The traditional focus of disability research has been on the elderly, with good reason. Chronic disability is much more prevalent among the elderly, and it has a more direct impact on the demand for medical care. It is also important to understand trends in disability among the young, however, particularly if these trends diverge from those among the elderly. These trends could have serious implications for future health care spending because more disability at younger ages almost certainlytranslates into more disability among tomorrow’s elderly, and disability is a key predictor of health care spending. Using data from the Medicare Current …

Forecasting The Nursing Home Population, Darius Lakdawalla, Jay Bhattacharya, Dana Goldman, Michael Hurd, Geoffrey Joyce, Constantijn Panis

Darius N. Lakdawalla

Objective. To forecast growth in the US nursing home population, as a function of trends in disability and marriage.

Methods. Nursing home residence is modeled as a function of disability status, marital status, and other demographic covariates. Our predictions for nursing home residence are built upon joint forecasts of marriage and disability. We use data from the 1992 to 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys, which are individual-level data sets designed to be representative of the US population older than the age of 65.

Results. Today's young cohorts will have higher rates and levels of institutionalization than their older counterparts. …