Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Fertility And Reproductive Preferences In Post-Transitional Societies, John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Conventional theories have little to say about the level at which fertility will stabilize at the end of the transition although it is often assumed that replacement fertility of about 2.1 births per woman will prevail in the long run. However, fertility has dropped below the replacement level in virtually every population that has moved through the demographic transition. If future fertility remains at these low levels populations will decline in size and age rapidly.This paper attempts to contribute to the understanding of levels and trends of post-transitional fertility by examining the causes of discrepancies between reproductive preferences and observed …