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Modeling Longitudinal Data Using A Pair-Copula Decomposition Of Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Aleksey Min, Carlos Almeida, Claudia Czado
Modeling Longitudinal Data Using A Pair-Copula Decomposition Of Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Aleksey Min, Carlos Almeida, Claudia Czado
Michael Stanley Smith
Copulas have proven to be very successful tools for the flexible modelling of cross-sectional dependence. In this paper we express the dependence structure of continuous-valued time series data using a sequence of bivariate copulas. This corresponds to a type of decomposition recently called a ‘vine’ in the graphical models literature, where each copula is entitled a ‘pair-copula’. We propose a Bayesian approach for the estimation of this dependence structure for longitudinal data. Bayesian selection ideas are used to identify any independence pair-copulas, with the end result being a parsimonious representation of a time-inhomogeneous Markov process of varying order. Estimates are …
Bayesian Inference For A Periodic Stochastic Volatility Model Of Intraday Electricity Prices, Michael S. Smith
Bayesian Inference For A Periodic Stochastic Volatility Model Of Intraday Electricity Prices, Michael S. Smith
Michael Stanley Smith
The Gaussian stochastic volatility model is extended to allow for periodic autoregressions (PAR) in both the level and log-volatility process. Each PAR is represented as a first order vector autoregression for a longitudinal vector of length equal to the period. The periodic stochastic volatility model is therefore expressed as a multivariate stochastic volatility model. Bayesian posterior inference is computed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for the multivariate representation. A circular prior that exploits the periodicity is suggested for the log-variance of the log-volatilities. The approach is applied to estimate a periodic stochastic volatility model for half-hourly electricity prices …