Other Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Testing Aftershock Forecasts Using Bayesian Methods, Elisa Dong

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The presence of strong aftershocks can increase the seismic hazard following a large earthquake and should be considered for operational earthquake forecasting and risk management. Aftershock forecasts are generated from seismicity models during the evolution of the aftershock sequence. This work compares quantitative test results of the forecasting abilities for three competing aftershock rate models - the modified Omori law, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model, and the compound Omori law - to identify the best performing model for forecasting the largest aftershock during the early aftershock sequence. Forecasts of large aftershock probabilities are generated by either the Extreme Value …