Other Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Perfect And Nearly Perfect Sampling Of Work-Conserving Queues, Yaofei Xiong

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

We present sampling-based methods to treat work-conserving queueing systems. A variety of models are studied. Besides the First Come First Served (FCFS) queues, many efforts are putted on the accumulating priority queue (APQ), where a customer accumulates priority linearly while waiting. APQs have Poisson arrivals, multi-class customers with corresponding service durations, and single or multiple servers.

Perfect sampling is an approach to draw a sample directly from the steady-state distribution of a Markov chain without explicitly solving for it. Statistical inference can be conducted without initialization bias. If an error can be tolerated within some limit, i.e. the total variation …

Risk Models With Dependence And Perturbation, Zhong Li

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

In ruin theory, the surplus process of an insurance company is usually modeled by the classical compound Poisson risk model or its general version, the Sparre-Andersen risk model. Under these models, the claim amounts and the inter-claim times are assumed to be independently distributed, which is not always appropriate in practice. In recent years, risk models relaxing the independence assumption have drawn increasing attention. However, previous research mostly considers the so call dependent Sparre-Andersen risk model under which the pairs of random variables consisting of the inter-claim time and the next claim amount remain independent of each other. In this …

Valuation And Risk Measurement Of Guaranteed Annuity Options Under Stochastic Environment, Huan Gao

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis develops stochastic modelling frameworks for the accurate pricing and risk management of complex insurance products with option-embedded features. We propose stochastic models for the evolution of the two main risk factors, the interest rate and mortality rate, which could also have a correlation structure. For the valuation problem, a general framework is put forward where correlated interest and mortality rates are modelled as affine-diffusion processes. A new concept of endowment-risk-adjusted measure is introduced to facilitate the calculation of the GAO value. As a natural offshoot of addressing GAO valuation, we derive the convex-order upper and lower bounds of …