Other Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A New Approach To Generate Combinatorial Patterns In Logical Analysis Of Data And Its Application To Predict College Retention, Salihah Ahmed E. Jaafari

Theses and Dissertations

Student retention and degree completion remain central challenges for higher-education institutions, with significant implications for student success, institutional effectiveness, and public accountability. While advances in predictive analytics have enabled earlier identification of students at risk of withdrawal, many commonly used machine learning approaches suffer from limited interpretability, constraining their practical usefulness for advising, intervention, and policy decision making. This dissertation addresses the problem of predicting student persistence by developing and evaluating optimization based, interpretable classification models within the Logical Analysis of Data (LAD) framework. Building on existing LAD formulations, this research introduces two novel pattern generation models, the Best Term …

Bayesball : A Comprehensive Framework For Predicting Ucl Injury, Brady M. Pinter, Will Best Ph.D.

SPARK Symposium Presentations

Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) reconstruction, commonly referred to as Tommy John Surgery, has seen a significant rise among Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers, prompting growing interest in identifying the mechanical and performance-based factors that contribute to injury risk. While previous studies have examined these relationships using traditional frequentist approaches separately, this study combines multiple different model techniques to present a broad framework for finding significant predictors of UCL Surgery. These models include Lasso and Ridge Regression,  Principal Component Regression (PCR) , Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS) , Random Forest, Multiple Linear Regression, and a Bayesian Statistical Model. Using these models, …

Human Capital, Immigration, And Growth: A State-Level Dynamic Panel Study, William R. Cooper

Graduate Theses and Dissertations (2019 - present)

This study examines whether who immigrates, rather than how many, matters for state economic growth in the United States. It integrates a policy-relevant proxy for skill (H-1B approvals) into an augmented Solow framework that separates immigration's quantity channel from its human capital channel and estimates dynamic effects in a balanced quarterly panel of 50 states (2010 to 2023 ). The empirical strategy estimates a two-step difference GMM Arellano-Bond model that reinforces identification using a double/debiased machine learning (DML) variant that orthogonalizes high-dimensional nuisance components via cross-fitting. This design targets the distinct roles of immigrant headcount versus skill in per capita …

Performance Of The Two Sample Likelihood Ratio Test Under A Nested Dirichlet: A Simulation Study, Edwina Agyeman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Compositional data analysis (CoDA) addresses multivariate data constrained to a constant sum, such as proportions or percentages. Originating from early warnings regarding misinterpretation by Pearson (1897), the field was formalized by John Aitchison in 1986, whose foundational work remains highly influential. Over time, new modeling techniques and visualization tools have advanced the field, as noted by Greenacre et al. More recently, Turner et al. proposed an approach based on the Nested Dirichlet Distribution (NDD), which accommodates more flexible dependence structures than the standard Dirichlet model. This thesis builds on the methodology of Turner et al. Chapter 1 introduces the nature …

A Study On Fuzzy Time-Series And Its Applications To Stock Price Forecasting, Takeshi Stormer

University Honors Theses

Fuzzy mathematics looks to incorporate the vagueness that exists within the real world, specifically regarding imprecise classes, or non-numerical information expressed as "linguistic" variables. Since most traditional mathematical theories do not have the ability to be applied with the exactness that is otherwise seen in mathematics. As such, there had been many applications of fuzzy mathematics throughout many different fields of mathematics, including that of forecasting. By exploring the fundamentals of fuzzy mathematics, including fuzzy sets, operations of fuzzy sets, the surface level introduction to fuzzy logic, fuzzy relations, operations of fuzzy relations, and fuzzy time-series, this work looks to …

Mortgage Default Classification Modeling For Variable Analysis, Brendan R. Goggins

Honors College Theses

The financial crisis of the early 2000’s is a prime example of the severe consequences that mortgage default and borrower insolvency can have on economies at large. Mortgage default specifically is a prime case with the popularization of mortgage backed securities and the commonality of this loan structure. Multiple hypotheses and models have been formed to understand the reasons, causes, and consequences of mortgage default. This paper uses both machine learning and statistical classification models to inform an understanding of the variables most significant and impactful to the default outcome of mortgages. Consideration is given to both loan-level microeconomic variables …

Analysis Of Sled Dog Biomechanics, Natalie Bender

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This paper is an analysis of data collected by Dr Rachel Olson and her team. The data was collected from the same set of sled dogs before and after training for the Iditarod race. The goal of this paper is to draw conclusions on whether the gait of sled dogs’ change with fitness level. The data was cleaned in R to find the average peak for forelimb joint angles per run for each dog. The data was analyzed with 3 different ANOVAs – one including both the shoulder and carpus, one for just the shoulder, and one for just the …

Theoretical Foundations And Applied Performance Of Periodicity-Aware Imputation: Variable Bandpass Block Bootstrap Methods For Incomplete Time Series, Asmaa Ahmad

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Time series data are prevalent across a wide range of disciplines, including health surveillance, public policy, and environmental monitoring. In the presence of underlying cyclical patterns, the integrity of time series analysis depends critically on the ability to detect, model, and impute structured missing data without compromising the temporal structure. This dissertation introduces and validates a novel imputation framework that integrates the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap (VBPBB) into multiple imputation procedures, improving the accuracy, robustness, and interpretability of time series models under high rates of missingness and noise. The overarching goal of this dissertation was to develop and evaluate …

Exploring Healthcare Chatbot Information Presentation: Applying Hierarchical Bayesian Regression And Inductive Thematic Analysis In A Mixed Methods Study, Samuel Nelson Koscelny

All Theses

High blood pressure, also known as hypertension, significantly increases the risk of heart disease and stroke, which are leading causes of death in the United States. While contributing to over 691,000 deaths in 2021 alone in the United States (U.S.), it also imposes immense economic burden on the healthcare system, costing approximately $131 billion annually. One way to address this issue is for increased self-care behaviors and medication adherence, both of which require sufficient health literacy. Despite the importance of health literacy, 90% of U.S. adults struggle with health-related subjects. Overcoming the issues associated with health literacy requires addressing the …

Extending The Utility Of Ant Colony Optimization Through The Incorporation Of An Intraclass Correlation Coefficient To Assess For Rater Consistency, Mark Leveling

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is a flexible algorithm designed to solve complex combinatorial problems. While the method was derived from the behavior of ants by researchers in the field of computer science, its application to solving complex combinatorial problems is widespread in a growing number of fields in behavioral science, including psychometrics. Over the last two decades, psychometricians have adapted ACO to measurement model specification problems with the intention of generating measurement models that express measurement model fit and reliability within the standards of what is considered acceptable. Additionally, psychometricians have used ACO to generate shortened versions of existing measures …

Value Added Tax Rate Variation, Import Demand And Sectoral Output In Nigeria, Joshua K. Nomkuha, Aondoawase Asooso, Philip T. Abachi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study employs computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effect of increase in value added tax (VAT), from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, on import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria. The study uses 2020 as the base year for the data analysis. The results show that increase in VAT affects import demand negatively, based on import penetration ratios, with mixed effect across six sectors. The implication of the result is that the VAT policy discourage consumption of foreign products, and constitute excess burden to consumers of such products in Nigeria. The results further reveal that …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Last Passage Time And Excursion Theory For Solvable Diffusions With Applications In Mathematical Finance, Yaode Sui

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In this dissertation, we investigate the properties of last passage times and excursion theory in one-dimensional solvable diffusions, emphasizing their applications in financial modeling, particularly in option pricing. We derive closed-form formulas for the marginal distribution of last passage times and their joint distribution with process values, including the maximum and minimum of the process value. The focus is on time-homogeneous diffusions with various boundaries and imposed killing. Employing spectral expansion theory, we derive explicit formulas for distributions of last passage times in common processes such as Drifted Brownian Motion (BM), Squared Bessel (SQB), Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) models. …

Imputation Strategies For Different Categories Of Missing Data, Karthik Chalumuri

Honors Theses and Capstones

Addressing missing data in research is crucial for ensuring the reliability and validity of study findings, yet it remains a significant challenge. This study investigates the impact of missing data on research outcomes and explores the underutilization of existing tools for managing missingness, potentially leading to gaps in critical information with tangible implications for decision-making processes (Dziura et al.).

Focusing on the different categories of missing data—Missing Completely At Random (MCAR), Missing At Random (MAR), and Missing Not At Random (MNAR)—this research examines various imputation strategies tailored to each category. Specifically, we compare the efficacy of several model-based imputation methods, …

To Mean Or Not To Mean: An Investigation Of Regression To The Mean, Hunter Ellis

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Regression to the mean is a statistical phenomenon that can hide important characteristics of what is truly happening in a research study. Caused by statistical randomness, regression to the mean occurs when extreme values, high or low, are followed by less extreme values. To correctly deal with it, one must understand what it is and how to distinguish its effect on conclusions made from the data. This paper provides examples of regression to the mean in both a medical and academic performance study and explains simple identifiers one can observe. Those are then followed up by the introduction of the …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

The Use Of Regularization To Detect Racial Inequities In Pay Equity Studies: An Empirical Study And Reflections On Regulation Methods, Christopher M. Peña

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Since the late 1970s, multiple linear regression has been the preferred method for identifying discrimination in pay. An empirical study on this topic was conducted using quantitative critical methods. A literature review first examined conflicting views on using multiple linear regression in pay equity studies. The review found that multiple linear regression is used so prevalently in pay equity studies because the courts and practitioners have widely accepted it and because of its simplicity and ability to parse multiple sources of variance simultaneously. Commentaries in the literature cautioned about errors in model specification, the use of tainted variables, and the …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

A New Generalized Gamma-Weibull Distribution And Its Applications, Nihimat Iyebuhola Aleshinloye, Samuel Adewale Aderoju, Alfred Adewole Abiodun, Bako Lukmon Taiwo

Al-Bahir

In this paper, a New Generalized Gamma-Weibull (NGGW) distribution is developed by compounding Weibull and generalized gamma distribution. Some mathematical properties such as moments, Rényi entropy and order statistics are derived and discussed. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is used to estimate the model parameters. The proposed model is applied to two real-life datasets to illustrate its performance and flexibility as compared to some other competing distributions. The results obtained show that the new distribution fits each of the data better than the other competing distributions.

Analyzing Relationships With Machine Learning, Oscar Ko

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Procedurally, this project aims to take a dataset, analyze it, and offer insights to the audience in an easy-to-digest format. Conceptually, this project will seek to explore questions like: “Do couples that meet through online dating or dating apps have higher or lower quality relationships?”, “Can any features in this dataset help predict how a subject would rate their relationship quality?”, and “What other insights can I derive from using machine learning for exploratory analysis?” The intended audience for this project is anyone interested in romantic relationships or machine learning.

The dataset is from a Stanford University survey, “How Couples …

Carnivore And Ungulate Occurrence In A Fire-Prone Region, Sara J. Moriarty-Graves

Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects

Increasing fire size and severity in the western United States causes changes to ecosystems, species’ habitat use, and interspecific interactions. Wide-ranging carnivore and ungulate mammalian species and their interactions may be influenced by an increase in fire activity in northern California. Depending on the fire characteristics, ungulates may benefit from burned habitat due to an increase in forage availability, while carnivore species may be differentially impacted, but ultimately driven by bottom-up processes from a shift in prey availability. I used a three-step approach to estimate the single-species occupancy of four large mammal species: mountain lion (Puma concolor), coyote …

Network Intrusion Detection Using Deep Reinforcement Learning, Hamed T. Sanusi

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

This thesis delves into cybersecurity by applying Deep Reinforcement(DRL) Learning in network intrusion detection. One advantage of DRL is the ability to adapt to changing network conditions and evolving attack methods, making it a promising solution for addressing the challenges involved in intrusion detection. The thesis will also discuss the obstacles and benefits of using Classification methods for network intrusion detection and the need for high-quality training data. To train and test our proposed method, the NSL-KDD dataset was used and then adjusted by converting it from a multi-classification to a binary classification, achieved by joining all attacks into one. …

Predicting Insulin Pump Therapy Settings, Riccardo L. Ferraro, David Grijalva, Alex Trahan

SMU Data Science Review

Millions of people live with diabetes worldwide [7]. To mitigate some of the many symptoms associated with diabetes, an estimated 350,000 people in the United States rely on insulin pumps [17]. For many of these people, how effectively their insulin pump performs is the difference between sleeping through the night and a life threatening emergency treatment at a hospital. Three programmed insulin pump therapy settings governing effective insulin pump function are: Basal Rate (BR), Insulin Sensitivity Factor (ISF), and Carbohydrate Ratio (ICR). For many people using insulin pumps, these therapy settings are often not correct, given their physiological needs. While …

Exploration In Mental Performance For Division 1 Sec College Football Student Athletes, Alex Burgdorf

Department of Occupational Therapy Entry-Level Capstone Projects

The stigma surrounding mental health in sports has made intervention difficult. “There is a need for various actors to provide more effective strategies to overcome the stigma that surrounds mental illness, increase mental health literacy in the athlete/coach community, and address athlete-specific barriers to seeking treatment for mental illness” (Castadelli-Maia et.al 2019). The athletes in the football program at the University of Tennessee face more pressure today than ever in history. They have their class schedule, practice and training every day, and meetings with their position coaches. Now, with the introduction of name, image, and likeness (NIL) allowing players to …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Statistical Theory For Specialized Linear Regression Adjustment Methods Compared To Multiple Linear Regression In The Presence And Absence Of Interaction Effects, Leon Su

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

When building models to investigate outcomes and variables of interest, researchers often want to adjust for other variables. There is a variety of ways that these adjustments are performed. In this work, we will consider four approaches to adjustment utilized by researchers in various fields. We will compare the efficacy of these methods to what we call the ”true model method”, fitting a multiple linear regression model in which adjustment variables are model covariates. Our goal is to show that these adjustment methods have inferior performance to the true model method by comparing model parameter estimates, power, type I error, …

Realtime Event Detection In Sports Sensor Data With Machine Learning, Mallory Cashman

Honors Theses and Capstones

Machine learning models can be trained to classify time series based sports motion data, without reliance on assumptions about the capabilities of the users or sensors. This can be applied to predict the count of occurrences of an event in a time period. The experiment for this research uses lacrosse data, collected in partnership with SPAITR - a UNH undergraduate startup developing motion tracking devices for lacrosse. Decision Tree and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are trained and perform with high success rates. These models improve upon previous work in human motion event detection and can be used a reference …