Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Environmental Perspective For System Dynamics Modeling Of Stunting Mitigation To Achieve The Sustainable Development Goals In West Sumatra, Indonesia, Elsa Yuniarti, Nabila Azzahra, Yulhendri Yulhendri, Heldi Heldi, Mery Delvina, Saskia Putri Azeli

Kesmas

This study developed a system dynamics model to simulate stunting reduction in West Sumatra Province, Indonesia, by integrating infant and toddler health, maternal health, and environmental determinants. Secondary data from 2020–2024 on low birth weight, immunization, malnutrition, exclusive breastfeeding, maternal chronic energy deficiency, iron and folic acid supplement distribution, sanitation, and safe drinking water access were compiled from West Sumatra Provincial Health Office and Statistics Indonesia, and validated through consultation with five stakeholder institutions. Causal Loop Diagrams mapped feedback relationships among determinants and were translated into Stock Flow Diagrams using Powersim Studio 10. The model was validated through structural verification, …

A Multi-Dimensional Analysis Of China's Future Industry Development Policy Documents, Tianxiang Yao, Wang Xu

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] Future industries are important carriers of new quality productive forces which can play a leading role in the economic and social development. Quantitative analysis and evaluation of China's future industry policies can provide support and reference for the formulation, optimization and adjustment of subsequent policies. [Method/process] Taking a total of 84 policy texts at the central, provincial, municipal and county levels in China as the research objects, a three-dimensional analysis framework of "theme-tool-effectiveness" was constructed. By comprehensively applying LDA thematic analysis, content analysis and PMC index model, theme distribution, content characteristics and comprehensive effectiveness of policy texts were deeply …

Transportation Deserts And Structural Mobility Access In New York City, John Cruz

Student Theses

This study examines structural mobility access across New York City census tracts by constructing a tract-level Mobility Access Index (MAI) that integrates employment accessibility, hospital accessibility, and first-mile subway walking burden using MTA GTFS transit data, NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission trip records, and US Census American Community Survey demographic estimates. Three OLS regression models, supplemented by Lasso, Elastic Net, and Random Forest specifications, test whether structural access gaps are associated with short-distance connector trip intensity and per-worker connector cost burden. Results show that MAI varies substantially across tracts, with high access concentrated in Manhattan and along major subway corridors. …

Research On Academic Journal Evaluation Based On Factor Dimensionality Reduction, Data Weighting, And Journal Characteristics Orientation, Liping Yu, Jing Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] The characteristics of academic journals have important value, and current evaluation systems lack assesment for this dimension. [Method/process] This paper proposes a variable weight method for factor reduction data, firstly uses factor analysis combined with manual classification to determine the characteristics of the journal, and uses Sigmoid function to standardize the public factors to determine the characteristic journals, and then uses the variable weight function to modify the original data for the characteristic indicators of the characteristic journals based on the data of forestry journals in CNKI. Three representative methods including linear weighted aggregation, weighted TOPSIS, and factor analysis, …

Factors Affecting Pedestrian-Vehicle Conflicts: An Empirical Analysis, Christo D. Jamo

Honors Scholar Theses

The number of pedestrian deaths increased by 78% between 2009 and 2023, while other motor vehicle crash deaths increased by 13% in the same period [1]. To identify potential pedestrian safety measures, this study analyzed the effects of location-based demographics, pedestrian phasing type, and other physical infrastructure and behavior variables on the probability of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts at signalized intersections, which is a surrogate measure of crash risk. Data were collected from 55 intersections in Connecticut, and the pedestrian-vehicle interactions were classified by severity based on the Swedish Traffic Conflict Technique: undisturbed passage, potential conflict, minor conflict, or serious conflict. Because …

Coexistence Of“Emotion”And“Rationality”：Analysis Of The Impact Mechanism Of Frequent Reversal Events On The Evolution Of Online Public Opinion, Liqiang Wang, Xueqi Li, Yixian Wang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] In recent years, frequent reversal events have negatively impacted the online media environment, leading to an increasing number of skeptical voices during the evolution of public opinion.These doubts are no longer merely emotional outbursts but also involve rational understanding of the event's authenticity. This study aims to gain a deeper understanding of this phenomenon and attempts to reveal the impact mechanism of frequent reversal events on the evolution of online public opinion. [Method/process] Through surveys and computer simulation experiments, the study analyzes various elements such as individuals, media environment, and evolution patterns in online public opinion,then according to the …

Simulation And Projection Of Glaciers And Their Runoff In Xinjiang Based On Tgsgs, Zhongqin Li, Yefei Yang, Bowen Liu, Huilin Li, Zexin Zhan, Feiteng Wang, Chunhai Xu, Weibo Zhao

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Glaciers are large flowing ice bodies formed from snowfall in cold regions. Due to the intrinsic physical properties of ice and the complexity of boundary conditions, physically based modelling of glacier change remains a global challenge. With support from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ key science infrastructure program for the field station, the Tianshan Glaciological Station completed the Tianshan Glacier Station Glacier Simulator (TGSGS) in 2025. TGSGS features advanced representations of the physical mechanisms driving glacier change and multi-scale ensemble strategy, and is integrated with a reference glacier observation network based on terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), a low-temperature laboratory for …

Complex Systems Mapping Of Fiscal Growth Dynamics At Strategic Maritime Chokepoints Using Time-Series Slopes, Rahul Balamurugan, Preethi Nanjundan, Avichal Sharma

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study examines how maritime and trading states allocate public resources between defence, health, and economic growth around three strategic chokepoints the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Suez Canal. The analysis extends the classic “guns versus butter” framing by treating defence and health spending as co-evolving components of an interconnected fiscal-growth system. Using World Development Indicators data (1999-2024), trend slopes are estimated for military spending (% of GDP), healthcare spending (% of GDP), and GDP growth (annual %). Two derived indicators are computed, a defence-to-health slope ratio (military slope/health slope) and a fiscal-balance proxy (health slope …

Next-Generation Democratic Cyber Statecraft - Balancing The Signal: Shutdown Shocks And Democratic Digital Governance, Scott M. Di Panni

School of Public Policy Capstones

This paper develops Next-Generation Democratic Cyber Statecraft (NG-DCS), a unified strategic doctrine for democratic governments to contest the cognitive domain against authoritarian adversaries. Drawing on twenty-six years of cross-national panel data (1999–2024) spanning 213 countries, game-theoretic modeling, and qualitative case analysis, the paper establishes three interconnected empirical and theoretical foundations. First, cross-national OLS regression across 160+ countries demonstrates that regime type is the dominant structural determinant of internet freedom (R²=0.615, β=2.513, p< 0.001), explaining more than twice the variance attributable to per-capita wealth (R²=0.268). Democratic governance, not economic development, produces open digital environments. Second, a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) difference-in-differences study exploiting government-ordered internet shutdowns as discrete policy interventions finds that digital restrictions causally degrade V-Dem governance quality by 0.21–0.38 standard deviations (p< 0.001 across all specifications). Treatment effects are immediate (β=−0.302 at k=0) and persist through five post-treatment years (β=−0.246 at k=+5), indicating structural rather than transitory governance damage. Parallel trends validation (p=0.352) and Callaway–Sant’Anna heterogeneity-robust estimation (ATT=−0.230, SE=0.077) support causal identification. Instrumental variable triangulation (2SLS β=−0.949, p=0.005) confirms that simultaneity was attenuating, not inflating, the primary estimates. Third, formal game-theoretic analysis reveals that the current U.S.–adversary equilibrium is (Restrain, Escalate)—the risk-dominant but Pareto-inferior outcome of a Stag Hunt structure. China, Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela each occupy structurally distinct positions (Stackelberg commitment, asymmetric two-level, autarky, and reactive trigger, respectively), requiring differentiated doctrinal responses rather than a uniform strategic playbook. Generative AI and algorithmic governance are shown to accelerate cognitive vulnerability by collapsing influence operation costs and exploiting engagement-optimized platform architectures that systematically degrade deliberative capacity in democratic populations.

Availability Model To Evaluate Ai Data Centers’ Role In Grid Stability, Troy Mcsimov, Trevor S. Kunz, Jeffrey Billo

SMU Data Science Review

The United States has made it clear; it is imperative that the US wins the global AI race. This paper focuses on one of the most challenging puzzle pieces surfaced at the POWER Data Center conference (San Antonio, Sept. 30.); for Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) the limiting factor is not generation alone but the need to balance generation and load to preserve grid reliability.

The regulatory landscape fundamentally changed with the passage of Texas Senate Bill 6 in June 2025, which mandates new large loads must "contribute to the recovery of the interconnecting electric utility’s costs" (Texas Legislature, …

Typeface: Machine-Viewing Gentrification On Storefront Imagery In Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brooklyn, Alexander Mcquilkin

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Gentrification—broadly, the replacement of a less powerful group by a more powerful one in an urban context—is oft-discussed in the popular press, but its definition is much-debated in the urban planning literature. Furthermore, academic treatments of displacement understandably focus on measurable yet fairly abstract indicators like changes in rent or income, whereas neighborhood change is often registered by residents on the ground using visual, but difficult-to-quantify markers like retail turnover. This project uses image recognition technology on a set of storefront photos to index the visual streetscape of a neighborhood, as well as to track changes to that portrait over …

Identifying Mobility Hub Suitability In The Mid-Sized United States Urban Area Using Weighted Overlay And Percentile Based Local Peak Analysis, Eric Asplund

Theses and Dissertations

IDENTIFYING MOBILITY HUB SUITABILITY IN THE MID-SIZED UNITED STATES URBAN AREA USING WEIGHTED OVERLAY AND PERCENTILE‑BASED LOCAL PEAK ANALYSIS

By Eric Asplund

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Urban and Regional Planning at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Virginia Commonwealth University, 2026.

Major Director: Dr. Ivan Suen, Ph. D., Associate Professor, Faculty of Urban and Regional Studies and Planning

Shared mobility hubs are increasingly posited in transportation planning as interventions supporting multimodality, sustainability, and equitable access, but guidance on evaluation of potential hub locations remains uneven, particularly in mid-sized United States cities where …

Understanding Motivations And Health Outcomes Of College-Aged Triathletes During Covid-19: A Mixed-Methods Study, Patrick Wilson, Eddie Hill, Justin Haegele, Xihe Zhu

Human Movement Studies & Special Education Faculty Publications

A triathlon is a multi-sport event that consists of three simultaneous events: swimming, biking, and running. This sport has experienced significant growth in the past few decades, with colleges and universities now participating. This exploratory mixed-methods study examined the motivations and perceived health benefits of college triathletes during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the Means-Ends of Recreation Scale and the Perceived Health Outcomes of Recreation Scale (N = 29), as well as semi-structured interviews (N = 4). Results indicate no difference in motives or health outcomes between male and female survey respondents. The thematic analysis of open-ended interview questions highlighted lived …

Swimming In Uncertainty: Filling Data Gaps And Providing An Educational Platform For Beach Water Quality At Tybee Island, Georgia, Lukas Roberson

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

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Swimming in beaches water contaminated with high levels of bacteria can make you sick. Current monitoring at the public beaches on Tybee Island consists of weekly monitoring and enumeration of fecal indicator bacteria that takes 24 hours for results. If the number of bacteria exceed regulatory limits, a public health advisory is issued, and affected waters are retested until …

Modeling Musculoskeletal Combat Casualty Care: Nato Trauma System Performance In Large Scale Combat Operations, Mark P. Cote, Kaitlyn E. Holly, Roman J. Schoenfeld, Matthew R. Bryan, Malina O. Hatton, Mitchel B. Harris, Tracey P. Koehlmoos, Andrew J. Schoenfeld

Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the current North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) trauma system will be effective in the setting of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). We sought to model the efficacy of the NATO trauma system in the setting of LSCO. We also intended to model novel scenarios that could better adapt the current system to LSCO.

METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model for patients with combat musculoskeletal injuries treated within the standard NATO system. The primary outcome of the model was survival. The model's health states were characterized as stable, hypovolemia, sepsis, shock, or death. The model simulated …

Keynote - Data? We Don't Have Time For Data: A Realistic Look At Law Enforcement Use Of And Need For Human Trafficking Data, Doug Gilmer Phd

SMU Human Trafficking Data Conference

Drawing on over 35 years of law enforcement experience (25 years with the Department of Homeland Security), Dr. Gilmer will speak from a government and law enforcement perspective on the need and use for human trafficking data. Some agencies and components of the U.S. government, and individual states, are heavily invested in collecting data to satisfy their reporting requirements. From a law enforcement perspective, however, big human trafficking data sets are rarely examined. Data science in law enforcement is a relatively new phenomenon, and most law enforcement officers do not have the time, resources, or background to collect or analyze …

Community Voices, Climate Action Choices: Working Towards A Resilient Monterey County, Lesley A. Solano Alonso

Capstone Projects and Master's Theses

Vulnerable communities in Monterey County face disproportionate environmental and health impacts due to climate change, yet many residents remain unaware of the tools and resources available to support local action. This capstone project was implemented in partnership with Ecology Action (EA) and the Resilient Central Coast (RCC) campaign to increase awareness and engagement with the RCC platform. Serving diverse communities across Monterey County, the project included bilingual outreach efforts, community tabling, educational presentations, and a climate action survey. Over 650 residents were engaged directly, resulting in 99 new household sign-ups on the RCC website, a major milestone for the agency. …

Analysis Of Systematic Trade-Offs Between Military And Healthcare Expenditure Alongside Gdp Growth Of Select Asian And Western Exporting Economies In The 21st Century, Rahul Balamurugan, Carlos Gershenson, Preethi Nanjundan, Hiroki Sayama

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study explores the complexity in the trade-offs between military expenditure, healthcare expenditure, and GDP growth across select Asian nations and major weapon-exporting countries, examining how nations allocate finite resources between national security and human well-being over the past two decades. Using a systems science approach, the research integrates Granger causality testing to analyze temporal and directional relationships among GDP growth, military expenditure, and healthcare expenditure, uncovering their dynamic interdependencies. The methodology includes trend and slope analysis, Granger causality testing, outlier detection, and clustering to identify heterogeneity in resource allocation strategies. Developed, weapon-exporting nations exhibit complementary trends, with strong causality …

Analysis Of Nuclear Security And Safety Integration Using Survey Responses And Pairwise Comparison Methods, Sheila V. Gbormittah, Theodore A. Thomas, Jason Timothy Harris

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Integrating nuclear security and safety is important for implementing and sustaining nuclear technology because it promises improved and effective management. This integration is an ongoing effort to ensure that both work together with minimal conflicts. This research aimed to determine the preferred level at which nuclear security and nuclear safety integrate by using the pairwise comparison methods of decision-making. This methodology used survey responses from women nuclear professionals to identify the most-desired criteria at three levels: strategic, operational, and cultural. The strategic level includes actions that government officials and regulators can take. The operational level encompasses actions that deliver the …

Empirical Vulnerability Function Development Based On The Damage Caused By The 2014 Chiang Rai Earthquake, Thailand, Patcharavadee Hong, Masashi Matsuoka

Institute for Innovation & Entrepreneurship Publications

Seismic hazards in Thailand are frequently overlooked in disaster management planning, leading to insufficient research and significant economic losses during earthquake events. The 2014 Chiang Rai earthquake exposed critical vulnerabilities in Thailand's building practices due to widespread non-compliance with building codes and limited preparedness. This exposure prompted the development of empirical vulnerability functions using loss data from 15,031 damaged residences. The study analyzed government compensation records, which were standardized using replacement cost metrics. Three distinct models were developed through probabilistic and possibilistic modeling approaches. Residual analysis demonstrated the superior performance of the possibilistic approach, with the Possibilistic-based Vulnerability Function achieving …

The Economic And Environmental Impact Of Shinkansen And High-Speed Rail Infrastructure: A Comparative Analysis Of Economic Growth And Carbon Emissions Reduction, Dillan R. Victory

SPARK Symposium Presentations

The development of Japan's high-speed rail system, the Shinkansen, has played a pivotal role in the country's post-war economic resurgence. Introduced in 1964 with the Tokaidō Shinkansen, this transformative infrastructure investment significantly reduced travel times, bolstered economic activity around station hubs, and facilitated regional development by enabling urban decentralization. This paper explores the long-term economic benefits of high-speed rail, including its impact on land value, business expansion, and carbon emissions. The case study of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen, Japan's latest maglev project, underscores both the economic promise and the political resistance to expansion, particularly in regions such as Shizuoka.

Using …

Understanding The Challenges And Satisfaction Among The Medical Professional Preceptors, Cornelia Ko

West Chester University Doctoral Projects

This study evaluates the Penn Medicine Family Medicine Clerkship program through a mixed-methods approach, exploring the challenges and factors influencing the satisfaction of medical professional preceptors when precepting students. A quantitative survey with 54 preceptor participants reveals the top challenges preceptors face: workload, conflicts with patient care, and limited clinical space. Despite this, there is strong support for the program, with 89% of preceptors enjoying the role and 85% expressing willingness to continue to precept for the next three years. Finally, data analysis shows no statistical correlation between preceptor motivation with gender, ethnicity, age group, years of serving, or total …

Analyzing Car Theft Trends In Central Texas: A Comparative Study Of Waco, College Station, And Killeen, Daniel Njogu

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This study examines motor vehicle theft (MVT) trends from 2019 to 2023 in three Central Texas cities—Waco, College Station, and Killeen—using temporal analysis, geospatial hotspot mapping, and make/model data. In Killeen, thefts generally rose over the period, with notable peaks in October and on Mondays. College Station saw an overall decline in thefts but experienced a seasonal spike each March, and Waco’s thefts increased until around 2021 before beginning to fall. Local festivals—such as the Spirit of Texas in College Station and the Heart O’ Texas Fair in Waco—appear to coincide with these seasonal upticks. Hyundais and Kias were most …

Effect Of Universal Health Coverage On Neonatal Mortality Rate In Sub-Saharan Africa: Addressing Missing Data In Health Indicators, Elizabeth Nalule Arihoona

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This study utilizes two mixed-effects models to examine the effect of Universal Health Coverage on Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) in 30 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000-2019 while addressing the missing data in health indicators. Using natural cubic spline interpolation, I impute the missing values in the health coverage indices to preserve the location- specific trends of the data. Findings indicate that among the health Coverage indices, only Index1, which directly relates to coverage of maternal, newborn and child health services is significantly associated with reduced NMR. While higher Current Health Expenditure is associated with reduced NMR, a higher share …

How Should China Respond To “Pan-Data Sovereignty” Competition Among China, U.S., And Eu—An Analysis Based On The Digital Stack Model?, Yan Liu, Congjing Ran

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Data sovereignty has become deeply intertwined with various economic and social development factors such as technology, trade, economy, culture, society, and politics, leading to a “Pan-Data Sovereignty” competition pattern in the digital space. Through the digital stack model, which examines digital technologies in a layered framework, we can more clearly assess the competitive capacities in“Pan-Data Sovereignty” of China, United States, and European Union. The analysis identifies a three-tiered global “Pan-Data Sovereignty” competition structure among China, U.S., and EU, with each entity holding distinct advantages across various layers of the digital stack. Intense future competition is anticipated in fields such as …

Unlocking The Power Of Data: Enhancing Public Policy Through Advanced Data Infrastructure And Language Model Analysis, Zahid Asghar

CBER Conference

Data is the fundamental building block for advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), general AI (GAI), machine learning (ML), and large language models (LLMs). This study emphasizes the critical need for robust data infrastructure, arguing that without it, countries cannot fully benefit from technological advancements in various economic sectors. Governments possess vast repositories of both structured and unstructured data across multiple domains such as the judiciary, parliaments, and civil bureaucracy. However, these potential goldmines remain untapped due to inadequate data management capabilities and a lack of appreciation for the necessity of high-quality data. The research identifies key issues in public data …

Telemedicine Adoption In Developing Economies: A Systematic Review On The Enablers And Barriers, Zaidbren Macabato, Lemuel Clark Velasco, Art Brian Escabarte, Mae-Lanie Ong Poblete, Armando Isla Jr., Rentor Cafino, Sarah Lizette Aquino-Cafino, Frevy Teofilo-Orencia

Kesmas

Telemedicine’s adoption has been effective in certain contexts despite being controversial in certain settings because of its tendency to cause misdiagnosis and concerns about data privacy. This study aimed to synthesize the research findings on the factors leading to the adoption of telemedicine among developing economies. The study utilized Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis methodology to analyze 27 related literature and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology to map out the factors considered enablers and barriers in adopting telemedicine. Results showed that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions were significant predictors. …

Status Quo Of Large-Scale Models, Risks And Challenges, And Recommended Countermeasures, Le Cheng, Yang Xiao

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Large-scale models (large models) are not only central to technological innovation, but also deeply entwined with national security, economic transformation, and social governance. This study examines the status quo of large-model development, identifies the key risks and challenges, and proposes response strategies, aiming to provide theoretical and policy insights for China’s navigations in global artificial intelligence (AI) competition and advances technological innovation. The research indicates that competition in the large-model market is fierce, while the industry is gradually consolidating. Competition in large models between China and the United States has escalated into a form of geopolitical contest. From a technical …

A Qualitative Study Exploring Graduated Medical Residents’ Research Experiences, Barriers To Publication And Strategies To Improve Publication Rates From Medical Residents, Dorothy Kamya, Brigette Macharia, Wangari Siika, Caroline Mbuba

Anaesthesiology, East Africa

Background: In Kenya, postgraduate medical residents must complete a research dissertation for their Master of Medicine studies. However, the subsequent publication rate is lower than in higher-income settings, limiting the availability of population-specific data. This study explored residents’ experiences with research, reasons for the low publication rate, and strategies to improve publication rates.

Methods: In-depth interviews were conducted with 9 faculty members and non-academic support staff, as well as 18 Master of Medicine graduates who had successfully completed their research projects, to investigate their experiences with conducting, supervising, and publishing research. The interview data was analysed using inductive …

Development Trends Of Large Models And Tencent’S Independent Innovation Practice, Jason Si

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

The article discusses the emerging trends and application prospects of current large models, using Tencent’s Hunyuan large model as an example. It focuses mainly on innovations and implementations of large models in China. Companies like Google, Meta, and OpenAI have launched powerful models such as Google’s Gemini and Meta’s Llama 3, which have made significant progress in multi-modal applications and reasoning capabilities. China’s large models have significantly improved performance and efficiency by adopting the MoE (Mixture of Experts) architecture. Specifically, with its self-developed MoE trillion-parameter large model and deep learning framework, Tencent has made breakthrough advancements in large model technology …