Meteorology Commons^™

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2013, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture

September Flooding in Colorado

Early October Blizzard

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …

Planning And Drought, James C. Schwab

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1: Drought: The Problem.............................................. 1

Water Impacts ............................................................................... 2

Public Health Impacts ......................................................... 4

Environmental Impacts ..................................................... 5

Built Environment Impacts................................................ 6

Secondary Hazards ......................................................... 9

Economic Impacts ................................................................... 10

Drought as a Challenge for Planners .......................................... 13

Chapter 2: Drought: The Knowledge Base ................................................... 15

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Drought ................................................................ 16

Drought and Climate Changes .................................................................................. 19

Tracking Drought: Tools and Resources ................................................................... 20

Using the Drought Resources Toolbox...................................................................... 22

Droughtscape- Fall 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s Report ....................1

Kansas community drought planning workshop Nov. 5 ...... 2

Drought impacts webinars .....3

Drought outlook & summary ... 4

Late summer drought brings more agricultural impacts ....... 6

Plans help ranchers weather drought ................................. 10

NDMC contributions to U2U project ..................................12

Drought Management Database archives strategies................13

QuickDRI will help spot flash droughts................................ 14

NDMC Co-Hosts NASA work- shop......................................15

Wilhite leads Integrated Drought Management Program work....... 15

Speaking of drought ............ 16

Managing #Drought tweet chat transcript ..............................17

Updated USDM website ....... 17

Synoptic-Scale Precursors, Characteristics And Typing Of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Complexes In The Great Plains, Shawn M. Milrad, Cailee M. Kelly

Publications

Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) occur frequently during the warm season in the central U.S. and can produce flooding rains, hail and tornadoes. Previous work has found that the synoptic-scale environment can greatly affect, and be affected by, the development and maintenance of MCCs. Ninetytwo MCC cases from 2006–2011 are manually identified using infrared satellite imagery and partitioned into three types (upstream trough, zonal and ridge) using a unique manual synoptic typing based on 500- hPa height patterns. Upstream trough cases feature an amplified longwave 500-hPa trough upstream of the MCC genesis region (GR), while the 500-hPa flow is relatively flat …

Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Cmip3 And Cmip5 Model-Based Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen Garner, Ming Zhao, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Morris Bender, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac M. Held, Gabriele Villarini

CCPO Publications

Twenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km grid regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model …

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

Climate Change On The Prairie: A Basic Guide To Climate Change In The High Plains Region - Update, Lincoln, Ne

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Global Climate Change

Climate Change in the United States

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

High Plains Region Update: 2010-2012

New Tool: Climate Impact Reporter

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Mesoscale Modeling And Satellite Observation Of Transport And Mixing Of Smoke And Dust Particles Over Northern Sub-Saharan African Region, Zhifeng Yang

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The transport and vertical distribution of smoke and mineral dust aerosols over the Northern Sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region have important implications for regional and global air quality and climate. This study employs ground-based and satellite observations, and numerical simulations conducted with a fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The WRF-Chem simulation is for February 2008 and uses hourly dynamic smoke emissions from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) database derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire products. Model performance of smoke and dust simulation is evaluated using numerous satellite and ground-based …

Droughtscape- Summer 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s Report ....................1

July 25 webinar: Drought management database, NIDIS update..................................... 2

Republican River Basin workshops July 31, August 1.......... 3

Summer climate outlook, spring summary ................................. 4

Spring impacts: wildfire, water, agriculture and business.........6

Data help managers assess Nebraska groundwater declines after drought of 2012........... 10

Tadesse helps Mexico with Veg- DRI concept..........................14

Visiting scholar explores remote sensing of drought in forests....... 15

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum photo recap, details online............ 16

Workshop helps New Mexico ranchers cope with drought ........... 18

Alabama’s new drought plan......... 19

National Drought Forum report........... 19

Drought Impacts Community of Practice report …

An Examination Of The Mechanisms And Environments Supportive Of Bow Echo Mesovortex Genesis, George Limpert

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Low-level mesovortices are associated with enhanced surface wind gusts and high-end wind damage in quasi-linear thunderstorms. Although damage associated with mesovortices can approach that of moderately strong tornadoes, skill in forecasting mesovortices is low. The overarching goal of this work is to understand mesovortices and how they develop, to improve the skill in forecasting them. This was done by developing a climatology of mesovortices, which required a tracking algorithm, and numerical simulations were conducted to answer questions that could not be answered through the observational data. A climatology of mesovortices was constructed from 44 events during 2009 and 2010 to …

Assessing The Predictability Of Convection Initiation Using An Object-Based Approach, Brock James Burghardt

Theses and Dissertations

Improvements in numerical forecasts of deep, moist convection have been notable in recent years and are in large part due to increased computational power allowing for the explicit numerical representation of convection. Accurately forecasting the timing and location of convection initiation (CI), however, remains a substantial forecast challenge. This is attributed to the inherently limited intrinsic predictability of CI due to its dependence on highly non-linear moist physics and fine-scale atmospheric processes that are poorly represented in observations. Because CI is the starting point of deep, moist convection that grows upscale, even small errors in initial convective development can rapidly …

Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part I: Winds, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

A computationally efficient method of producing tropical cyclone (TC) wind analyses is developed and tested, using a hindcast methodology, for 12 Gulf of Mexico storms. The analyses are created by blending synthetic data, generated from a simple parametric model constructed using extended best-track data and climatology, with a first-guess field obtained from the NCEP-NCAR North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Tests are performed whereby parameters in the wind analysis and vortex model are varied in an attempt to best represent the TC wind fields. A comparison between nonlinear and climatological estimates of the TC size parameter indicates that the former yields …

Droughtscape- Spring 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report........................................................................................................1

First quarter climate summary and outlook ........................................................... 2

Impacts: Crop indemnities set records in 2012; water conflicts escalating ............ 4

International meeting recommends countries have drought policies ..................... 8

NDMC plays key role in international drought policy meeting ............................. 9

EDEN and VOAD guide helps build community drought capacity.....................10

Svoboda, other experts and policymakers focus on food and water security.......11

New Mexico ranching workshop set for May 29 in Socorro ................................. 12

Ranch planning updates: archived webinars, new publications ........................... 12

Tune in to the US Drought Monitor Forum, April 16-18.....................................13

Archived webinar looks at using drought …

Remote Sensing Of Surface Visibility From Space: A Look At The United States East Coast, Amy L. Kessner

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

While important for the management of air quality, human health and transportation, surface visibility data currently are only available through ground-based measurements, such as the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), and therefore lack spatial coverage. In analogy to the recent work of using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to derive surface dry aerosol mass concentration at continental-to-global scale for cloud-free conditions, this study evaluates the potential of AOD retrieved from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for deriving surface visibility. For this purpose of evaluation, the truncated and discrete visibility data from daily weather reports are not suitable and the …

Leeside Boundary Layer Confluence And Afternoon Thunderstorms Over Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, Mark Jury, Sen Chiao

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The midsummer boundary layer (BL) circulation and afternoon thunderstorm convection on the lee side of Puerto Rico is studied using observations and high-resolution models. Satellite infrared data help to identify cases on 5 and 14 June 2010 when midday surface temperatures show a 2°C gradient between land and sea and afternoon cloud-top temperatures <−60°C. Acoustic sounder profiles are analyzed for climatology, wind shear, turbulence, and diurnal cycles in the 40-300-m layer. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate that sea-breeze flow is entrained into convective cells near Mayaguez, Puerto Rico. The simulated BL wind shear is too weak (0.5 × 10−2 s−1) in comparison with the acoustic sounder (2 × 10−2 s−1). Model 900-hPa winds are southeasterly and spread simulated convection too far north in comparison with radar. The pattern of near-surface winds in the island wake triggers afternoon thunderstorms near Mayaguez. A feature of the confluent circulation around Puerto Rico is opposing shear zones on the leeward corners of the island and a sea breeze of 5 m s−1 over the west coast during midday. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] . Copyright of Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.).

Regional Climate Trends And Scenarios For The U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate Of The U.S. Great Plains, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Laura E. Stevens, Scott E. Stevens, Liqiang Sun, Emily Janssen, Donald Wuebbles, Michael C. Kruk, Devin Thomas, Martha Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Kevin Robbins, Luigi Romolo, Adnan Akyuz, Tapan B. Pathak, Tony R. Bergantino, J. Greg Dobson

HPRCC Personnel Publications

This document is one of series of regional climate descriptions designed to provide input that can be used in the development of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). As part of a sustained assessment approach, it is intended that these documents will be updated as new and well-vetted model results are available and as new climate scenario needs become clear. It is also hoped that these documents (and associated data and resources) are of direct benefit to decision makers and communities seeking to use this information in developing adaptation plans.

There are nine reports in this series, one each for eight …

Evaluation Of Wrf-Sfire Performance With Field Observations From The Fireflux Experiment, A. Kochanski, M. Jenkins, J. Mandel, J. Beezley, Craig Clements, S. Krueger

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

This study uses in situ measurements collected during the FireFlux field experiment to evaluate and improve the performance of the coupled atmosphere–fire model WRF-SFIRE. The simulation by WRF-SFIRE of the experimental burn shows that WRF-SFIRE is capable of providing realistic head-fire rate of spread and vertical temperature structure of the fire plume, and fire-induced surface flow and vertical velocities within the plume up to 10 m above ground level. The simulation captured the changes in wind speed and direction before, during, and after fire front passage, along with the arrival times of wind speed, temperature, and updraft maxima, at the …

Kinematic Structure Of A Wildland Fire Plume Observed By Doppler Lidar, A. Charland, Craig Clements

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Wildland fires present a challenging environment to make meteorological measurements. Observations in the vicinity of wildland fires are needed to better understand fire-atmosphere interactions and to provide data for the evaluation of coupled fire-atmosphere models. An observational study was conducted during a low-intensity prescribed fire in an area of complex terrain with grass fuels east of San José, California. A ground-based scanning Doppler lidar acquired radial wind velocities and backscatter intensity in and around the fire plume from multiple horizontal and vertical scans. The development of a convergence zone was consistently observed to exist downwind of the plume and was …

Droughtscape- Winter 2013, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...................................................................................1

Climatological overview of drought in 2012 ...................................... 2

Climatological overview of drought, Oct.-Dec. 2012.........................5

Impacts of drought in 2012 ................................................................. 6

Drought planning webinars scheduled for ranch advisors ..............10

UNL honors NDMC for exceptional service ...................................10

Report from the emerging community of drought planners ...........11

Feb. 6 webinar on drought simulations ............................................ 11

Climate Masters course starting ......................................................12

Climate Change in the Midwest book includes drought ................12

Video highlights from coverage of drought of 2012..........................13

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum 2013 .................................................. 13

UN’s High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy .................... 14

NDMC collaboration with India, Czech …

Numerical Investigations Of Convective Initiation In Barbados, Kim Whitehall, Sen Chiao, Margarette Mayers-Als

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Localized convection in Barbados accounts for hazardous conditions and a significant percentage of the island’s annual rainfall. The feature results in rainfall accumulations exceeding 50 mm in 3 hours or less, over isolated locations. Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations are conducted for a rapid convective initiated and heavy precipitation event of 26 August 2008 over Barbados. The simulation results from the 1 km grid resolution domain depict that the shallow topography on the island plays a significant role in enhancing convective activity under weak synoptically disturbed conditions. The model results also demonstrate that the driving forces for the …

Turbulent Collision-Coalescence In Maritime Shallow Convection, A. A. Wyszogrodzki, W.W. Grabowski, L. P. Wang, Orlando Ayala

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

This paper discusses cloud simulations aiming at quantitative assessment of the effects of cloud turbulence on rain development in shallow ice-free convective clouds. Cloud fields from large-eddy simulations (LES) applying bin microphysics with the collection kernel enhanced by cloud turbulence are compared to those with the standard gravitational collection kernel. Simulations for a range of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are contrasted. Details on how the parameterized turbulent collection kernel is used in LES simulations are presented. Because of the disparity in spatial scales between the bottom-up numerical studies guiding the turbulent kernel development and the top-down LES simulations of …

Metr 200: Weather And Climate—A Peer Review Of Teaching Project Benchmark Portfolio, Matthew S. Van Den Broeke

UNL Faculty Course Portfolios

This benchmark portfolio is meant to be an assessment of how well the objectives of METR 200 (Weather and Climate) are being attained by students in several classifications of academic major. Students from a wide range of backgrounds enroll in this course as a general science elective, and for many, it will be the only science course taken in college. Thus, it is important that course material be sufficiently accessible for all students, while providing meaningful information which will be applicable by students of all backgrounds once they leave the course. In this portfolio, an analysis will be presented showing …

Investigations Of Cloud Microphysical Response To Mixing Using Digital Holography, Matthew Jacob Beals

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports - Open

Cloud edge mixing plays an important role in the life cycle and development of clouds. Entrainment of subsaturated air affects the cloud at the microscale, altering the number density and size distribution of its droplets. The resulting effect is determined by two timescales: the time required for the mixing event to complete, and the time required for the droplets to adjust to their new environment. If mixing is rapid, evaporation of droplets is uniform and said to be homogeneous in nature. In contrast, slow mixing (compared to the adjustment timescale) results in the droplets adjusting to the transient state of …

Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions From A Waste Lagoon, Arturo I. Quintanar, Rezaul Mamood, Nanh Lovanh, Justin M. Rawley, Evi Becerra-Acosta, John H. Loughrin

HPRCC Personnel Publications

A cost-effective approach was used to investigate the relationship between emission of the greenhouse gases (GHG), namely, CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O and energy fluxes from a swine waste lagoon. Energy fluxes were calculated using the Penman method. The energy fluxes showed a diurnal pattern as expected of such fluxes. We found that air temperature and latent energy, lagoon surface temperature and solar radiation, as well as air temperature and wind speed can be used to predict for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions, respectively. Comparison of observed and predicted …

Climate Change: What Does It Mean For Nebraska?, Martha D. Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Tapan B. Pathak, Kenneth G. Hubbard

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Because Nebraska’s location on the North American continent is far removed from large bodies of water, Nebraskans experience a strong continental type climate. As such, residents do not benefit from the moderating influence of the ocean, and temperatures can have wide swings from day to day and season to season. Typical characteristics for a continental climate at this latitude are large temperature variability with warm summers dominated by convective thunderstorms, and cold winters influenced by snow and wind from mid-latitude cyclones.

Ace-Fts Observations Of Pyrogenic Trace Species In Boreal Biomass Burning Plumes During Bortas, K. A. Tereszchuk, G. G. Abad, C. Clerbaux, J. Hadji-Lazaro, D. Hurtmans, P. F. Coheur, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

To further our understanding of the effects of biomass burning emissions on atmospheric composition, the BORTAS campaign (BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites) was conducted on 12 July to 3 August 2011 during the boreal forest fire season in Canada. The simultaneous aerial, ground and satellite measurement campaign sought to record instances of boreal biomass burning to measure the tropospheric volume mixing ratios (VMRs) of short- and long-lived trace molecular species from biomass burning emissions. The goal was to investigate the connection between the composition and the distribution of these pyrogenic outflows and …

Ace-Fts Observations Of Acetonitrile In The Lower Stratosphere, J. J. Harrison, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

This work reports the first infrared satellite remote-sensing measurements of acetonitrile (CH₃CN) in the Earth's atmosphere using solar occultation measurements made by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) between 2004 and 2011. The retrieval scheme uses new quantitative laboratory spectroscopic measurements of acetonitrile (Harrison and Bernath, 2012). Although individual ACE-FTS profile measurements are dominated by measurement noise, median profiles in 10 degrees latitude bins show a steady decline in volume mixing ratio from similar to 150 ppt (parts per trillion) at 11.5 km to < 40 ppt at 25.5-29.5 km. These new measurements agree well with the scant available air-and balloon-borne data in the lower stratosphere. An acetonitrile stratospheric lifetime of 73 ± 20 yr has been determined.

The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity And Temperature Trends For Stratospheric Water, S. Fueglistaler, Y. S. Liu, T. J. Flannaghan, P. H. Haynes, D. P. Dee, W. J. Read, E. E. Remsberg, L. W. Thomason, D. F. Hurst, J. R. Lanzante, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual …