Meteorology Commons^™

Information Content Of Seasonal Forecasts In A Changing Climate, Nir Krakauer, Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, Hannah Aizenman

Publications and Research

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting …

Droughtscape- Fall 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report ....................... 1

Updated resources ................... 1

Drought outlook and review... 2

2012 and past droughters..... 4

Summer impacts summary.... 6

Urban planners and drought..... 9

USDM wins CLEAN seal... 10

Meixiu Yu's Chinese SPEI... 11

Ethiopian project..... 12

Mexican VegDRI.... 13

Drought monitor sculpture.... 14

Droughtscape- Summer 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report ....................... 1

Drought expanse....................... 1

Upcoming ranch workshops.... 3

Drought outlook and review ... 4

Spring impacts summary ......... 6

Hawaii impact workshops........ 9

Remote sensing of drought.... 10

China workshop ...................... 12

Droughtscape- Spring 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report......................1

Climate Masters ..................... 1

Ranch plan workshop ............. 3

Winter climate summary ........ 4

Winter impacts summary ....... 6

Zhao research.........................9

Getachew research ..............10

Other international news......12

Wardlow move ..................... 13

IPCC disaster report .............14

Droughtscape- Winter 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Drought Planning for Kansas Ranchers Jan. 21

South Hoping La Niña Dryness Stays Away

2011 Brought Record-Breaking Extent of D4

Reported Impacts Ease as Growing Season Ends

Disaster Planning in Nanjing at Hohai U

Ag, Fire and Water Supply Topped 2011 Impacts

Simulation Of Coastal Inundation Instigated By Storm Surge And River Discharge In The Chesapeake Bay Using Sub-Grid Modeling Coupled With Lidar Data, J. D. Loftis, H. V. Wang

Presentations

Sub-grid modeling is a novel method by which water level elevations on the sub-grid level can be obtained through the combination of water levels and velocities efficiently calculated at the coarse computational grid, the discretized bathymetric depths, and local friction parameters without resorting to solve the full set of equations. Sub-grid technology essentially allows velocity to be determined rationally and efficiently at the sub-grid level. This salient feature enables coastal flooding to be addressed in a single cross-scale model from the ocean to the upstream river channel without overly refining the grid resolution. To this end, high-resolution DEMs will be …

A Synoptic Perspective Of The Record 1-2 May 2010 Mid-South Heavy Precipitation Event, Joshua D. Durkee, Lee Campbell, Kyle Berry, Dustin Jordan, Gregory Goodrich, Rezaul Mahmood, Stuart Foster

HPRCC Personnel Publications

During 1–2 May 2010, a series of strong thunderstorms led to 41, 57, and 43 tornado, severe wind, and severe hail reports, respectively, across portions of the southern United States. In addition to severe weather, these storms also distributed recordsetting rainfall amounts across the mid-South region, which contributed to historic flooding across portions of central and western Kentucky and Tennessee (Fig. 1). This heavy precipitation event was sampled by multiple surface observational networks, including (but not limited to) 48 research-grade automated stations from the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet .org), first-order automated stations from the National Weather Service (NWS; www.ncdc.noaa.gov /oa/ncdc.html), and …

National Integrated Drought Information System Central U.S. 2012 Drought Assessment, Natalie Umphlett, Michael S. Timlin, Brian Fuchs, Wendy Ryan, Nolan Doesken, Jim Angel, Olivia Kellner, Harry J. Hillaker, Mary Knapp, Xiaomao Lin, Stu Foster, Jeff Andresen, Aaron Pollyea, Greg Spoden, Pat Guinan, Adnan Akyüz, Jeffrey C. Rogers, Laura M. Edwards, Tony Bergantino

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Conditions leading into 2012 gave scant indication of what was to come for a 15-state region in the central United States, extending from Colorado, Wyoming, and North Dakota on the west to Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan on the east.

The drought of 2012 was the first since 1988 that impacted almost the entire Corn Belt. It intensified quickly, catching many by surprise.

We hope to learn from this event to help better plan and prepare for the next drought. The full central U.S. 2012 drought assessment, “From too much to too little,” aims to identify the events of 2012 and …

From Too Much To Too Little: How The Central U.S. Drought Of 2012 Evolved Out Of One Of The Most Devastating Floods On Record In 2011, Brian Fuchs, Natalie Umphlett, Michael S. Timlin, Wendy Ryan, Nolan Doesken, Jim Angel, Olivia Kellner, Harry J. Hillaker, Mary Knapp, Xiaomao Lin, Stu Foster, Jeff Andresen, Aaron Pollyea, Greg Spoden, Adnan Akyuz, Jeffrey C. Rogers, Laura M. Edwards, Dennis Todey, Tony Bergantino

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Table of Contents

Section 1: Introduction....................................................................... 1

Section 2: Regional Drought Perspective................................. 2

Section 3: State Drought Perspectives........................................ 3

Section 3.1: Colorado........................................................................... 20

Section 3.2: Illinois.................................................................. 25

Section 3.3: Indiana................................................. 29

Section 3.4: Iowa...................... 36

Section 3.5: Kansas............................................................... 42

Section 3.6: Kentucky............................................................................ 46

Section 3.7: Michigan.............................. 52

Section 3.8: Minnesota............................................................ 58

Section 3.9: Missouri..................................................... 63

Section 3.10: Nebraska................................................. 67

Section 3.11: North Dakota............................................ 73

Section 3.12: Ohio................................................... 79

Section 3.13: South Dakota..................................... 85

Section 3.14: Wyoming........................................... 96

Section 4: Conclusions.............................................................. 99