Meteorology Commons^™

Information Content Of Seasonal Forecasts In A Changing Climate, Nir Krakauer, Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, Hannah Aizenman

Publications and Research

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting …

Comparison And Validation Of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (Trmm) Rainfall Algorithms In Tropical Cyclones, Joseph P. Zagrodnik

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall retrieval algorithms are evaluated in tropical cyclones (TCs). Differences between the Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals are found to be related to the storm region (inner core vs. rainbands) and the convective nature of the precipitation as measured by radar reflectivity and ice scattering signature. In landfalling TCs, the algorithms perform differently depending on whether the rainfall is located over ocean, land, or coastal surfaces. Various statistical techniques are applied to quantify these differences and identify the discrepancies in rainfall detection and intensity. Ground validation is accomplished by comparing the …

Droughtscape- Fall 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report ....................... 1

Updated resources ................... 1

Drought outlook and review... 2

2012 and past droughters..... 4

Summer impacts summary.... 6

Urban planners and drought..... 9

USDM wins CLEAN seal... 10

Meixiu Yu's Chinese SPEI... 11

Ethiopian project..... 12

Mexican VegDRI.... 13

Drought monitor sculpture.... 14

Retrieval Of Sub-Pixel-Based Fire Intensity And Its Application For Characterizing Smoke Injection Heights And Fire Weather In North America, David Peterson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

For over two decades, satellite sensors have provided the locations of global fire activity with ever-increasing accuracy. However, the ability to measure fire intensity, know as fire radiative power (FRP), and its potential relationships to meteorology and smoke plume injection heights, are currently limited by the pixel resolution. This dissertation describes the development of a new, sub-pixel-based FRP calculation (FRP_f) for fire pixels detected by the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detection algorithm (Collection 5), which is subsequently applied to several large wildfire events in North America. The methodology inherits an earlier bi-spectral algorithm for retrieving sub-pixel …

Droughtscape- Summer 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report ....................... 1

Drought expanse....................... 1

Upcoming ranch workshops.... 3

Drought outlook and review ... 4

Spring impacts summary ......... 6

Hawaii impact workshops........ 9

Remote sensing of drought.... 10

China workshop ...................... 12

Periodicities Of Peak Current And Flash Multiplicity In Cloud To Ground Lightning, Alexander R. Gibbs

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Research on lightning has been conducted on various topics including thunderstorm electrification and climatology of lightning strikes however; there are still some characteristics of lightning that are not well known, such as flash multiplicity and peak current as a function of individual thunderstorms. These characteristics are the leading cause of injuries and damage each year. This study examines a severe weather event in Minnesota on 16 September 2006, in order to determine what may cause peak current and flash multiplicity. Cycles in peak current and flash multiplicity are identified and then associated with CAPE to determine if a thunderstorm’s updraft …

Droughtscape- Spring 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report......................1

Climate Masters ..................... 1

Ranch plan workshop ............. 3

Winter climate summary ........ 4

Winter impacts summary ....... 6

Zhao research.........................9

Getachew research ..............10

Other international news......12

Wardlow move ..................... 13

IPCC disaster report .............14

Water And Energy Balance Response Of A Riparian Wetland To The Removal Of Phragmites Australis, Phillip Mykleby

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Vegetation and climate both play integral roles in water availability, particularly for arid to semi-arid regions. Changes in these variables can lead to extreme shortages in water for regions that rely on water for crop irrigation (i.e., the Great Plains). The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of vegetation on water availability in the Republican River basin in central Nebraska. Decreases in streamflow have been observed in the river basin for many years and, as a result, an invasive riparian plant species (Phragmites australis) is being removed in an effort to reduce evapotranspiration and reclaim …

Droughtscape- Winter 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Drought Planning for Kansas Ranchers Jan. 21

South Hoping La Niña Dryness Stays Away

2011 Brought Record-Breaking Extent of D4

Reported Impacts Ease as Growing Season Ends

Disaster Planning in Nanjing at Hohai U

Ag, Fire and Water Supply Topped 2011 Impacts

Ua94/6/10 Student / Alumni Personal Papers Wku Carl Ellis, Wku Archives

WKU Archives Collection Inventories

Scientific notebooks used by Carl Ellis during his years at WKU.

A Synoptic Perspective Of The Record 1-2 May 2010 Mid-South Heavy Precipitation Event, Joshua D. Durkee, Lee Campbell, Kyle Berry, Dustin Jordan, Gregory Goodrich, Rezaul Mahmood, Stuart Foster

HPRCC Personnel Publications

During 1–2 May 2010, a series of strong thunderstorms led to 41, 57, and 43 tornado, severe wind, and severe hail reports, respectively, across portions of the southern United States. In addition to severe weather, these storms also distributed recordsetting rainfall amounts across the mid-South region, which contributed to historic flooding across portions of central and western Kentucky and Tennessee (Fig. 1). This heavy precipitation event was sampled by multiple surface observational networks, including (but not limited to) 48 research-grade automated stations from the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet .org), first-order automated stations from the National Weather Service (NWS; www.ncdc.noaa.gov /oa/ncdc.html), and …

National Integrated Drought Information System Central U.S. 2012 Drought Assessment, Natalie Umphlett, Michael S. Timlin, Brian Fuchs, Wendy Ryan, Nolan Doesken, Jim Angel, Olivia Kellner, Harry J. Hillaker, Mary Knapp, Xiaomao Lin, Stu Foster, Jeff Andresen, Aaron Pollyea, Greg Spoden, Pat Guinan, Adnan Akyüz, Jeffrey C. Rogers, Laura M. Edwards, Tony Bergantino

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Conditions leading into 2012 gave scant indication of what was to come for a 15-state region in the central United States, extending from Colorado, Wyoming, and North Dakota on the west to Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan on the east.

The drought of 2012 was the first since 1988 that impacted almost the entire Corn Belt. It intensified quickly, catching many by surprise.

We hope to learn from this event to help better plan and prepare for the next drought. The full central U.S. 2012 drought assessment, “From too much to too little,” aims to identify the events of 2012 and …

From Too Much To Too Little: How The Central U.S. Drought Of 2012 Evolved Out Of One Of The Most Devastating Floods On Record In 2011, Brian Fuchs, Natalie Umphlett, Michael S. Timlin, Wendy Ryan, Nolan Doesken, Jim Angel, Olivia Kellner, Harry J. Hillaker, Mary Knapp, Xiaomao Lin, Stu Foster, Jeff Andresen, Aaron Pollyea, Greg Spoden, Adnan Akyuz, Jeffrey C. Rogers, Laura M. Edwards, Dennis Todey, Tony Bergantino

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Table of Contents

Section 1: Introduction....................................................................... 1

Section 2: Regional Drought Perspective................................. 2

Section 3: State Drought Perspectives........................................ 3

Section 3.1: Colorado........................................................................... 20

Section 3.2: Illinois.................................................................. 25

Section 3.3: Indiana................................................. 29

Section 3.4: Iowa...................... 36

Section 3.5: Kansas............................................................... 42

Section 3.6: Kentucky............................................................................ 46

Section 3.7: Michigan.............................. 52

Section 3.8: Minnesota............................................................ 58

Section 3.9: Missouri..................................................... 63

Section 3.10: Nebraska................................................. 67

Section 3.11: North Dakota............................................ 73

Section 3.12: Ohio................................................... 79

Section 3.13: South Dakota..................................... 85

Section 3.14: Wyoming........................................... 96

Section 4: Conclusions.............................................................. 99

Toward A Framework For Systematic Error Modeling Of Spaceborne Precipitation Radar With Noaa/Nssl Ground Radar Based National Mosaic Qpe, Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter, Y. Hong, J. J. Gourley, S. Chen, Z. Flamig, J. Zhang, M. Schwaller, W. Peterson, Eyal Amitai

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Characterization of the error associated with satellite rainfall estimates is a necessary component of deterministic and probabilistic frameworks involving spaceborne passive and active microwave measurements for applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards related to extreme rainfall events. The authors focus here on the error structure of NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) at ground. The problem is addressed by comparison of PR QPEs with reference values derived from ground-based measurements using NOAA/NSSL ground radar based National Mosaic and QPE system (NMQ/Q2). A preliminary investigation of this subject has been …

Assessing Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates In Semiarid Watersheds Using The Usda-Ars Walnut Gulch Gauge Network And Trmm Pr, Eyal Amitai, Carl L. Unkrich, David C. Goodrich, Emad Habib, Bryson Thill

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

The rain gauge network associated with the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona provides a unique opportunity for direct comparisons of in situ measurements and satellite-based instantaneous rain rate estimates like those from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR). The WGEW network is the densest rain gauge network in the PR coverage area for watersheds greater than 10 km(2). It consists of 88 weighing rain gauges within a 149-km(2) area. On average, approximately 10 gauges can be found in each PR field of view (similar to 5-km diameter). All gauges are very well synchronized with …