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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Evaluating Preferred Direction Tropical Cyclone Track Variability In An Operational Global Ensemble Prediction System, Travis Elless
Evaluating Preferred Direction Tropical Cyclone Track Variability In An Operational Global Ensemble Prediction System, Travis Elless
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Ensemble forecasts of Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Sandy (2012) highlight instances where variability in tropical cyclone (TC) position forecasts are stretched along a preferred direction. The goal of this thesis is to analyze this stretching of variability in a global ensemble prediction system, particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to determine how often and under what conditions does variability stretching occur, and ultimately what feature(s) are responsible for generating this variability.