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Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part Ii: Waves, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo
Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part Ii: Waves, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo
Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications
A wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis produced from a combination of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and a parametric wind model. The default drag parameterization is replaced by one that is more in line with recent studies where a cap at weak-to-moderate wind speeds is applied. Quadrant-based significant wave height (Hs) statistics are composited in a storm-relative reference frame and stratified by the radius of maximum wind, storm speed, and storm intensity. …
Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part I: Winds, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo
Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part I: Winds, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo
Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications
A computationally efficient method of producing tropical cyclone (TC) wind analyses is developed and tested, using a hindcast methodology, for 12 Gulf of Mexico storms. The analyses are created by blending synthetic data, generated from a simple parametric model constructed using extended best-track data and climatology, with a first-guess field obtained from the NCEP-NCAR North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Tests are performed whereby parameters in the wind analysis and vortex model are varied in an attempt to best represent the TC wind fields.Acomparison between nonlinear and climatological estimates of the TC size parameter indicates that the former yields a much …