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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Comparing The Model-Simulated Global Warming Signal To Observations Using Empirical Estimates Of Unforced Noise, Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Comparing The Model-Simulated Global Warming Signal To Observations Using Empirical Estimates Of Unforced Noise, Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface …