Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 2 of 2
Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
The Influence Of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts Of Convection Initiation, Alexandra Marie Keclik
The Influence Of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts Of Convection Initiation, Alexandra Marie Keclik
Theses and Dissertations
The influence of assimilating targeted meso-α- to synoptic-scale observations collected in the upstream, pre-convective environment upon subsequent short-range ensemble forecasts of convection initiation (CI) across the central United States for the fifteen aircraft missions conducted by the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) in May and June 2013 is evaluated in this study. Utilizing the ensemble Kalman filter implementation within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed software package as coupled to version 3.4.1 of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, two nearly-identical thirty- member ensembles of short-range forecasts are conducted for each mission. Initial conditions for one ensemble …
Predictability Of Sea Ice Near Bifurcations, Dawn Marie Kopacz
Predictability Of Sea Ice Near Bifurcations, Dawn Marie Kopacz
Theses and Dissertations
There is evidence in Earth’s history of relatively stable climate regimes abruptly transitioning to alternative states. It has been argued that the greatest potential for such abrupt transitions in Earth’s system in the near future is located in the Arctic. Here we analyze the Arctic sea ice evolution of two current generation climate models that exhibit critical transitions. We demonstrate the detectability of two early warning signals: increased variance and increased autocorrelation. We introduce another metric that forewarns of abrupt changes in sea ice; a decrease in predictability before the threshold points. Observations of Arctic sea ice extent are searched …