Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 1 of 1
Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Some Trends In Forecast Skill At The National Severe Storms Forecast Center, Allen Pearson, Steven J. Weiss
Some Trends In Forecast Skill At The National Severe Storms Forecast Center, Allen Pearson, Steven J. Weiss
United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications
Tornado watch and severe local storm outlook verification statistics reveal the trends in forecast skill at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. The skill level of the outlook has been steadily increasing since 1973. The percentage of watches verifying has been gradually increasing since 1970. While the probability of detection for tornadoes has decreased slightly since 1974, this appears to be highly correlated with the number of outbreak tornadoes reported in a given year. During significant tornado days, a much higher degree of skill is exhibited for both outlooks and watches. Factors influencing the results are discussed, including the impact …