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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Stochastic model error schemes, such as the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) and independent SPPT (iSPPT) schemes, have become an increasingly utilized method to represent model error associated with uncertain subgrid-scale processes in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). While much of the current literature focuses on how stochastic methods influence ensemble skill, relatively less attention is given to the processes by which these schemes lead to forecast variability. In this vein, this dissertation examines the physical processes by which the application of SPPT and iSPPT to the microphysics, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and radiation parameterization schemes yields rainfall forecast variability. These …
Predictability Of African Easterly Waves In An Operational Ensemble Prediction System, Travis J. Elless
Predictability Of African Easterly Waves In An Operational Ensemble Prediction System, Travis J. Elless
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
African easterly waves (AEWs) are the primary synoptic-scale weather feature found in sub-Saharan Africa during boreal summer. Many studies have used observations and idealized models to highlight processes associated with the movement and growth of AEWs, yet there have been few studies documenting the performance of operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for these phenomena. Here, the predictability of AEWs in ECMWF EPS forecasts is assessed during two periods of enhanced AEW activity (July--September 2007--2009 and 2011--2013). Specifically, AEW predictability is analyzed through three main areas of focus: 1) verifying AEW position and intensity forecasts, and assessing their relation to convective …
Ensemble Variability In Rainfall Forecasts Of Hurricane Irene (2011), Molly Becker Smith
Ensemble Variability In Rainfall Forecasts Of Hurricane Irene (2011), Molly Becker Smith
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
As tropical cyclones (TCs) move into the midlatitudes, they are often associated with extensive heavy precipitation. This precipitation can lead to widespread flooding events, such as occurred with Hurricane Irene (2011) over the northeastern United States. Despite the high-impact nature of these events, there are relatively few studies that explore the sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to model initial conditions, beyond focusing on the variability in forecast TC track.