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Theses and Dissertations

Long-range weather forecasting

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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology

Long Range Forecast Possibilities For X-Band Radar Construction On Shemya, Brian K. Schroeder May 2002

Long Range Forecast Possibilities For X-Band Radar Construction On Shemya, Brian K. Schroeder

Theses and Dissertations

Current moisture initialization sources lack the spatial and temporal resolution required for mesoscale moisture forecast accuracy critical for military operations. The Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite constellation provides an opportunity to extract accurate moisture observations based on the refraction of the GPS signal through the troposphere. GPS-derived precipitable water (PW) from two different research areas was independently compared with the Air Force Weather Agency s (AFWA's) MM5 PW model output. Results were concurrent with similar studies comparing GPS-derived PW with numerical weather models. The mean correlation in CONUS was 92.5%, while in Alaska it was 72.8%. Mean model biases were …


Designing An Algorithm To Predict The Intensity Of The Severe Weather Season, Hugh J. Freestrom Mar 2002

Designing An Algorithm To Predict The Intensity Of The Severe Weather Season, Hugh J. Freestrom

Theses and Dissertations

The Mesoscale Model 5th Generation (MM5) is used for operational support to Air Force missions in the Alaskan Theater. The 11th Operational Weather squadron has identified problems with the MM5 producing excessively warm surface temperatures. The Polar MM5 (PMM5), developed by the Byrd Polar Research Center for high latitude ice sheets, is tested over the Alaskan domains used by the Air Force Weather Agency to determine the utility in replacing the MM5 with the PMM5. The verification of surface temperature, pressure and wind as well as upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and relative humidity of 27-hour PMM5 forecasts are compared to …


Exploration Of Teleconnection Indices For Long-Range Seasonal Temperature Forecasts, Robb M. Randall Mar 2002

Exploration Of Teleconnection Indices For Long-Range Seasonal Temperature Forecasts, Robb M. Randall

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research was to examine the possibility of establishing guidance for lightning avoidance and lightning warning criteria based upon lightning radar reflectivity signatures. Determining how far naturally occurring lightning normally travels from thunderstorms can provide insight to decision makers concerning in-flight and ground safety measures. 3D lightning data are merged with archived weather radar data. To analyze the radar characteristics of the lightning data, radar data are interpolated to a 3D grid of reflectivity. Lightning flashes were analyzed to resolve the reflectivity of the flash origin and to determine the distance of the flash origin from the …