Meteorology Commons^™

Assessing The Predictability Of Convection Initiation Using An Object-Based Approach, Brock James Burghardt

Theses and Dissertations

Improvements in numerical forecasts of deep, moist convection have been notable in recent years and are in large part due to increased computational power allowing for the explicit numerical representation of convection. Accurately forecasting the timing and location of convection initiation (CI), however, remains a substantial forecast challenge. This is attributed to the inherently limited intrinsic predictability of CI due to its dependence on highly non-linear moist physics and fine-scale atmospheric processes that are poorly represented in observations. Because CI is the starting point of deep, moist convection that grows upscale, even small errors in initial convective development can rapidly …