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Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification In Environments Of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs : Environmental Influences And Convective Characteristics, Michael Fischer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones that undergo a period of rapid intensification are particularly susceptible to large errors. For those storms that interact with an upper-tropospheric trough, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are complicated, as upper-tropospheric troughs can provide unique intensification mechanisms, but are often associated with unfavorable environmental conditions. Although tropical cyclones in environments with nearby upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with lesser intensification rates than tropical cyclones in environments devoid of upper-tropospheric troughs, some tropical cyclone--trough interactions are associated with a period of rapid intensification. This dissertation utilizes reanalysis output, satellite observations, and ensemble modeling simulations to understand whether rapid …