Meteorology Commons^™

Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq

Faculty Publications

Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key …

Slides: Adapting To Climate Change: Lessons Learnt From The Australian Water Experience, Will Fargher

Conversation with Water Management Reps from Colorado and Australia: "Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons Learned from Australia" (February 14)

Presenter: Will Fargher, National Water Commission, Australian Government

18 slides [4 have titles only and are missing images]

Stochastic Simulation Of Daily Rainfall, David M. Allen, C. T. Haan, Don Linton, Jim Street, David Jordan

KWRRI Research Reports

The design of many water resources projects requires knowledge of possible long-term rainfall patterns. In this project a stochastic model based on a first order Markov chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall at a point. The model is applicable to any point in Kentucky (and other areas with similar rainfall patterns).

The model in its present form is useful in providing rainfall inputs into hydrologic models for designing water supply facilities and other water resources systems. The model uses historical rainfall data to estimate the Markov transitional probabilities. A separate matrix is estimated for each month of the year. …

Evaluation Of Runoff Coefficients From Small Natural Drainage Areas, Carlos Fix Miller, L. Douglas James

KWRRI Research Reports

The Kentucky Department of Highways, as do most other agencies which build small drainage structures, estimates flood peaks as the product of a runoff coefficient, a rainfall intensity, and the drainage area, Available procedures were applied to 39 gaged watersheds in and near Kentucky and compared with the results of frequency analysis of historical stream gage records. The methods consistently underestimated the flood peak.

Therefore, a more intensive study (using the Stanford Watershed Model) of the runoff coefficient was undertaken by dividing it into overland flow and streamflow components. A set of curves was developed based on the 50-year event …