Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 1 of 1
Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay S. Hobgood
A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay S. Hobgood
Geography Faculty Research
An alternative 24-h statistical hurricane intensity model is presented and verified for 13 hurricanes during the 2004–05 seasons. The model uses a new method involving a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to select from a collection of multiple regression equations. These equations were developed to predict the future 24-h wind speed increase and the 24-h pressure drop that were constructed from a dataset of 103 hurricanes from 1988 to 2003 that utilized 25 predictors of rapid intensification. The accuracy of the 24-h wind speed increase models was tested and compared with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) 24-h intensity forecasts, which …