Meteorology Commons^™

Information Content Of Seasonal Forecasts In A Changing Climate, Nir Krakauer, Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, Hannah Aizenman

Publications and Research

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting …

Droughtscape- Fall 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report ....................... 1

Updated resources ................... 1

Drought outlook and review... 2

2012 and past droughters..... 4

Summer impacts summary.... 6

Urban planners and drought..... 9

USDM wins CLEAN seal... 10

Meixiu Yu's Chinese SPEI... 11

Ethiopian project..... 12

Mexican VegDRI.... 13

Drought monitor sculpture.... 14

Droughtscape- Summer 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report ....................... 1

Drought expanse....................... 1

Upcoming ranch workshops.... 3

Drought outlook and review ... 4

Spring impacts summary ......... 6

Hawaii impact workshops........ 9

Remote sensing of drought.... 10

China workshop ...................... 12

Estimating Annual Precipitation For The Colorado River Basin Using Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillations, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Estimating long-lead time precipitation under the stress of increased climatic variability is a challenging task in the field of hydrology. A modified Support Vector Machine (SVM) based framework is proposed to estimate annual precipitation using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. Oceanic-atmospheric oscillations, consisting of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for a period of 1900–2008, are used to generate annual precipitation estimates with a 1 year lead time. The SVM model is applied to 17 climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin in the western United States. The overall results revealed that …

Green Infrastructure Resource Directory, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Green infrastructure is an approach for managing stormwater that uses vegetation and soils to capture and treat rainwater where it falls. Unlike single-purpose gray infrastructure, green infrastructure realizes multiple benefits at once, including flood mitigation, improved water and air quality, community beautification, provision of recreational opportunities, and energy and cost savings. This resource directory is intended to help communities design, implement, fund, and monitor green infrastructure practices and programs. It was compiled by the Environmental Finance Center Network through the Capacity Building for Sustainable Communities program funded by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. …

Large, Long-Lived Convective Systems Over Subtropical South America And Their Relationships With Atmospheric Teleconnections, Kyle Mattingly

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This study provides a climatological assessment of persistent elongated convective systems (PECS) over subtropical South America during the austral warm seasons of 1998-2007 and a comparison of PECS frequency and physical characteristics to mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) in the region. Relationships between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections and large, long-lived convective systems (LLCSs) are explored. An average of 143 PECS and 37 MCCs occurred per warm season. PECS lasted longer on average than MCCs (17 hrs. vs. 14 hrs.) and reached a greater average maximum cloud-shield extent than MCCs (297,300 km2 vs. 256,500 …

Long-Term Changes To The Frost-Free Season As A Function Of Climatic Continentality, Ian Blaylock

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The beginning, end, and length of the annual frost-free season vary considerably both spatially and temporally. The continentality of the climate of a given area has a close connection with the magnitude and nature of these variations. Long term changes in the frost-free season can be divided into three distinct phases: a lengthening of the frost-free season in the early 20^th century, a shortening in the mid-20^th century, and a renewed, intensified lengthening from 1970 to today. While oceanic and ultraoceanic climates experience decreased incidence of frosts relative to their continental counterparts, analysis has shown that overall 20 …

Droughtscape- Spring 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report......................1

Climate Masters ..................... 1

Ranch plan workshop ............. 3

Winter climate summary ........ 4

Winter impacts summary ....... 6

Zhao research.........................9

Getachew research ..............10

Other international news......12

Wardlow move ..................... 13

IPCC disaster report .............14

Water And Energy Balance Response Of A Riparian Wetland To The Removal Of Phragmites Australis, Phillip Mykleby

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Vegetation and climate both play integral roles in water availability, particularly for arid to semi-arid regions. Changes in these variables can lead to extreme shortages in water for regions that rely on water for crop irrigation (i.e., the Great Plains). The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of vegetation on water availability in the Republican River basin in central Nebraska. Decreases in streamflow have been observed in the river basin for many years and, as a result, an invasive riparian plant species (Phragmites australis) is being removed in an effort to reduce evapotranspiration and reclaim …

Droughtscape- Winter 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Drought Planning for Kansas Ranchers Jan. 21

South Hoping La Niña Dryness Stays Away

2011 Brought Record-Breaking Extent of D4

Reported Impacts Ease as Growing Season Ends

Disaster Planning in Nanjing at Hohai U

Ag, Fire and Water Supply Topped 2011 Impacts

Simulation Of Coastal Inundation Instigated By Storm Surge And River Discharge In The Chesapeake Bay Using Sub-Grid Modeling Coupled With Lidar Data, J. D. Loftis, H. V. Wang

Presentations

Sub-grid modeling is a novel method by which water level elevations on the sub-grid level can be obtained through the combination of water levels and velocities efficiently calculated at the coarse computational grid, the discretized bathymetric depths, and local friction parameters without resorting to solve the full set of equations. Sub-grid technology essentially allows velocity to be determined rationally and efficiently at the sub-grid level. This salient feature enables coastal flooding to be addressed in a single cross-scale model from the ocean to the upstream river channel without overly refining the grid resolution. To this end, high-resolution DEMs will be …

A Synoptic Perspective Of The Record 1-2 May 2010 Mid-South Heavy Precipitation Event, Joshua D. Durkee, Lee Campbell, Kyle Berry, Dustin Jordan, Gregory Goodrich, Rezaul Mahmood, Stuart Foster

HPRCC Personnel Publications

During 1–2 May 2010, a series of strong thunderstorms led to 41, 57, and 43 tornado, severe wind, and severe hail reports, respectively, across portions of the southern United States. In addition to severe weather, these storms also distributed recordsetting rainfall amounts across the mid-South region, which contributed to historic flooding across portions of central and western Kentucky and Tennessee (Fig. 1). This heavy precipitation event was sampled by multiple surface observational networks, including (but not limited to) 48 research-grade automated stations from the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet .org), first-order automated stations from the National Weather Service (NWS; www.ncdc.noaa.gov /oa/ncdc.html), and …

National Integrated Drought Information System Central U.S. 2012 Drought Assessment, Natalie Umphlett, Michael S. Timlin, Brian Fuchs, Wendy Ryan, Nolan Doesken, Jim Angel, Olivia Kellner, Harry J. Hillaker, Mary Knapp, Xiaomao Lin, Stu Foster, Jeff Andresen, Aaron Pollyea, Greg Spoden, Pat Guinan, Adnan Akyüz, Jeffrey C. Rogers, Laura M. Edwards, Tony Bergantino

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Conditions leading into 2012 gave scant indication of what was to come for a 15-state region in the central United States, extending from Colorado, Wyoming, and North Dakota on the west to Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan on the east.

The drought of 2012 was the first since 1988 that impacted almost the entire Corn Belt. It intensified quickly, catching many by surprise.

We hope to learn from this event to help better plan and prepare for the next drought. The full central U.S. 2012 drought assessment, “From too much to too little,” aims to identify the events of 2012 and …

From Too Much To Too Little: How The Central U.S. Drought Of 2012 Evolved Out Of One Of The Most Devastating Floods On Record In 2011, Brian Fuchs, Natalie Umphlett, Michael S. Timlin, Wendy Ryan, Nolan Doesken, Jim Angel, Olivia Kellner, Harry J. Hillaker, Mary Knapp, Xiaomao Lin, Stu Foster, Jeff Andresen, Aaron Pollyea, Greg Spoden, Adnan Akyuz, Jeffrey C. Rogers, Laura M. Edwards, Dennis Todey, Tony Bergantino

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Table of Contents

Section 1: Introduction....................................................................... 1

Section 2: Regional Drought Perspective................................. 2

Section 3: State Drought Perspectives........................................ 3

Section 3.1: Colorado........................................................................... 20

Section 3.2: Illinois.................................................................. 25

Section 3.3: Indiana................................................. 29

Section 3.4: Iowa...................... 36

Section 3.5: Kansas............................................................... 42

Section 3.6: Kentucky............................................................................ 46

Section 3.7: Michigan.............................. 52

Section 3.8: Minnesota............................................................ 58

Section 3.9: Missouri..................................................... 63

Section 3.10: Nebraska................................................. 67

Section 3.11: North Dakota............................................ 73

Section 3.12: Ohio................................................... 79

Section 3.13: South Dakota..................................... 85

Section 3.14: Wyoming........................................... 96

Section 4: Conclusions.............................................................. 99