Meteorology Commons^™

Tornado Outbreak False Alarm Probabilistic Forecasts With Machine Learning, Kirsten Reed Snodgrass

Theses and Dissertations

Tornadic outbreaks occur annually, causing fatalities and millions of dollars in damage. By improving forecasts, the public can be better equipped to act prior to an event. False alarms (FAs) can hinder the public’s ability (or willingness) to act. As such, a probabilistic FA forecasting scheme would be beneficial to improving public response to outbreaks.

Here, a machine learning approach is employed to predict FA likelihood from Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado outbreak forecasts. A database of hit and FA outbreak forecasts spanning 2010 – 2020 was developed using historical SPC convective outlooks and the SPC Storm Reports database. Weather …

Correction Of Back Trajectories Utilizing Machine Learning, Britta F. Gjermo Morrison

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this work was to analyze 24-hour back trajectory performance from a global, low-resolution weather model compared to a high-resolution limited area weather model in particular meteorological regimes, or flow patterns using K-means clustering, an unsupervised machine learning technique. The duration of this study was from 2015-2019 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three different machine learning algorithms were tested to study the utility of these methods improving the performance of the CFS relative to the performance of the RAP. The aforementioned machine learning techniques are linear regression, Bayesian ridge regression, and random forest regression. These results mean …

Suitability Of Unidata Metapps For Incorporation In Platform-Independent User-Customized Aviation Weather Products Generation Software, Harmen P. Visser

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC) is tasked to provide long-range seasonal forecasts for worldwide locations. Currently, the best long-range temperature forecasts the weather community has are the climatological standard normals. This study creates a stepping-stone into the solution of long-range forecasting by finding a process to predict temperatures better than those using climatological standard normals or simple frequency distributions of occurrences. Northern Hemispheric teleconnection indices and the standardized Southern Oscillation index are statistically compared to three-month summed Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) at 14 U.S. locations. First, linear regression was accomplished. The results showed …

A 3d Display System For Lightning Detection And Ranging (Ldar) Data, Michael W. Darwin

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning detection is an essential part of safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. In order to meet the unique needs of launching space vehicles in the thunderstorm prone Florida environment, Cape Canaveral has the only operational three- dimensional (3D) lightning detection network in the world, the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system. Although lightning activity is detected in three dimensions, the current LDAR display, developed 20 years ago, is two-dimensional. This thesis uses modern three-dimensional graphics, object-oriented software design, and innovative visualization techniques to develop a 3D visualization application for LDAR data.

Data Warehouse Techniques To Support Global On-Demand Weather Forecast Metrics, Meriellen C. Joga

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force pilots and other operators make crucial mission planning decisions based on weather forecasts; therefore, the ability to forecast the weather accurately is a critical issue to Air Force Weather (AFW) and its customers. The goal of this research is to provide Air Force Weather with a methodology to automate statistical data analysis for the purpose of providing on-demand metrics. A data warehousing methodology is developed and applied to the weather metrics problem in order to present an option that will facilitate on-demand metrics. On-line analytical processing (OLAP) and data mining solutions are also discussed.

Extensible Markup Language As A Weather Tool, Michael J. Calidonna

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is a proof of concept work that will extend the Core Mapping Application Program Interface (CMAPI) components to include weather data. The CMAPI project is headed by Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)/Information Directorate Information Handling Branch (IFEB) at Rome labs in Rome, New York. This work extends the CMAPI project in two distinct areas. The first goal is to figure out how to overlay and display weather data on a dynamically linked Internet platform. This was accomplished by incorporating existing data from the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) into the CMAPI program in a static environment. The other …

An Intelligent User Interface To Support Air Force Weather Product Generation And Automated Metrics, Darryl N. Leon

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force pilots require dependable weather reports so they may avoid unsafe flying conditions. In order to better gauge the accuracy of its weather products, Air Force Weather has established the requirement for an Air Force-wide automated weather metrics program. Under the guidelines for this program, forecasts will automatically be compared to observed weather to determine their accuracy. Statistics will be collected in the hopes of determining forecast error trends that can be corrected through education and training. In order for the statistical data produced by such a program to draw reliable conclusions about forecast accuracy, however, the correct format …