Meteorology Commons^™

A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

This study details a dynamic and thermodynamic metric (i.e., Extreme Flood Index [EFI]) designed to diagnose the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events associated with stagnant mid-latitude flow patterns (i.e., Rex blocks). As the global climate warms, rapid Arctic warming may be helping to slow the mid-latitude westerly jet stream, resulting in increased mid-latitude flow stagnation. The combination of long-duration ascent associated with easterly winds and warm moist air increases the severity of extreme precipitation events; as such, the EFI is specifically designed to detect this potent combination of ingredients. In 2013, a Rex block stalled a low-pressure system …