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The Influence Of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts Of Convection Initiation, Alexandra Marie Keclik
The Influence Of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts Of Convection Initiation, Alexandra Marie Keclik
Theses and Dissertations
The influence of assimilating targeted meso-α- to synoptic-scale observations collected in the upstream, pre-convective environment upon subsequent short-range ensemble forecasts of convection initiation (CI) across the central United States for the fifteen aircraft missions conducted by the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) in May and June 2013 is evaluated in this study. Utilizing the ensemble Kalman filter implementation within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed software package as coupled to version 3.4.1 of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, two nearly-identical thirty- member ensembles of short-range forecasts are conducted for each mission. Initial conditions for one ensemble …
Assessing The Predictability Of Convection Initiation Using An Object-Based Approach, Brock James Burghardt
Assessing The Predictability Of Convection Initiation Using An Object-Based Approach, Brock James Burghardt
Theses and Dissertations
Improvements in numerical forecasts of deep, moist convection have been notable in recent years and are in large part due to increased computational power allowing for the explicit numerical representation of convection. Accurately forecasting the timing and location of convection initiation (CI), however, remains a substantial forecast challenge. This is attributed to the inherently limited intrinsic predictability of CI due to its dependence on highly non-linear moist physics and fine-scale atmospheric processes that are poorly represented in observations. Because CI is the starting point of deep, moist convection that grows upscale, even small errors in initial convective development can rapidly …