Meteorology Commons^™

Predictability Of Sea Ice Near Bifurcations, Dawn Marie Kopacz

Theses and Dissertations

There is evidence in Earth’s history of relatively stable climate regimes abruptly transitioning to alternative states. It has been argued that the greatest potential for such abrupt transitions in Earth’s system in the near future is located in the Arctic. Here we analyze the Arctic sea ice evolution of two current generation climate models that exhibit critical transitions. We demonstrate the detectability of two early warning signals: increased variance and increased autocorrelation. We introduce another metric that forewarns of abrupt changes in sea ice; a decrease in predictability before the threshold points. Observations of Arctic sea ice extent are searched …