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The Influence Of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts Of Convection Initiation, Alexandra Marie Keclik
The Influence Of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts Of Convection Initiation, Alexandra Marie Keclik
Theses and Dissertations
The influence of assimilating targeted meso-α- to synoptic-scale observations collected in the upstream, pre-convective environment upon subsequent short-range ensemble forecasts of convection initiation (CI) across the central United States for the fifteen aircraft missions conducted by the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) in May and June 2013 is evaluated in this study. Utilizing the ensemble Kalman filter implementation within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed software package as coupled to version 3.4.1 of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, two nearly-identical thirty- member ensembles of short-range forecasts are conducted for each mission. Initial conditions for one ensemble …