Meteorology Commons^™

Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Stochastic model error schemes, such as the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) and independent SPPT (iSPPT) schemes, have become an increasingly utilized method to represent model error associated with uncertain subgrid-scale processes in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). While much of the current literature focuses on how stochastic methods influence ensemble skill, relatively less attention is given to the processes by which these schemes lead to forecast variability. In this vein, this dissertation examines the physical processes by which the application of SPPT and iSPPT to the microphysics, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and radiation parameterization schemes yields rainfall forecast variability. These …