Water Resource Management Commons^™

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Effects Of Initial Aquifer Conditions On Economic Benefits From Groundwater Conservation, T. Foster, N. Brozovic, A. P. Butler

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Worldwide, there is growing recognition of the need to reduce agricultural groundwater use in response to rapid rates of aquifer depletion. To date, however, few studies have evaluated how benefits of conservation vary along an aquifer’s depletion pathway. To address this question, we develop an integrated modeling framework that couples an agro-economic model of farmers’ field-level irrigation decisionmaking with a borehole-scale groundwater flow model. Unique to this framework is the explicit consideration of the dynamic reductions in well yields that occur as an aquifer is depleted, and how these changes in intraseasonal groundwater supply affect farmers’ ability to manage production …

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 17, 2017, Richard Tinker

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 17, 2017 (1/17/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 10, 2017, David Miskus

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 10, 2017 (1/10/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 3, 2017, David Miskus

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 3, 2017 (1/3/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

Aquacrop-Os: An Open Source Version Of Fao’S Crop Water Productivity Model, T. Foster, N. Brozovic, A. P. Butler, C. M. U. Neale, D. Raes, P. Steduto, E. Fereres, T. C. Hsiao

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Crop simulation models are valuable tools for quantifying crop yield response to water, and for devising strategies to improve agricultural water management. However, applicability of the majority of crop models is limited greatly by a failure to provide open-access to model source code. In this study, we present an open-source version of the FAO AquaCrop model, which simulates efficiently water-limited crop production across diverse environmental and agronomic conditions. Our model, called AquaCrop-OpenSource (AquaCrop-OS), can be run in multiple programming languages and operating systems. Support for parallel execution reduces significantly simulation times when applying the model in large geospatial frameworks, for …

In-Situ Observation And Transport Modelling Of Arsenic In Gangetic Plain, India, Pankaj Kumar Gupta, Pranjay Joshi, Jahangeer

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

The focus of this study is to investigate the arsenic movement and impacts on the residual concentrations on groundwater pollution load. The Gangetic plain area in the Ballia, Uttar Pradesh is selected as study area, which is also reported to extreme arsenic pollution in soil-water system. A modelling approach is developed to assess the arsenic flux in partially saturated zone using data of soil texture, soil hydraulic properties and stratigraphy. Soil type, slope, and land-use cover is considered for estimating the transient flux at the top boundary from daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data of the study area. Solute transport in …

Paid To Pump: How A Tax Credit Could Discourage Conservation Of The High Plains Aquifer, S. Polzkill,, A. Stejskal, H. Wilke, Anna Wistrom, Katherine E. B. Gibson, Mindy J. Spiehs, Nicholas Brozovic

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

In 1965’s United States v. Shurbet case, an irrigator from Texas asserted his claim for a depletion tax deduction for groundwater pumped from the High Plains Aquifer. He argued that the unique conditions of the southern High Plains region - a plateau where the shallow aquifer is recharged only through precipitation at a slow rate - meant the groundwater resource would be depleted in time. The state argued that groundwater was not fundamentally an exhaustible natural deposit, but the Supreme Court concluded the tax deduction was appropriate given the “peculiar” conditions in the area. It was stated the decision was …

Pathways To Increasing Farmer-Led Investments In Sustainable Agricultural Water Management In Sub-Saharan Africa, Douglas J. Merrey, Peter G. Mccornick, Molly C. Nance

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Without a transformative leap forward in the use of irrigation, Africa will continue falling short in the struggle to feed its growing population, improve its people’s nutrition, grow its economies, adapt to the impacts of climate change, and eliminate poverty. While Africans must lead this transformation for it to be successful, the international community can help African countries substantially increase the use of more productive and sustainable water management practices and unlock the potential of farmer-led irrigated agriculture. Achieving highly productive irrigated agricultural systems in Africa requires an enabling environment that facilitates the full engagement of farmers, public and private …

Malta : Natural Freshwater Resources, Lisamarie Pereira

Global Public Health

The aim of this paper is to discuss Malta’s struggle with limited natural freshwater resources. Malta currently uses aquifers to obtain natural freshwater. For over a decade, aquifers have been under pressure from over-abstraction. Due to this issue, Malta has not been able to obtain enough natural freshwater for agriculture and basic living. The biggest risk due to over-abstraction is retrieving a smaller volume of freshwater. In Malta’s attempted interventions, the biggest issue is the Maltese government’s misconceptions. The Maltese government believes the country has unlimited natural freshwater resources. Due to this misconception, nothing is being done to actively fix …

2017 Nebraska Water Monitoring Programs Report, Marty Link, Ryan Chapman

Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality: Reports

The Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality (NDEQ) is charged with monitoring, assessing, and to the extent possible, managing the state’s water resources. The purpose of this work is to protect and maintain high quality water and encourage or execute activities to improve poor water quality. Monitoring is done on nearly 17,000 miles of flowing rivers and streams, more than 134,000 acres of surface water in lakes and reservoirs, as well as the vast storage of groundwater in Nebraska’s aquifers.

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

Estimating The Number Of Recreational Anglers For A Given Waterbody, Kevin L. Pope, Larkin A. Powell, Brian S. Harmon, Mark A. Pegg, Christopher J. Chizinski

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Knowing how many anglers use a given body of water is paramount for understanding components of a fishery related to angling pressure and harvest, yet no study has attempted to provide an estimate of the population size of anglers for a given waterbody. Here, we use information from creel surveys in a removal-sampling framework to estimate total numbers of anglers using six reservoirs in Nebraska, USA, and we examine the influence of the duration of sampling period on those estimates. Population estimates (N ± SE) of unique anglers were 2050 ± 45 for Branched Oak Lake, 1992 ± 29 for …

A Descriptive Analysis Of Regal Fritillary (Speyeria Idalia) Habitat Utilizing Biological Monitoring Data Along The Big Bend Of The Platte River, Ne, Andrew J. Caven, Kelsey C. King, Joshua D. Wiese, Emma M. Brinley Buckley

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Speyeria idalia populations have declined as much as 95 percent over the last three decades. Here we critically evaluate prairie habitat components along the Platte River in central Nebraska that S. idalia populations require in an effort to better inform conservation efforts. We utilized S. idalia count data from biological monitoring transects where vegetation, soils, land management, and flooding frequency data were also collected to describe the habitat constituents associated with S. idalia presence. We utilize comparative statistics, Pearson’s correlation analysis, and random forest analysis to model S. idalia habitat on land owned and managed by a small conservation NGO. …

Modeling With A Conceptual Representation: Is It Necessary? Does It Work?, Rebecca C. Jordan, Steven Gray, Amanda E. Sorensen, Samantha Pasewark, Suparna Sinha, Cindy E. Hmelo-Silver

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

In response to recent educational imperatives in the United States, modeling and systems thinking have been identified as being critical for science learning. In this paper, we investigate models in the classroom from two important perspectives: (1) from the teacher perspective to understand how teachers perceive models and use models in the classroom and (2) from the students perspective to understand how student use model-based reasoning to represent their understanding in a classroom setting. Qualitative data collected from 19 teachers who attended a professional development workshop in the northeastern United States indicate that while teachers see the value in teaching …

Local To Global: Developing Solutions And Creating Impacts. Annual Report Fy 2017, Robert B. Daugherty Water For Food Global Institute

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Administrative Materials

FOREWORD - Hank M. Bounds, President, University of Nebraska

PREFACE - Peter G. McCornick, Executive Director

Focus Areas: Where we are headed We are committed to helping the world efficiently use its limited freshwater resources to ensure food security for current and future generations. The diversity of projects and activities in this report reflects the complexity of the challenges we face in achieving this goal through technical and policy research, education and communication. Our research and policy development efforts are focused within five areas to maximize the expertise of DWFI staff, our colleagues at the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) …

Agricultural Land Use, Watershed Characteristics, And Hydrological Forces Contributing To The Impairment Of A Shallow Lake In The Western Corn Belt Ecoregion, Lynn Schultz

All Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects

The Lake Titlow watershed (approximately 35,000 acres) in south-central Minnesota is part of the Minnesota River Basin. The lake is listed in the draft 2010 Clean Water Act Section 303d for nutrient pollution, eutrophication, and biological indicators for impairment of aquatic life and recreational use. Over 90 percent of pre-settlement wetlands are currently drained for agricultural land use. The Lake Titlow watershed is over 80 percent row crops and land use is implicated as a primary cause of impairment in the lake.

Water samples were collected from the Lake Titlow tributaries McLeod-Sibley Judicial Ditch Number 18 (JD18), Sibley County Ditch …

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

A Summary Of The Kentucky River Watershed Watch 2016 Water Sampling Results, Kentucky Water Resources Research Institute

Kentucky River Watershed Watch

No abstract provided.