Other Environmental Sciences Commons^™

Temporal Migration Shifts In The Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population Of Whooping Cranes (Grus Americana) Across North America, Joel G. Jorgensen, Mary Bomberger Brown

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Birds are altering the phenology of critical life history events, including migration, in response to the effects of global climate change. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the most critically endangered birds in the world. Their remnant population, referred to as the Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population, numbers between 300-400 individuals and migrates between the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast and north-central Canada twice each year. Previous analyses suggested Whooping Crane migration was temporally constant in spring and fall. New analyses of observations spanning 1942-2016 show Whooping Crane migration is now occurring earlier in spring by approximately 22 days …

Understanding Community Character As A Socio-Ecological Framework To Enhance Local-Scale Adaptation: An Interdisciplinary Case Study From Rural Northwest Connecticut, Joanna Wozniak-Brown

Antioch University Dissertations & Theses

Around the world, municipalities are facing new challenges, not the least of which is climate change. This is especially true for rural communities that, for a variety of reasons, will be disproportionately affected by the climatic changes and accompanying policies or programs.

This dissertation, written in manuscript-style, integrates climate change and social-ecological scholarship to address the unique character of rural communities, to communicate the complexity of rural identity through the term "rural character"; and to empower rural communities to incorporate adaptation strategies into their daily municipal operations and planning.

Specifically, this dissertation seeks to answer the following questions: What is …

A Spatio-Temporal Comparison Of Avian Migration Phenology Using Citizen Science Data, Ali Arab, Jason R. Courter, Jessica Zelt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The effects of climate change have wide-ranging impacts on wildlife species and recent studies indicate that birds’ spring arrival dates are advancing in response to changes in global climates. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach for comparing avian first arrival data for multiple species. As an example, we analyze spring arrival data for two long-distance migrants (Rubythroated Hummingbird Archilochus colubris; and Purple Martin Progne subis) in eastern North America from 2001–2010 using Citizen Science data. The proposed approach provides researchers with a tool to compare mean arrival dates while accounting for spatial and temporal variability. Our results show …

Potential Direct And Indirect Effects Of Climate Change On A Shallow Natural Lake Fish Assemblage, Jason J. Breeggemann, Mark A. Kaemingk, Timothy J. Debates, Craig P. Paukert, Jacob R. Krause, Alexander P. Letvin, Tanner M. Stevens, David W. Willis, Steven R. Chipps

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, …

Estimating Carbon Storage In Windbreak Trees On U.S. Agricultural Lands, W. B. Possu, James R. Brandle, G. M. Domke, M. Schoeneberger, Erin E. Blankenship

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Assessing carbon (C) capture and storage potential by the agroforestry practice of windbreaks has been limited. This is due, in part, to a lack of suitable data and associated models for estimating tree biomass and C for species growing under more opengrown conditions such as windbreaks in the Central Plains region of the United States (U.S.). We evaluated 15 allometric models using destructively sampled Pinus ponderosa (Lawson & C. Lawson) data from field windbreaks in Nebraska and Montana. Several goodness-of-fit metrics were used to select the optimal model. The Jenkins’ et al. model was then used to estimate biomass for …

Adaptation On A Budget: How Vietnamese Innovators Are Trying To Design Their Way Out Of Climate Change, Shanti R. Johnson

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

In the rapidly developing Mekong Delta of Vietnam, young innovators are facing a challenge far greater than simply trying to catch up with the wealthier world. In a growing trend, the next generation of Vietnamese is acting under a common understanding: climate change is real, it’s here and the time to respond is growing short.

For over a decade, Southern Vietnam has consistently been ranked by international organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as one of the most vulnerable places in the world to the impacts of climate change. That vulnerability is heightened by the fact that the …

A Spatio-Temporal Comparison Of Avian Migration Phenology Using Citizen Science Data, Ali Arab, Jason R. Courter, Jessica Zelt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The effects of climate change have wide-ranging impacts on wildlife species and recent studies indicate that birds’ spring arrival dates are advancing in response to changes in global climates. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach for comparing avian first arrival data for multiple species. As an example, we analyze spring arrival data for two long-distance migrants (Rubythroated Hummingbird Archilochus colubris; and Purple Martin Progne subis) in eastern North America from 2001–2010 using Citizen Science data. The proposed approach provides researchers with a tool to compare mean arrival dates while accounting for spatial and temporal variability. Our results show …

Understanding The Structure And Functioning Of Polar Pelagic Ecosystems To Predict The Impacts Of Change, E. E. Murphy, R. D. Cavanagh, K. F. Drinkwater, S. M. Grant, J. J. Heymans, E. E. Hofmann, G. L. Hunt Jr., N. M. Johnston

CCPO Publications

The determinants of the structure, functioning and resilience of pelagic ecosystems across most of the polar regions are not well known. Improved understanding is essential for assessing the value of biodiversity and predicting the effects of change (including in biodiversity) on these ecosystems and the services they maintain. Here we focus on the trophic interactions that underpin ecosystem structure, developing comparative analyses of how polar pelagic food webs vary in relation to the environment. We highlight that there is not a singular, generic Arctic or Antarctic pelagic food web, and, although there are characteristic pathways of energy flow dominated by …

Regional Scale Cropland Carbon Budgets: Evaluating A Geospatial Agricultural Modeling System Using Inventory Data, Xuesong Zhang, Roberto C. Izaurralde, David H. Manowitz, Ritvik Sahajpal, Tristram O. West, Allison M. Thomson, Min Xu, Kaiguang Zhao, Stephen D. Leduc, Jimmy R. Williams

United States Environmental Protection Agency: Publications

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatiallyexplicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems …

A Bird’S- Eye View Of The Usa National Phenology Network: An Off-The-Shelf Monitoring Program, Jherime Kellerman, Caroline A. F. Enquist, Diana L. Humple, Nathaniel E. Seavy, Alyssa Rosemartin, Renée L. Cormier, Lorianne Barnett

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Phenology is central to the biology and ecology of organisms and highly sensitive to climate. Differential responses to climate change are impacting phenological synchrony of inter- acting species, which has been implicated in the decline of migratory birds that rely on seasonal resources. However, few studies explicitly measure phenology of seasonal habitat resources on the breeding and wintering grounds and at stopover sites. While avian monitoring methods are widely standardized, methods of monitoring resource phenology can be highly variable and difficult to integrate. The USA National Phenology Network (USA- NPN) has developed standardized plant and animal phenology protocols and a …

Sustainability Planning, Environmental Justice And Climate Change: Applications Of The Long Island Markal Model, David S. Friedman, Yehuda Klein, Jose Pillich, Michael T. Sullivan

Suburban Sustainability

As pointed out by many authors, sustainability is often vague and amorphous (See, for example, Dovers, 1989; Faber, et al, 2005; Glavič, et al. 2007). There is a clear need to make analytical and data-driven analyses of established and or proposed plans. MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation model) is an analytical tool that can be used characterize the impacts of sustainability plans at multiple spatial scales: global, national, regional, and local. In this study we apply the Long Island MARKAL model to answer three interrelated issues: 1, the development and incremental improvement of local and regional sustainability plans; 2, the impact of …

Precipitation Variability And Nitrogen Deposition Alter Root Distribution In A Tallgrass Prairie, Emmalyn P. Terracciano, Michael Schuster, Jeffrey Dukes

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Climate change and increases in nitrogen deposition impact ecosystems globally. Projected atmospheric warming allows rain to fall in larger events with longer dry periods in between, increasing rainfall variability in many regions. Concurrently, the combustion of fossil fuels and the heavy use of nitrogen fertilizers continue to increase the availability of nitrogen globally. However, not much is known about how these global change factors, increased rainfall variability and nitrogen deposition, interact with each other to affect ecosystem functions, particularly belowground where root production contributes to soil carbon pools- an important component in regulating climate. In order to study these factors, …

Climate Change: Threats To Social Welfare And Social Justice Requiring Social Work Intervention, Lauren Caroline Achstatter

21st Century Social Justice

The article looks at climate change though a social development framework, with emphasis on social justice and social welfare. It evaluates how market-based capitalism continues to contribute to the problem while ignoring the warnings from the scientific community. The article goes on to report that despite the devastation of climate change, concerns – mainly financial in nature - continue to hinder progress towards reform. The article then argues that given the evidence, climate change qualifies as a topic of interest for social workers. The article goes on to advocate for social work involvement highlighting some suggested areas for action.

Exposure Of U.S. National Parks To Land Use And Climate Change 1900-2100, Andrew J. Hansen, Cory Davis, Jessica Haas, David M. Theobald, John E. Gross, William B. Monahan, Tom Olliff, Steven W. Running

Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences Faculty Publications

Many protected areas may not be adequately safeguarding biodiversity from human activities on surrounding lands and global change. The magnitude of such change agents and the sensitivity of ecosystems to these agents vary among protected areas. Thus, there is a need to assess vulnerability across networks of protected areas to determine those most at risk and to lay the basis for developing effective adaptation strategies. We conducted an assessment of exposure of U.S. National Parks to climate and land use change and consequences for vegetation communities. We first defined park protected-area centered ecosystems (PACEs) based on ecological principles. We then …

Carbon–Temperature–Water Change Analysis For Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype For The Agmip Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3mp), Alex Ruane, Sonali Mcdermid, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Guillermo Baigorria, James W. Jones, Consuelo Romero, L. Dewayne Cecil

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for …

Analysis And Mapping Of Climate Change Risk And Vulnerability In Central Rift Valley Of Ethiopia, L. Gizachew, A. Shiferaw

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Changing The Climate Narrative: How A Long-Term Climate Change Might Save Our Lives, Natalie P. Harreld

CMC Senior Theses

The goal of this paper is to offer new insights into the climate change debate by shifting away from the heated anthropologic arguments that dominate politics, media, and popular science. Instead, I choose to rely on the long-term impacts of a changing climate on our planet. The paper begins with a break down of key processes involved in short-term and long-term climate change, using the latest research. After a foundational understanding of climate sciences is established, we will discuss the failure of the climate change debate in educating the general public about the facts of a changing climate. Finally, the …

Modeling The Production Of Multiple Ecosystem Services From Agricultural And Forest Landscapes In Rhode Island, Tingting Liu, Nathaniel H. Merrill, Arthur J. Gold, Dorothy Q. Kellogg, Emi Uchida

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Assessing Migration Of Ruby-Throated Hummingbirds (Archilochus Colubris) At Broad Spatial And Temporal Scales Evaluación De La Migración De Archilochus Colubris A Escalas Amplias De Tiempo Y Espacio, Jason Courter, Ron J. Johnson, William C. Bridges Jr., Kenneth Hubbard

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Phenological patterns in birds appear to be temperature-dependent in part, and global temperatures are undergoing change. Many studies of bird phenology are conducted at broad temporal but local spatial scales, making it difficult to assess how temperature affects bird migration across landscapes. Recently, networks of “citizen science” volunteers have emerged whose collective efforts may improve phenology studies as biases associated with such efforts are recognized and addressed. We compared mean Rubythroated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris) first arrival dates from Journey North (2001-2010) with data from the North American Bird Phenology Program (1880-1969). Ruby-throated Hummingbirds arrived earlier in the more recent period …

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison And Improvement Project (Agmip): Protocols And Pilot Studies, Cynthia Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, Alex Ruane, K. J. Thornburn, J. M. Antle, G. C. Nelson, C. Porter, S. Janssen, B. Basso, F. Ewert, D. Wallach, G. Baigorria, J. M. Winter

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model …

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison And Improvement Project (Agmip): Protocols And Pilot Studies, Cynthia Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, A. C. Ruane, K. J. Boote, P. Thornburn, J. M. Antle, G. C. Nelson, C. Porter, S. Janssen, S. Asseng, B. Basso, F. Ewert, D. Wallach, G. Baigorria, J. M. Winter

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model …

Ice-Age Megafauna In Arctic Alaska: Extinction, Invasion, Survival, Daniel H. Mann, Pamela Groves, Michael L. Kunz, Richard E. Reanier, Benjamin V. Gaglioti

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Radical restructuring of the terrestrial, large mammal fauna living in arctic Alaska occurred between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. Steppe bison, horse, and woolly mammoth became extinct, moose and humans invaded, while muskox and caribou persisted. The ice age mega fauna was more diverse in species and possibly contained 6x more individual animals than live in the region today. Mega faunal biomass during the last ice age may have been 30x greater than present. Horse was the dominant species in terms of number of individuals. Lions, short-faced bears, wolves, and possibly grizzly …

Evaluating Habitat Vulnerability And Sustainability Of Urban Seagrass Resources To Sea Level Rise, Cynthia A. Meyer

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The seagrass resource provides essential ecosystem functions for many marine species. This research evaluated the vulnerability and sustainability of the seagrass resource in an urbanized area to the effects of sea level rise. The assessment required analysis of information regarding the biogeography of the seagrass resource, and developing a method to model the spatial extent of the suitable habitat for seagrass, and applying the model to predict the implications of simulated sea level rise scenarios on the seagrass resource.

Examining the biogeography of the seagrass resource required the development of a seagrass monitoring and assessment field survey and a comprehensive …

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Water Balance Of The Central United States, 1984–2007, Bo Dong

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem/land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is …

Interannual And Spatial Impacts Of Phenological Transitions, Growing Season Length, And Spring And Autumn Temperatures On Carbon Sequestration: A North America Flux Data Synthesis, Chaoyang Wu, Alemu Gonsamo, Jing Ming Chen, Werner A. Kurz, David T. Price, Peter M. Lafleur, Rachhpal S. Jassal, Danilo Dragoni, Gil Bohrer, Christopher M. Gough, Shashi B. Verma, Andrew E. Suyker, J. William Munger

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Understanding feedbacks of ecosystem carbon sequestration to climate change is an urgent step in developing future ecosystem models. Using 187 site-years of flux data observed at 24 sites covering three plant functional types (i.e. evergreen forests (EF), deciduous forests (DF) and non-forest ecosystems (NF) (e.g., crop, grassland, wetland)) in North America, we present an analysis of both interannual and spatial relationships between annual net ecosystem production (NEP) and phenological indicators, including the flux-based carbon uptake period (CUP) and its transitions, degree-day-derived growing season length (GSL), and spring and autumn temperatures. Diverse responses were acquired between annul NEP and these indicators …

Hurricane Disturbance And Recovery Of Energy Balance, Co2 Fluxes And Canopy Structure In A Mangrove Forest Of The Florida Everglades, Jordan G. Barr, Vic Engel, Thomas J. Smith, José D. Fuentes

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Eddy covariance (EC) estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and energy balance are examined to investigate the functional responses of a mature mangrove forest to a disturbance generated by Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005 in the Florida Everglades. At the EC site, high winds from the hurricane caused nearly 100% defoliation in the upper canopy and widespread tree mortality. Soil temperatures down to −50 cm increased, and air temperature lapse rates within the forest canopy switched from statically stable to statically unstable conditions following the disturbance. Unstable conditions allowed more efficient transport of water vapor and CO₂ from …

Global Air Temperature Variability Independent Of Sea-Surface Temperature Influences, Andrew C. Comrie, Gregory J. Mccabe

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Mean global surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST) display substantial variability on timescales ranging from annual to multi-decadal. We review the key recent literature on connections between global SAT and SST variability. Although individual ocean influences on SAT have been recognized, the combined contributions of worldwide SST variability on the global SAT signal have not been clearly identified in observed data.Weanalyze these relations using principal components of detrended SST, and find that removing the underlying combined annual, decadal, and multi-decadal SST variability from the SAT time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming trend in SAT since …

Diurnal Temperature Range Over The United States: A Satellite View, D. Sun, R. T. Pinker, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important climate change index. Information on this parameter comes primarily from sparse and unevenly distributed observations of shelter air temperature. In this study, five years of GOES- 8 based estimates of land surface temperature (LST) over the United States are used to evaluate DTR at high spatial resolution. The spatial and temporal patterns that emerged show a high degree of consistency with independent satellite estimates of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Specifically, the arid regions in the western and central U.S. have larger DTRs than the eastern United States or the northwest coast. …

Nonlinear Dynamics In Ecosystem Response To Climatic Change: Case Studies And Policy Implications, Virginia R. Burkett, Douglas A. Wilcox, Wilcox Stottlemyer, Wylie Barrow, Dan Fagre, Jill Baron, Jeff Price, Jennifer L. Nielsen, Craig D. Allen, David L. Peterson, Greg Ruggerone, Thomas Doyle

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of …

Climatology Of The Daily Temperature Range Annual Cycle In The United States, Daniel J. Leathers, Michael A. Palecki, David A. Robinson, Kenneth F. Dewey

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Many researchers are presently interested in detecting long-term trends in annual or seasonal daily temperature range (DTR), and attributing these changes to anthropogenic origins. However, very little work has been done to confirm the mechanisms that are important to determining the long-term average annual cycle of the DTR. Therefore, the focus of this work is to examine the spatial and temporal difference in the DTR average annual cycle across the United States, and to associate the patterns of these cycles with potential causal variables. Three major types of DTR annual cycle exist in the United States: high sun season maximum …