Natural Resources and Conservation Commons^™

Droughtscape, Summer 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Quarterly drought summary

Quarterly drought impacts

NDMC welcomes African visitors

Ready for Drought game debuts

U.S. Virgin Islands added to USDM

Australian programmer visits NDMC

Upcoming events

Partnerships with NDMC extended

Not All Surveillance Data Are Created Equal—A Multi‐Method Dynamic Occupancy Approach To Determine Rabies Elimination From Wildlife, Amy J. Davis, Jordona D. Kirby, Richard B. Chipman, Kathleen M. Nelson, Tatiana Xifara, Colleen T. Webb, Ryan Wallace, Amy T. Gilbert, Kim M. Pepin

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

1. A necessary component of elimination programmes for wildlife disease is effective surveillance. The ability to distinguish between disease freedom and non‐detection can mean the difference between a successful elimination campaign and new epizootics. Understanding the contribution of different surveillance methods helps to optimize and better allocate effort and develop more effective surveillance programmes.

2. We evaluated the probability of rabies virus elimination (disease freedom) in an enzootic area with active management using dynamic occupancy modelling of 10 years of raccoon rabies virus (RABV) surveillance data (2006–2015) collected from three states in the eastern United States. We estimated detection probability …

Survival, Fidelity, And Dispersal Of Double-Crested Cormorants On Two Lake Michigan Islands, Christopher R. Ayers, Katie C. Hanson-Dorr, Ken Stromborg, Todd W. Arnold, Jacob S. Ivan, Brian S. Dorr

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Colony fidelity and dispersal can have important consequences on the population dynamics of colonial-nesting birds. We studied survival and inter-colony movements of Double-crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus; cormorants) nesting at Spider and Pilot islands, located 9 km apart in western Lake Michigan, during 2008–2014. We used live resighting and dead recovery data from both colonies, plus dead recoveries from throughout North America, in a multistate live and dead encounter model to estimate annual survival, inter-colony movements, plus temporary and permanent emigration to unmonitored sites. Annual survival averaged 0.37 (annual process variation, ˆ = 0.07) for hatch-year, 0.78 (ˆ= 0.08) for secondyear, …

The Long Winter Of 1880-1881, Barbara Mayes Boustead, Martha Shulski, Steven D. Hilberg

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The story of the winter of 1880-1881 in the central United States has been retold in historical fiction, including Laura Ingalls Wilder’s The Long Winter, as well as in local histories and folklore. What story does the meteorological data tell, and how does it measure up when compared to the fiction and folklore? What were the contributing factors to the severity of the Long Winter, and has it been or could it be repeated? Examining historical and meteorological data, reconstructions, and reanalysis, including the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, the Long Winter emerges as one of the most severe since …

Use Of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (Uas) And Multispectral Imagery For Quantifying Agricultural Areas Damaged By Wild Pigs, Justin W. Fischer, Kelsey Greiner, Mark W. Lutman, Bryson L. Webber, Kurt C. Vercauteren

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) cause extensive damage to agricultural crops, resulting in lost production and income. A major challenge associated with assessing damage to crops is locating and quantifying damaged areas within agricultural fields. We evaluated a novel method using multispectral high-resolution aerial imagery, collected from sensors mounted on unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), and feature extraction techniques to detect and map areas of corn fields damaged by wild pigs in southern Missouri, USA. Damaged areas were extracted from orthomosaics using visible and near-infrared band combinations, an object-based classification approach, and hierarchical learning cycles. To validate estimates we also collected ground …

Confronting Models With Data: The Challenges Of Estimating Disease Spillover, Paul C. Cross, Diann J. Prosser, Andrew M. Ramey, Ephraim M. Hanks, Kim M. Pepin

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

For pathogens known to transmit across host species, strategic investment in disease control requires knowledge about where and when spillover transmission is likely. One approach to estimating spillover is to directly correlate observed spillover events with covariates. An alternative is to mechanistically combine information on host density, distribution and pathogen prevalence to predict where and when spillover events are expected to occur. We use several case studies at the wildlife–livestock disease interface to highlight the challenges, and potential solutions, to estimating spatiotemporal variation in spillover risk. Datasets on multiple host species often do not align in space, time or resolution, …

Typha (Cattail) Invasion In North American Wetlands: Biology, Regional Problems, Impacts, Ecosystem Services, And Management, Sheel Bansal, Shane C. Lishawa, Sue Newman, Brian A. Tangen, Douglas Wilcox, Dennis Albert, Michael J. Anteau, Michael J. Chimney, Ryann L. Cressey, Edward Dekeyser, Kenneth J. Elgersma, Sarah A. Finkelstein, Joanna Freeland, Richard Grosshans, Page E. Klug, Daniel J. Larkin, Beth A. Lawrence, George Linz, Joy Marburger, Gregory Noe, Clint Otto, Nicholas Reo, Jennifer Richards, Curtis Richardson, Leroy Rodgers, Amy J. Schrank, Dan Svedarsky, Steven Travis, Nancy Tuchman, Lisamarie Windham-Myers

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Typha is an iconic wetland plant found worldwide. Hybridization and anthropogenic disturbances have resulted in large increases in Typha abundance in wetland ecosystems throughout North America at a cost to native floral and faunal biodiversity. As demonstrated by three regional case studies, Typha is capable of rapidly colonizing habitats and forming monodominant vegetation stands due to traits such as robust size, rapid growth rate, and rhizomatic expansion. Increased nutrient inputs into wetlands and altered hydrologic regimes are among the principal anthropogenic drivers of Typha invasion. Typha is associated with a wide range of negative ecological impacts to wetland and agricultural …

Sensitivity Analysis Of Aquifer Parameter Estimations Based On The Laplace Equation With Linearized Boundary Conditions, Jozsef Szilagyi

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

A Crash In The Night, Mary Ann Steiner, Sam Taylor, Judy Diamond

Zea E-Books Collection

The illustrations in this book describe a wildlife encounter. Wild animals, like people, have challenges in life. They are adaptable and inventive, and they find new ways of solving problems to help them survive. As you turn the pages, describe what you see. How would you solve this wildlife challenge?

Mary Ann Steiner: Working on this story was exciting to me because I believe at any age, we can notice what is happening around us and make decisions to protect and enjoy nature! In this story, the kids see an exciting new character in the community. Once they figure out …

Extreme Site Fidelity As An Optimal Strategy In An Unpredictable And Homogeneous Environment, Brian D. Gerber, Mevin B. Hooten, Christopher P. Peck, Mindy B. Rice, James H. Gammonley, Anthony D. Apa, Amy J. Davis

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

1. Animal site fidelity structures space use, population demography and ultimately gene flow. Understanding the adaptive selection for site fidelity patterns provides a mechanistic understanding to both spatial and population processes. This can be achieved by linking space use with environmental variability (spatial and temporal) and demographic parameters. However, rarely is the environmental context that drives the selection for site fidelity behaviour fully considered.

2. We use ecological theory to understand whether the spatial and temporal variability in breeding site quality can explain the site fidelity behaviour and demographic patterns of Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus). We examined female site fidelity …

Aquatic Invasive Species Change Ecosystem Services From The World's Largest Wild Sockeye Salmon Fisheries In Alaska, Tobias Schwoerer, Joseph M. Little, Milo D. Adkison

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

This study combines a multi-method approach to structured expert judgment with market valuation to forecast fisheries damages from introduced invasive species. The method is applied to a case study of Alaska’s first submersed aquatic invasive plant, Elodea spp., threatening Alaska’s salmon fisheries. Assuming that Elodea spp. remains unmanaged, estimated mean damages to commercial sockeye fisheries aggregated across Alaska amount to a potential $159 million annually with a 5% chance of exceeding $577 million annually ($2015 USD). The associated mean loss of natural capital amounts to $5.1 billion cumulatively over the next 100 years reaching $400 million after 10 years. …

Quantitative Modelling Biology Undergraduate Assessment, Robert Mayes, Kent Rittschof, Joseph Dauer, Bryon Gallant

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The Quantitative Modelling Biology Undergraduate Assessment (QM BUGS Version II) assesses undergraduate biology students’ quantitative modelling abilities and confidence. The assessment is intended to be given in undergraduate biology courses where instructors are engaging students in quantitative modelling within biological contexts. The assessment consists of 36 questions: 25 multiple choice questions addressing four subcategories within quantitative modelling understanding (Quantitative Act, Quantitative Interpretation, Quantitative Modelling, and Meta-Modelling) and 11 Likert questions addressing student confidence about modelling in biology within the four subcategories. QM BUGS assessments were piloted in multiple undergraduate biology courses at both a research intensive university and regional university …

Extinction Vortex Dynamics Of Top Predators Isolated By Urbanization, John F. Benson, Peter J. Mahoney, T. Winston Vickers, Jeff A. Sikich, Paul Beier, Seth P.D. Riley, Holly B. Ernest, Walter M. Boyce

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Extinction risk is elevated in small, isolated populations due to demographic and genetic interactions. Therefore, it is critical to model these processes realistically in population viability analyses (PVA) to inform local management and contribute to a greater understanding of mechanisms within the extinction vortex. We conducted PVA’s for two small mountain lion populations isolated by urbanization in southern California to predict population growth, extinction probability, and loss of genetic diversity with empirical data. Specifically, we (1) provide the first PVA for isolated mountain lions in the Santa Ana Mountains (SAM) that considers both demographic and genetic risk factors and (2) …

The Adaptive Cycle: More Than A Metaphor, Shana M. Sundstrom, Craig R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The adaptive cycle and its extension to panarchy (nested adaptive cycles) has been a useful metaphor and conceptual model for understanding long-term dynamics of change in ecological and social–ecological systems. We argue that adaptive cycles are ubiquitous in complex adaptive systems because they reflect endogenously generated dynamics as a result of processes of self-organization and evolution. We synthesize work from a wide array of fields to support this claim. If dynamics of growth, conservation, collapse and renewal are endogenous dynamics of complex adaptive systems, then there ought to be signals of system change over time that reflect this. We describe …

Drought Impacts And Management In Prairie And Sandhills State Parks, Theresa M. Jedd, Devarati Bhattacharya, Cara Pesek, Michael J. Hayes

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The combination of decreased water availability and increased temperatures can interfere with outdoor activities, particularly with surface water decline and the increased risk of wildfire. Drought is a longer-term climate trend, but there is a tendency toward short-term reactions only when a drought occurs. Policy mechanisms for drought, where present, are often left to managerial discretion because they are not needed every year, and lack specific indicators. Recreator choices contribute to adaptation and public lands managers also shape drought response by monitoring meteorological trends and managing resources wisely. Despite these trends, no singular recreational drought definition exists. To understand socio-environmental …

Enhancing Rural Economies Through Agroforestry, Gary Bentrup, Dean Current, Christopher Hartley, Marlen Eve, Tricia Kovacs, Kate Mcfarland, Eric Norland, David Smith, Susan Stein, Richard Straight

United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service / University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Faculty Publications

Executive Summary

Accelerating the adoption of agroforestry will require a better understanding of the economic opportunities and financial benefits to society, says a recent assessment of United States agroforestry.1 Providing this understanding is critical for agroforestry to reach its full potential, whereby it enhances rural economies and provides ecological services that people need, such as clean drinking water. To assess emerging opportunities, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) convened more than 60 people in March 2018 to learn, network, and, above all, generate ideas for raising the economic profile and viability of agroforestry in the United States.

The effort …

Analysing Habitat Connectivity And Home Ranges Of Bigmouth Buffalo And Channel Catfish Using A Large-Scale Acoustic Receiver Network, Eva C. Enders, Colin Charles, Douglas A. Watkinson, Colin Kovachik, Douglas R. Leroux, Henry Hansen, Mark Pegg

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The determination if fish movement of potadromous species is impeded in a river system is often difficult, particularly when timing and extent of movements are unknown. Furthermore, evaluating river connectivity poses additional challenges. Here, we used large-scale, long-term fish movement to study and identify anthropogenic barriers to movements in the Lake Winnipeg basin including the Red, Winnipeg, and Assiniboine rivers. In the frame of the project, 80 Bigmouth Buffalo (Ictiobus cyprinellus) and 161 Channel Catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) were tagged with acoustic transmitters. Individual fish were detected with an acoustic telemetry network. Movements were subsequently analyzed using a continuous-time Markov model …

River-Wide Habitat Availability For Fish Habitat Guilds: Implications For In-Stream Flow Protection, Jonathan Spurgeon, Mark A. Pegg, Piotr Parasiewicz, Joe Rogers

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The variation in river discharge alters habitat heterogeneity with implications for the distribution of fish species with different habitat requirements. Assessments of habitat availability following changes in river discharge are difficult to apply at broad spatial scales and with relevance to multiple species. We used a MesoHABSIM modeling approach to quantify river-wide changes in habitat availability for five fish habitat guilds under three river discharge levels along the Niobrara River, NE, USA.We used a time-series of river discharge (1958–2010) to create uniform continuous under-threshold habitat duration curves that identified habitat conditions that may result in periods of stress for fish …

Seasonal Dynamics Of Lipid Metabolism And Energy Storage In The Brazilian Free-Tailed Bat, Elizabeth J. Rogers, Amie S. Sommers, Liam P. Mcguire

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

As small, flying, mammalian endotherms, insectivorous bats are adapted to operate at high levels of energy expenditure. In response to seasonally variable challenges, we predicted that bats should balance energy budgets by flexibly adjusting aspects of their physiology or behavior in ways that elevate metabolic capacity. We examined variation in energy storage and pathways for oxidative metabolism in Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) related to estimated costs associated with reproduction and migration. We collected pectoral muscle and liver from female T. brasiliensis at six time points during the summer and fall and measured changes in the activity of four enzymes …

Seamless Lidar Surveys Reveal Rates And Patterns Of Subsidence In The Mississippi River Delta, Celeste E. Woock

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) data are used to report the temporal and spatial patterns of subsidence as well as the potential contributors to subsidence within the Barataria and Terrebonne Bays. In recent decades, subsidence in southeast Louisiana has become a topic of substantial and growing concern to the scientific community, the local residents, and all those invested in the region. Lidar data were acquired from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the LSU Center for Geoinformatics. The data has been manipulated to map the differenced Lidar, complete an instantaneous slope analysis, and determine the thickness of the Holocene …

Fish Community Response To In-Channel Woody Debris In A Channelized River System, Michael W. Archer, Brenda M. Pracheil, Alexandrea E. Otto, Mark A. Pegg

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Additions of large wood (LW) have become a go-to technique for recovering altered river ecosystems. However, successful applications of this technique are generally limited to unchannelized rivers and headwater streams. Channelization of rivers, that is, engineering river channels to reduce recruitment and retention of in-channel structure, may, by definition, limit success of this restoration technique. Moreover, sufficient time has passed (a century or more) since initial channelization of many large rivers that portions of the fish community associated with LW may have become extirpated. Thus, the maxim that LW leads to a positive fish community response may not hold true. …

Ecological Interventions To Prevent And Manage Zoonotic Pathogen Spillover, Susanne H. Sokolow, Nicole Nova, Kim M. Pepin, Alison J. Peel, Juliet R.C. Pulliam, Kezia Manlove, Paul C. Cross, Daniel J. Becker, Raina K. Plowright, Hamish Mccallum, Giulio A. De Leo

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Spillover of a pathogen from awildlife reservoir into a human or livestock host requires the pathogen to overcome a hierarchical series of barriers. Interventions aimed at one or more of these barriers may be able to prevent the occurrence of spillover. Here, we demonstrate how interventions that target the ecological context in which spillover occurs (i.e. ecological interventions) can complement conventional approaches like vaccination, treatment, disinfection and chemical control. Accelerating spillover owing to environmental change requires effective, affordable, durable and scalable solutions that fully harness the complex processes involved in cross-species pathogen spillover.

This article is part of the theme …

Scavenging In The Anthropocene: Human Impact Drives Vertebrate Scavenger Species Richness At A Global Scale, Esther Sebastián‐González, Jomar Magalhães Barbosa, Juan M. Pérez‐García, Zebensui Morales‐Reyes, Francisco Botella, Pedro P. Olea, Patricia Mateo‐Tomás, Marcos Moleón, Fernando Hiraldo, Eneko Arrondo, José A. Donázar, Ainara Cortés‐Avizanda, Nuria Selva, Sergio A. Lambertucci, Aishwarya Bhattacharjee, Alexis Brewer, Erin Abernethy, Olin E. Rhodes Jr., Kelsey Turner, James C. Beasley, Travis L. Devault, Andrés Ordiz, Camilla Wikenros, Barbara Zimmermann, Petter Wabakken, Christopher C. Wilmers, Justine A. Smith, Corinne J. Kendall, Darcy Ogada, Evan R. Buechley, Ethan Frehner, Maximilian L. Allen, Heiko U. Wittmer, James R.A. Butler, Johan T. Du Toit, John Read, David Wilson, Klemen Jerina, Miha Krofel, Rich Kostecke, Richard Inger, Arockianathan Samson, Lara Naves‐Alegre, José A. Sánchez‐Zapata

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Understanding the distribution of biodiversity across the Earth is one of the most challenging questions in biology. Much research has been directed at explaining the species latitudinal pattern showing that communities are richer in tropical areas; however, despite decades of research, a general consensus has not yet emerged. In addition, global biodiversity patterns are being rapidly altered by human activities. Here, we aim to describe large‐scale patterns of species richness and diversity in terrestrial vertebrate scavenger (carrion‐consuming) assemblages, which provide key ecosystem functions and services. We used a worldwide dataset comprising 43 sites, where vertebrate scavenger assemblages were identified using …

The Economic Impacts Of Blackbird (Icteridae) Damage To Sunflower In The Usa, Karina Ernst, Julie Elser, George Linz, Hans Kandel, Jason Holderieath, Samantha Degroot, Steven Shwiff, Stephanie Shwiff

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

BACKGROUND: Blackbird (Icteridae) damage to ripening sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) has been a persistent economic issue in the USA for the last five decades. To quantify losses, we surveyed blackbird damage from 2001 to 2013 (excluding 2004) to physiologically mature sunflower in eight states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Colorado, Kansas, and Vermont.

RESULTS:We pooled data gathered during the most recent 5 years (2009 to 2013) of the survey and found losses averaged $US2.5 million and $US11.3 million for confectionery and oilseed hybrids, respectively. Three states, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska, had sufficient acreage and bird damage …

Wildfire Exposure To Critical Habitat Of Endangered And Threatened Species In California, Kristin Butcher

Master's Theses

Researchers, fire ecologists and wildlife managers are concerned about impact to endangered and threatened species and their critical habitat due to the projected increase in future wildfires. Wildfires have been studied in California for the last six decades and have been increasing at an alarming rate since the 1980’s. In this study, I use the 2018 spatial dataset for critical habitat of federally endangered and threatened species located in the state boundaries of California and compare it to a spatial dataset for wildfires that have occurred over the span of 32 years (1984 to 2016). Trends are derived from spatial …

Habitat Selection By American Beaverat Multiple Spatial Scales, Guiming Wang, Lance F. Mcclintic, Jimmy D. Taylor

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Background: Semiaquatic mammals require both aquatic and terrestrial habitats, particularly interfaces between the two habitats. As ecosystem engineers, American beaver (Castor canadensis) consume and fell a great amount of deciduous trees. We tested the prediction that open water and amounts of food resources, including hardwood forests (i.e., deciduous trees as the dominant form of vegetation), herbaceous and woody wetlands, and shrubs, would influence the second-order habitat selection (i.e., placing home ranges on the landscape) by American beaver, whereas the third-order habitat selection of American beaver would be associated with woody wetland and shrub edges. We investigated hierarchical habitat selection by …

Riparian Resilience In The Face Of Interacting Disturbances, Alexa S. Whipple

2019 Symposium

Riparian systems of the dryland western United States provide critical ecosystem functions such as diverse habitat for numerous species, flood attenuation and essential water storage in water-limited environments. These systems have experienced long term disturbance from anthropogenic activities including the grazing of livestock in dryland riparian systems and near extirpation of a keystone riparian species, Castor canadensis (beaver). However, increasing frequency of large-scale wildfires and climate change driven weather is altering the severity and scale of riparian disturbance. Beaver restoration has been gaining use to address long term riparian disturbances, yet little is understood regarding the impact of restored beaver …

Understanding Ngos And Their Effectiveness Through A Comparative Study Of Their Role In Redd+, Jessica Russo

Political Science Student Scholarship

This thesis explores the following question: what roles do NGOs play and how effective may they be in efforts at global governance? Through a comparative case study analysis of NGOs advocating for Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) and NGOs implementing REDD+ projects, specifically the Surui Forest Carbon Project located in the state of Rondônia, Brazil, I examine whether NGOs are more effective taking on the role as advocates or policy implementers. For this work, I will argue that independent of the multiplicity of roles that NGOs play, their effectiveness is a function of the level of their …

Epidemic Growth Rates And Host Movement Patterns Shape Management Performance For Pathogen Spillover At The Wildlife–Livestock Interface, Kezia R. Manlove, Laura M. Sampson, Benny Borremans, E. Frances Cassirer, Ryan S. Miller, Kim M. Pepin, Thomas E. Besser, Paul C. Cross

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Managing pathogen spillover at the wildlife–livestock interface is a key step towards improving global animal health, food security and wildlife conservation. However, predicting the effectiveness of management actions across host–pathogen systems with different life histories is an on-going challenge since data on intervention effectiveness are expensive to collect and results are system-specific.We developed a simulation model to explore how the efficacies of different management strategies vary according to host movement patterns and epidemic growth rates. The model suggested that fast-growing, fast-moving epidemics like avian influenza were best-managed with actions like biosecurity or containment, which limited and localized overall spillover risk. …

Migratory Shorebird Adheres To Bergmann’S Rule By Responding To Environmental Conditions Through The Annual Lifecycle, Daniel Gibson, Angela D. Hornsby, Mary B. Brown, Jonathan B. Cohen, Lauren R. Dinan, James D. Fraser, Meryl J. Friedrich, Cheri L. Gratto-Trevor, Kelsi L. Hunt, Matthew Jeffery, Joel G. Jorgensen, Peter W.C. Paton, Samantha G. Robinson, Jen Rock, Michelle L. Stantial, Chelsea E. Weithman, Daniel H. Catlin

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The inverse relationship between body size and environmental temperature is a widespread ecogeographic pattern. However, the underlying forces that produce this pattern are unclear in many taxa. Expectations are particularly unclear for migratory species, as individuals may escape environmental extremes and reorient themselves along the environmental gradient. In addition, some aspects of body size are largely fixed while others are environmentally flexible and may vary seasonally. Here, we used a long-term dataset that tracked multiple populations of the migratory piping plover Charadrius melodus across their breeding and non-breeding ranges to investigate ecogeographic patterns of phenotypically flexible (body mass) and fixed …