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Environmental Monitoring Commons

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2017

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Articles 151 - 180 of 276

Full-Text Articles in Environmental Monitoring

Mechanistic Modeling Of Insecticide Risks To Breeding Birds In North American Agroecosystems, Matthew Etterson, Kristina Garber, Edward Odenkirchen May 2017

Mechanistic Modeling Of Insecticide Risks To Breeding Birds In North American Agroecosystems, Matthew Etterson, Kristina Garber, Edward Odenkirchen

United States Environmental Protection Agency: Publications

Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. There is accumulating evidence that insecticides adversely affect non-target wildlife species, including birds, causing mortality, reproductive impairment, and indirect effects through loss of prey base, and the type and magnitude of such effects differs by chemical class, or mode of action. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of the insecticide and the risk the insecticide poses to the environment and non-target wildlife. Current USEPA risk assessments for pesticides …


Financial Assessment Of Agricultural Lands At Risk To Coastal Salt Marsh Migration In Relation To Climate Change Induced Sea Level Rise In Dorchester County, Maryland, Jewell Porter May 2017

Financial Assessment Of Agricultural Lands At Risk To Coastal Salt Marsh Migration In Relation To Climate Change Induced Sea Level Rise In Dorchester County, Maryland, Jewell Porter

Sustainability and Social Justice

The increasing rate and effects of sea level rise is a major environmental concern in the Chesapeake Bay. This paper evaluates the impacts of rising sea level on coastal salt marshes and the surrounding agricultural lands at risk in Dorchester County, Maryland to build off existing environmental monitoring work performed by NOAA’s Sentinel Site Program. The results of the spatial analysis were used to estimate monetary benefits to incentivize farmers to protect these marshes by making their land available for marsh migration to occur. Looking at three scenarios of sea level rise and marsh migration, grain crops (corn, soybeans, and …


Elucidating The Effects Of Thiamethoxam Neonicotinoid On Honey Bee Learning Using The Proboscis Extension Response, David J. Shepherd May 2017

Elucidating The Effects Of Thiamethoxam Neonicotinoid On Honey Bee Learning Using The Proboscis Extension Response, David J. Shepherd

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In this study, the effects of the neonicotinoid pesticide, thiamethoxam, are examined through the Proboscis Extension Response (PER) in honey bees (Apis mellifera). PER is a form of classical conditioning applied to honey bees through scent and reward association which quantifies learning rates. Results between groups treated with thiamethoxam did not differ significantly from untreated control groups. Potential reasons for these results are discussed. The method and experimental apparatus for testing the PER assay are also discussed.


Gouldian Finch Non Breeding Population And Habitat Assessment 2017: Ord-East Kimberley Expansion Project - Weaber Plain Development Area, Save The Gouldian Fund May 2017

Gouldian Finch Non Breeding Population And Habitat Assessment 2017: Ord-East Kimberley Expansion Project - Weaber Plain Development Area, Save The Gouldian Fund

Irrigated Agricultural Development in the North

As part of the requirement for State approval under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, an assessment and regular monitoring of the endangered Gouldian finch (Erythrura gouldiae) is required during the operation of the Ord River Irrigation Area Weaber Plain Development Project in the Kimberley, Western Australia. This report details the findings from the habitat and vegetation surveys of non breeding Gouldian finches (October 2016 – April 2017).


Environmental Dna (Edna) Detects The Invasive Crayfishes Orconectes Rusticus And Pacifastacus Leniusculus In Large Lakes Of North America, Eric R. Larson, Mark A. Renshaw, Crysta Gantz, John Umek, Sudeep Chandra, David M. Lodge, Scott P. Egan May 2017

Environmental Dna (Edna) Detects The Invasive Crayfishes Orconectes Rusticus And Pacifastacus Leniusculus In Large Lakes Of North America, Eric R. Larson, Mark A. Renshaw, Crysta Gantz, John Umek, Sudeep Chandra, David M. Lodge, Scott P. Egan

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We report results of a study that made reciprocal comparisons of environmental DNA (eDNA) assays for two major invasive crayfishes between their disparate invasive ranges in North America. Specifically, we tested for range expansions of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus (Dana, 1852) into the Laurentian Great Lakes region known to be invaded by the rusty crayfish Orconectes rusticus (Girard, 1852), as well as for the invasion of O. rusticus into large lakes of California and Nevada, US known to be invaded by P. leniusculus. We compared eDNA detections to historic localities for O. rusticus within the Great Lakes, and to …


Remotely Sensed Heat : Variation And Change In Surface Urban Heat Islands In A Temperate Eco-Region Of The United States., Jeremy Sandifer May 2017

Remotely Sensed Heat : Variation And Change In Surface Urban Heat Islands In A Temperate Eco-Region Of The United States., Jeremy Sandifer

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Urban heat island (UHI) is a term used to describe increased surface and atmospheric temperatures in an urban core relative to surrounding non-urbanized areas. To examine the variability introduced into derived estimates of the surface UHI, this study constructs and compares multiple remotely sensed indicators of the surface UHI for major metropolitan cities of a temperate eco-region of the United States. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day, 500-meter product (MOD11A2) is the source data used to calculate six different RS-derived UHI indicators for the year 2002 to 2012. The different SUHI indicators are evaluated using the Spearmans Rho rank-order …


Ord River Irrigation Area Stage 2: M2 Supply Channel - Compliance Assessment Report 2016 - Statement 938, Stratagen May 2017

Ord River Irrigation Area Stage 2: M2 Supply Channel - Compliance Assessment Report 2016 - Statement 938, Stratagen

Reports

The WA Minister for State Development (the proponent) has approval to develop land for irrigated agriculture across the Weaber, Keep River and Knox Creek Plains, located north-northeast of Kununurra in the eastern Kimberley region of WA and extends to the Keep River estuary in the Northern Territory. The area of development (M2 Area) is immediately northeast of the existing Ord River Irrigation Area (ORIA), with proposed development representing the second stage of the ORIA scheme. It comprises approximately 76 000 ha (including Buffer Areas) and a key part of the development is main irrigation channel (the ‘M2 channel’), that extends …


Epbc 2010/5491: Weaber Plain Development Project Annual Environmental Report - 1st May 2016 To 30th April 2017, Department Of State Development May 2017

Epbc 2010/5491: Weaber Plain Development Project Annual Environmental Report - 1st May 2016 To 30th April 2017, Department Of State Development

Reports

This 2017 Ord EPBC Compliance Report has been developed in accordance with Condition 3 of the Federal Environmental Approval for the Weaber Plain Development Project, EPBC 2010/5491.


Spatiotemporal Analyses Of Recycled Water Production, Jana E. Archer May 2017

Spatiotemporal Analyses Of Recycled Water Production, Jana E. Archer

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Increased demands on water supplies caused by population expansion, saltwater intrusion, and drought have led to water shortages which may be addressed by use of recycled water as recycled water products. Study I investigated recycled water production in Florida and California during 2009 to detect gaps in distribution and identify areas for expansion. Gaps were detected along the panhandle and Miami, Florida, as well as the northern and southwestern regions in California. Study II examined gaps in distribution, identified temporal change, and located areas for expansion for Florida in 2009 and 2015. Production increased in the northern and southern regions …


Range-Wide Prevalence And Impacts Of Pseudocercosporella Inconspicua On Lilium Grayi And An Assessment Of L. Superbum And L. Michauxii As Reservoirs, Cindy L. Barrett May 2017

Range-Wide Prevalence And Impacts Of Pseudocercosporella Inconspicua On Lilium Grayi And An Assessment Of L. Superbum And L. Michauxii As Reservoirs, Cindy L. Barrett

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Lilium grayi (Gray’s Lily), a southern Appalachian endemic species, is threatened by a Lilium-specific fungal pathogen, Pseudocercosporella inconspicua. The disease is characterized by tan lesions that can cause early senescence, while also lowering seed production and viability. This project tested for P. inconspicua conidia and accessed health at nine locations. The disease was present and ubiquitous across the range of L. grayi. Through identification of P. inconspicua conidia in the field, L. superbum (Turk’s Cap Lily) was identified as an additional host, while L. michauxii (Michaux’s Lily) was disease-free. However, infection was inducible in both species. With …


Deposition Patterns And Rates Of Mining-Contaminated Sediment Within A Sedimentation Basin System, S.E. Missouri, Joshua Carl Voss May 2017

Deposition Patterns And Rates Of Mining-Contaminated Sediment Within A Sedimentation Basin System, S.E. Missouri, Joshua Carl Voss

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Flooding events exert a dominant control over the deposition and formation of floodplains. The rate at which floodplains form depends on flood magnitude, frequency, and duration, and associated sediment transport capacity and supply. While it is known that sediment in the Big River is contaminated from historical mining, little is known about the patterns and rates of deposition on floodplains, especially those that have been modified for remediation purposes. The goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of flood characteristics and topography on contemporary deposition patterns and rates in a sedimentation basin system located within a floodplain along …


Building A Small-Scale Magnetic Flux Rope Database Via The Graf-Shafranov Reconstruction Technique, Jinlei Zheng Apr 2017

Building A Small-Scale Magnetic Flux Rope Database Via The Graf-Shafranov Reconstruction Technique, Jinlei Zheng

Research Horizons Day Posters

No abstract provided.


Link Between Local Phenology And Climate Change, Blake Steiner, Tatyana Lobova Apr 2017

Link Between Local Phenology And Climate Change, Blake Steiner, Tatyana Lobova

Virginias Collegiate Honors Council Conference

The SouthEast Virginia Phenology Project was initiated as collaboration between Norfolk Botanical Garden and Old Dominion University in 2010 to document phenology of seven native plants and potential effects of the climate change on their life cycle. The air temperature in Norfolk has increased on average by 0.02ºC per year since 1980. Four out of seven of taxonomically diverse plant species (Mayapple, Flowering Dogwood, Highbush Blueberry, and Common ButtonBush) exhibited significant sensitivity to warming temperatures. Of these four, only Common Buttonbush (Cephalanthus occidentalis) had shown significant phenophases shift. Specifically, first flowering and first fruiting dates had shifted 2.7 …


Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (Ebfm) Risk Assessment Of The Western Australian Abalone Managed Industry, F J. Webster, B Wise, Anthony M. Hart Apr 2017

Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (Ebfm) Risk Assessment Of The Western Australian Abalone Managed Industry, F J. Webster, B Wise, Anthony M. Hart

WA Marine Stewardship Council report series

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Western Australian (WA) Abalone Managed Fishery (AMF) and the outcomes from the 2015 ecological risk assessment of this fishery. The AMF targets three species of abalone greenlip (Haliotis laevigata), brownlip (H. conicopora) and Roe’s abalone (H. roei). Greenlip and brownlip abalone are primarily targeted on the south coast of WA, while Roe’s abalone is primarily targeted on the West Coast. Commercial fishing for abalone in WA has been undertaken since 1964.


Agrarian Reform In Sumber Klampok, Emma Trainor Apr 2017

Agrarian Reform In Sumber Klampok, Emma Trainor

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Agrarian reform in Indonesia is part of a movement beginning after independence was gained in 1945. Farmers have been fighting to obtain rights to their land from a government that has a history of violence, repression, and corruption for decades. Environmental, indigenous peoples’, peasant, and agrarian movements were given a legitimate, legal framework to work within after 1960 when the Basic Agrarian Law was passed, protecting the rights of the people to their land. However, during both the Old Order and especially New Order regimes, the law was often ignored by the government, and many grassroots organizations had to work …


Modeling Gross Primary Production Of Midwest Maize And Soybean Croplands With Satellite And Gridded Weather Data, Gunnar Malek-Madani Apr 2017

Modeling Gross Primary Production Of Midwest Maize And Soybean Croplands With Satellite And Gridded Weather Data, Gunnar Malek-Madani

Department of Geography: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The gross primary production (GPP) metric is useful in determining trends in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Models that determine GPP utilizing the light use efficiency (LUE) approach in conjunction with biophysical parameters that account for local weather conditions and crop specific factors are beneficial in that they combine the accuracy of the biophysical model with the versatility of the LUE model. One such model developed using in situ data was adapted to operate with remote sensing derived leaf area index (LAI) data and gridded weather datasets. The model, known as the Light Use Efficiency GPP Model (EGM), uses a four …


Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center Apr 2017

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions


The Coastal Monitor: Vol 2. No 1., John Tanacredi Ph.D. Apr 2017

The Coastal Monitor: Vol 2. No 1., John Tanacredi Ph.D.

The Coastal Monitor

There is something enchanting and vibrant about viewing the coast. Every day at CERCOM we are welcomed by either a vivid sunrise, a view of the barrier island Fire Island and a blending of the sky across the horizon, ultimately flooding the Great South Bay with either clouds or sunshine that reveals the Bay’s surface as either shimmering with sunlight, or an integration of sky and water as an endless ocean. I don’t normally wax poetic but the varying sights along the near shore ocean and this embayment beckon our scientific inquisitiveness. What’s below the surface water? How do animals …


The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles Apr 2017

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Fisheries & wildlife climate workshop...................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

NCA workshop and outreach activities......................................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6


Decadal Vegetation Succession Along A Chronosequence Within Eucalyptus Obliqua Wet Forest, Southern Tasmania, Christine Dobbin Apr 2017

Decadal Vegetation Succession Along A Chronosequence Within Eucalyptus Obliqua Wet Forest, Southern Tasmania, Christine Dobbin

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Southern Tasmania is home to fire dependent mixed forests, which, if not maintained, will eventually be replaced by the rainforest understorey. Wet eucalypt forest succession after disturbance events was investigated through floristic and vertical measurements of four north facing chronosequence plots with labels describing the age class of each, from regrowth to mature sites. This study was possible due to the establishment of permanent 50m x 50m plots in 2007 for longitudinal monitoring and subsequent illustration of forest dynamics following disturbance, including clearfell burns and wildfire. The contents of this report are the comparative analyses of the findings from the …


Getting That Sinking Feeling: Analysis And Impacts Of Sea Level Rise On Three National Parks Along The East Coast, Usa, Julia K. Deros, Amanda L. Thibault, Amy B. True Apr 2017

Getting That Sinking Feeling: Analysis And Impacts Of Sea Level Rise On Three National Parks Along The East Coast, Usa, Julia K. Deros, Amanda L. Thibault, Amy B. True

Student Publications

Due to global climate change, sea level rise (SLR) has become a threat for future generations, but the extent of this danger is unknown. To help understand the possible effects of SLR on the east coast of the United States, we studied three national parks: Acadia National Park (ACAD), Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS) and Everglades National Park (EVER). We predicted that ACAD would be less affected by SLR than ASIS and EVER due to the construction of its beach profile. By measuring the beach profile, we found that Sand Beach in ACAD was reflective with an average slope of …


Advancing Collaborative Solutions: Lessons From The Oregon Sage-Grouse Conservation Partnership (Sagecon), Jennifer H. Allen, Turner Odell, Julia Babcock, Charis Henrie Apr 2017

Advancing Collaborative Solutions: Lessons From The Oregon Sage-Grouse Conservation Partnership (Sagecon), Jennifer H. Allen, Turner Odell, Julia Babcock, Charis Henrie

National Policy Consensus Center Publications

The Sage-Grouse Conservation Partnership, also known as “SageCon,” was an unprecedented collaborative effort among federal, state, and private stakeholders to address landscape-scale threats to greater sage-grouse while also acknowledging rural economic and community interests across eastern Oregon’s sagebrush range. A U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) preliminary finding that the sage-grouse warranted listing under the endangered species act, and a subsequent court settlement setting a deadline for a final listing decision were key drivers for SageCon participants to seek proactive solutions to protect the bird. A cadre of diverse Eastern Oregon stakeholders with experience working collaboratively on related public lands …


Influence Of Internal Variability On Population Exposure To Hydroclimatic Changes, Justin S. Mankin, Daniel Viviroli, Mesfin Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Radley M. Horton, Jason E. Smerdon, Noah S. Diffenbaugh Mar 2017

Influence Of Internal Variability On Population Exposure To Hydroclimatic Changes, Justin S. Mankin, Daniel Viviroli, Mesfin Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Radley M. Horton, Jason E. Smerdon, Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation …


Aerial Water Sampler, Carrick Detweiler, John-Paul Ore, Baoliang Zhao, Sebastian Elbaum Mar 2017

Aerial Water Sampler, Carrick Detweiler, John-Paul Ore, Baoliang Zhao, Sebastian Elbaum

School of Computing: Faculty Publications

In one aspect, a vehicle includes an aerial propulsion system, an altitude sensor system, a water sampling system, and a control system. The water sampling system includes a water sampling extension configured to extend away from the vehicle, one or more water sample receptacles, and a water pump. The control system is configured to perform operations including: guiding, using the aerial propulsion system, the vehicle over a water Source; causing, using sensor data from the altitude sensor system, the vehicle to descend towards the water source so that the water sampling extension contacts the water source; and causing, using the …


The Impacts Of Climate Change And Anthropogenic Processes On Permafrost Soils And Usaf Infrastructure Within Northern Tier Bases, Alexander J. Graboski Mar 2017

The Impacts Of Climate Change And Anthropogenic Processes On Permafrost Soils And Usaf Infrastructure Within Northern Tier Bases, Alexander J. Graboski

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense is planning over $552M in military construction on Eielson Air Force Base within the next three fiscal years. Although many studies have been conducted on permafrost and climate change, the future of our climate as well as any impacts on permafrost soils, remains unclear. This research focused on future climate predictions to determine likely scenarios for the United States Air Force’s Strategic Planners to consider. The most recent 2013 International Panel on Climate Change report predicts a 2.2ºC to 7.8ºC temperature rise in Arctic regions by the end of the 21st Century in the Representative Concentration …


Environmental Applications Of Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems In Multi-Service Tactics, Techniques, And Procedures For Chemical, Biological, Radiological, And Nuclear Reconnaissance And Surveillance, Brandon B. Barnes Mar 2017

Environmental Applications Of Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems In Multi-Service Tactics, Techniques, And Procedures For Chemical, Biological, Radiological, And Nuclear Reconnaissance And Surveillance, Brandon B. Barnes

Theses and Dissertations

Small unmanned aircraft systems can be used for a variety of environmental applications. SUAS under 50 kg have the most utility at the tactical level and benefit from the research and development of systems currently being manufactured. Integrating chemical sensors into these systems can enhance Multi-service Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Reconnaissance and Surveillance. Considering the advantages and disadvantages in the fundamental science of twelve detection technologies, four types of sensors emerged as candidates for SUAS integration. Using specifications from commercial-off-the-shelf sensors, these four detection technologies (Electrochemical, Metal Oxide Semiconductor, Photoionization, and Catalytic Bead) were …


Factors That Influence Vital Rates Of Seaside And Saltmarsh Sparrows In Coastal New Jersey, Usa, Samuel G. Roberts, Rebecca A. Longenecker, Matthew A. Etterson, Katharine J. Ruskin, Chris S. Elphick, Brian J. Olsen, W. Gregory Shriver Mar 2017

Factors That Influence Vital Rates Of Seaside And Saltmarsh Sparrows In Coastal New Jersey, Usa, Samuel G. Roberts, Rebecca A. Longenecker, Matthew A. Etterson, Katharine J. Ruskin, Chris S. Elphick, Brian J. Olsen, W. Gregory Shriver

United States Environmental Protection Agency: Publications

As saltmarsh habitat continues to disappear, understanding the factors that influence the population dynamics of saltmarsh breeding birds is an important step in the conservation of these declining species. Using 5 yrs (2011–2015) of demographic data, we evaluated and compared apparent adult survival and nest survival of Seaside (Ammodramus maritimus) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacutus) sparrows at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge in New Jersey, USA. We determined the effect of site management history (unditched vs. ditched marshes) on adult and nest survival to aid in prioritizing future management or restoration actions. Apparent adult …


Hch And Ddt Residues In Indian Soil: Atmospheric Input And Risk Assessment, Paromita Chakraborty, Sanjenbam Nirmala Khuman, Bhupandar Kumar, Bommanna G. Loganathan Mar 2017

Hch And Ddt Residues In Indian Soil: Atmospheric Input And Risk Assessment, Paromita Chakraborty, Sanjenbam Nirmala Khuman, Bhupandar Kumar, Bommanna G. Loganathan

Faculty & Staff Research and Creative Activity

HCH and DDT Residues in Indian Soil: Atmospheric Input and Risk Assessment.


On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos Mar 2017

On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. …


Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong Mar 2017

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …