Environmental Monitoring Commons^™

Using Temporal Changes In Drought Indices To Generate Probabilistic Drought Intensification Forecasts, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, the potential utility of using rapid temporal changes in drought indices to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales is assessed. Standardized change anomalies were computed each week during the 2000–13 growing seasons for drought indices depicting anomalies in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and soil moisture. A rapid change index (RCI) that encapsulates the accumulated magnitude of rapid changes in the weekly anomalies was computed each week for each drought index, and then a simple statistical method was used to convert the RCI values into drought intensification probabilities depicting the likelihood that …

Water-Use Restriction Information: Information Sharing Between Public Water Systems And State Government Offices, Christopher Carparelli

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In many states there is an absence of communication between the state and local levels about many aspects of water resource management. This research examines the interaction between the state and local levels regarding water-use restrictions for public water systems (PWSs). This information is useful for state-level drought planning and mitigation through the assessment of drought impacts on public water supplies. Officials from five state-level entities that collect and disseminate local water-use restriction information were interviewed over the phone for this research. Each official was asked eleven questions about how and why their state collects and disseminates PWS water-use restriction …

National Drought Management Policy Guidelines: A Template For Action, Donald A. Wilhite, World Meteorological Organization, Global Water Partnership, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The implementation of a drought policy based on the philosophy of risk reduction can alter a nation’s approach to drought management by reducing the associated impacts (risk). This was the idea that motivated the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Secretariat of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in collaboration with a number of UN agencies, international and regional organizations, and key national agencies, to organize the Highlevel Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP), which was held in Geneva from 11 to 15 March 2013. The theme of …

Examining The Relationship Between Drought Development And Rapid Changes In The Evaporative Stress Index, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, the ability of a new drought metric based on thermal infrared remote sensing imagery to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought intensification is assessed. This new metric, called the rapid change index (RCI), is designed to highlight areas undergoing rapid changes in moisture stress as inferred from weekly changes in the evaporative stress index (ESI) generated using the Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model. Two case study analyses across the central United States revealed that the initial appearance of negative RCI values indicative of rapid increases in moisture stress preceded the introduction …

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability: Expanding International Cooperation For The Development Of A Framework For Monitoring And Forecasting, Will Pozzi, Justin Sheffield, Robert Stefanski, Douglas Cripe, Roger Pulwarty, Jürgen V. Vogt, Richard R. Heim Jr., Michael J. Brewer, Mark Svoboda, Rogier Westerhoff, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Benjamin Lloyd-Hughes, Florian Pappenberger, Micha Werner, Emanuel Dutra, Fredrik Wetterhall, Wolfgang Wagner, Siegfried Schubert, Kingtse Mo, Margaret Nicholson, Lynette Bettio, Liliana Nunez, Rens Van Beek, Marc Bierkens, Luis Gustavo Goncalves De Goncalves, João Gerd Zell De Mattos, Richard Lawford

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The need for a global drought early warning framework. Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10%–13% over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer …

The Missing Piece: Drought Impacts Monitoring Report From A Workshop In Tucson, Az March 5-6, 2013, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Brennan, Daniel Ferguson, Mike Crimmins, Lisa Darby, Kirstin Dow, Keith Ingram, Alison Meadow, Henry Reges, Mark Shafer, Kelly Helm Smith

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Based on a shared interest to better understand the impacts of drought and the potential utility of using drought impacts reporting as a tool for monitoring conditions, researchers from the Carolinas RISA (Dow, Lackstrom, and Brennan), the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (Crimmins and Ferguson), and the Southwest Climate Science Center (Meadow) decided to convene a workshop in Tucson in March 2013. The primary goal was to assemble a small group of university and agency scientists involved with drought impacts monitoring to discuss opportunities and barriers associated with drought impacts reporting, recommend best practices for implementing a drought impacts reporting …

Examining Rapid Onset Drought Development Using The Thermal Infrared–Based Evaporative Stress Index, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Iliana E. Mladenova, Jeffrey B. Basara, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Reliable indicators of rapid drought onset can help to improve the effectiveness of drought early warning systems. In this study, the evaporative stress index (ESI), which uses remotely sensed thermal infrared imagery to estimate evapotranspiration (ET), is compared to drought classifications in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and standard precipitation-based drought indicators for several cases of rapid drought development that have occurred across the United States in recent years. Analysis of meteorological time series from the North American Regional Reanalysis indicates that these events are typically characterized by warm air temperature and low cloud cover anomalies, often with high winds …

An Intercomparison Of Drought Indicators Based On Thermal Remote Sensing And Nldas-2 Simulations With U.S. Drought Monitor Classifications, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jason Otkin, Xiwu Zhan, Kingtse Mo, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, Agustin Pimstein

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Comparison of multiple hydrologic indicators, derived from independent data sources and modeling approaches, may improve confidence in signals of emerging drought, particularly during periods of rapid onset. This paper compares the evaporative stress index (ESI)—a diagnostic fast-response indicator describing evapotranspiration (ET) deficits derived within a thermal remote sensing energy balance framework—with prognostic estimates of soil moisture (SM), ET, and runoff anomalies generated with the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Widely used empirical indices based on thermal remote sensing [vegetation health index (VHI)] and precipitation percentiles [standardized precipitation index (SPI)] were also included to assess relative performance. Spatial and …

Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience For Weather And Climate Information?, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Tonya Haigh, Amber Saylor Mase, Jim Angel, Chad Hart, Cody Knutson, Maria Carmen Lemos, Yun Jia Lo, Jean Mcguire, Lois Wright Morton, Jennifer Perron, Dennis Todey, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

As the climate in the midwestern United States becomes increasingly variable because of global climate change, it is critical to provide tools to the agricultural community to ensure adaptability and profitability of agricultural cropping systems. When used by farmers and their advisors, agricultural decision support tools can reduce uncertainty and risks in the planning, operation, and management decisions of the farm enterprise. Agricultural advisors have historically played a key role in providing information and guidance in these decisions. However, little is known about what these advisors know or think about weather and climate information and their willingness to incorporate this …

Climate Divisions For Alaska Based On Objective Methods, Peter A. Bieniek, Uma S. Bhatt, Richard L. Thoman, Heather Angeloff, James Partain, John Papineau, Frederick Fritsch, Eric Holloway, John E. Walsh, Christopher Daly, Martha Shulski, Gary Hufford, David F. Hill, Stavros Calos, Rudiger Gens

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Alaska encompasses several climate types because of its vast size, high-latitude location, proximity to oceans, and complex topography. There is a great need to understand how climate varies regionally for climatic research and forecasting applications. Although climate-type zones have been established for Alaska on the basis of seasonal climatological mean behavior, there has been little attempt to construct climate divisions that identify regions with consistently homogeneous climatic variability. In this study, cluster analysis was applied to monthly-average temperature data from 1977 to 2010 at a robust set of weather stations to develop climate divisions for the state. Mean-adjusted Advanced Very …

Drought Monitoring: Historical And Current Perspectives, Michael J. Hayes, Mark D. Svoboda, Brian D. Wardlow, Martha C. Anderson, Felix Kogan

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate throughout the world, with characteristics and impacts that can vary from region to region. Figure 1.1 illustrates the regular occurrence of drought within the United States between 1895 and 2010 with approximately 14% of the country, on average (plotted by black dotted line), experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions during any given year. Drought conditions can persist in a region for several years, as occurred in the United States in the 1930s, 1950s, and early 2000s, and tree ring and other proxy records confirm that multiple-year droughts are part of the long-term …

Future Opportunities And Challenges In Remote Sensing Of Drought, Brian D. Wardlow, Martha C. Anderson, Justin Sheffield, Bradley D. Doorn, James P. Verdin, Xiwu Zhan, Matthew Rodell

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation, as summarized by Anyamba and Tucker (2012, Chapter 2). Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) (Kogan, 1995) were also developed during this time period and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers like AVHRR could provide …

Microwave Remote Sensing Of Soil Moisture Science And Applications, Son V. Nghiem, Brian D. Wardlow, David Allured, Mark Svoboda, Doug Lecomte, Matthew Rosencrans, Steven K. Chan, Gregory Neumann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is a fundamental link between global water and carbon cycles and has major applications in predicting natural hazards such as droughts and floods (National Research Council, 2007). From precipitation data, soil wetness can be estimated by hydrological land-surface models. In the United States, preliminary precipitation data are based on measurements gathered from many active stations nationwide each month, and it takes 3–4 months to assemble final, quality-controlled data. In the western United States, some climate divisions may have no stations reporting in a particular month or may lack first- or second-order stations, and significant blockages by mountains limit …

Drought Triggers And Declarations: Science And Policy Considerations For Drought Risk Management, Linda Courtenay Botterill, Michael J. Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This paper explores the value of triggers and declarations in the management of drought, bringing together two disciplinary perspectives, those of the public policy scholar and the climate scientist. These two perspectives highlight the complexity of the development and use of triggers in drought risk management by drawing on the experience of the United States, which has the most sophisticated system of drought triggers in the world, and that of Australia that has the most developed and longest standing national drought policy based on principles of risk management. The paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of triggers in managing drought, …

Thermal-Based Evaporative Stress Index For Monitoring Surface Moisture Depletion, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, Brian D. Wardlow, Agustin Pimstein, John R. Mecikalski, William P. Kustas

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The standard suite of indicators currently used in operational drought monitoring reflects anomalous conditions in several major components of the hydrologic budget—representing deficits in precipitation, soil moisture content, runoff, surface and groundwater storage, snowpack, and streamflow. In principle, it is useful to have a diversity of indices because drought can assume many forms (meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic), over broad ranges in timescale (weeks to years), and with varied impacts of interest to different stakeholder groups. Farmers, for example, may be principally interested in soil moisture deficits, river forecasters will focus on streamflow fluctuations, and water managers will be concerned …

Standardized Precipitation Index: User Guide, Mark Svoboda, Michael Hayes, Deborah Wood

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Over the years, there has been much discussion on what drought indices should be used in a particular climate and for what application. Many drought definitions and indices have been developed and attempts have been made to provide some guidance on this issue. With this in mind, the Interregional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought was organized and held at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, United States of America, from 8 to 11 December 2009. It was jointly sponsored by the School of Natural Resources (SNR) of the University of Nebraska, the United States National Drought Mitigation Center …

Building An Enhanced Drought Early Warning System (Dews): Tools And Services For Decision Support, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Outline

• About the NDMC
• Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) Overview
• Tools (USDM, DIR, Atlas, VegDRI, + EPC/DRC)
• NDMC and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
• Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System (NIDIS)
• Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS)
• Summary
• Q&A

Droughts In The 21st Century And Beyond, Vijay P. Singh, Chris Funk, Jim Angel, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought: Science

• Characterization
• Mechanisms
• Modelings
• Prediction and Forecasting

Drought Monitoring

• Measurement
• Mapping
• Space
• Time
• Data Sharing
• Updating

Evaluation Of Drought Indices Based On Thermal Remote Sensing Of Evapotranspiration Over The Continental United States, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, Brian Wardlow, Agustin Pimstein, John R. Mecikalski, William P. Kustas

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The reliability of standard meteorological drought indices based on measurements of precipitation is limited by the spatial distribution and quality of currently available rainfall data. Furthermore, they reflect only one component of the surface hydrologic cycle, and they cannot readily capture nonprecipitation-based moisture inputs to the land surface system (e.g., irrigation) that may temper drought impacts or variable rates of water consumption across a landscape. This study assesses the value of a new drought index based on remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET). The evaporative stress index (ESI) quantifies anomalies in the ratio of actual to potential ET (PET), mapped using …

Farmer Perceptions Of Sustainable Agriculture Practices And Drought Risk Reduction In Nebraska, Usa, Cody L. Knutson, Tonya Haigh, Michael J. Hayes, Melissa Widhalm, J. Nothwehr, M. Kleinschmidt, L. Graf

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Social factors, such as farming methods, have an impact on farm vulnerability to drought, but have received little research or policy attention. Some researchers and advocates have argued that sustainable agriculture systems are less vulnerable to climate risk than conventional systems because sustainable agriculture requires producers to have skills promoting adaptability. In this paper, we investigate producers’ perceptions on the use of sustainable agriculture in reducing drought risk, and what they believe would help them better adapt to drought. We surveyed and interviewed farmer members of two sustainable agriculture organizations in Nebraska, USA, during a multi-year drought period from 1999 …

The Global Drought Monitor Portal, Michael J. Brewer, Richard R. Heim Jr.

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought monitoring, assessment, response, mitigation, adaptation, and early warning systems have been created in a number of countries around the world, and some regional and continental efforts have been successful. However, the creation of a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS) remains elusive. A GDEWS incorporates forecasting and research improvements, in addition to monitoring, impact, planning, mitigation and adaptation and recovery information. At a series of workshops in 2010, the U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) agreed to take the first step toward a GDEWS, the formation of a Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). This effort currently covers three …

Effects Of Drought On Avian Community Structure, Thomas P. Albright, Anna M. Pidgeon, Chadwick D. Rittenhouse, Murray K. Clayton, Curtis H. Flather, Patrick D. Culbert, Brian D. Wardlows, Volker C. Radeloff

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts are expected to become more frequent under global climate change. Avifauna depend on precipitation for hydration, cover, and food. While there are indications that avian communities respond negatively to drought, little is known about the response of birds with differing functional and behavioral traits, what time periods and indicators of drought are most relevant, or how response varies geographically at broad spatial scales. Our goals were thus to determine (1) how avian abundance and species richness are related to drought, (2) whether community variations are more related to vegetation vigor or precipitation deviations and at what time periods relationships …

Combined Effects Of Heat Waves And Droughts On Avian Communities Across The Conterminous United States, Thomas P. Albright, Anna M. Pidgeon, Chadwick D. Rittenhouse, Murray K. Clayton, Brian D. Wardlow, Curtis H. Flather, Patrick D. Culbert, Volker C. Radeloff

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Increasing surface temperatures and climatic variability associated with global climate change are expected to produce more frequent and intense heat waves and droughts in many parts of the world. Our goal was to elucidate the fundamental, but poorly understood, effects of these extreme weather events on avian communities across the conterminous United States. Specifically, we explored: (1) the effects of timing and duration of heat and drought events, (2) the effects of jointly occurring drought and heat waves relative to these events occurring in isolation, and (3) how effects vary among functional groups related to nest location and migratory habit, …

Evaluation Of Modis Ndvi And Ndwi For Vegetation Drought Monitoring Using Oklahoma Mesonet Soil Moisture Data, Yingxin Gu, Eric Hunt, Brian Wardlow, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jesslyn F. Brown, James P. Verdin

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The evaluation of the relationship between satellitederived vegetation indices (normalized difference vegetation index and normalized difference water index) and soil moisture improves our understanding of how these indices respond to soil moisture fluctuations. Soil moisture deficits are ultimately tied to drought stress on plants. The diverse terrain and climate of Oklahoma, the extensive soil moisture network of the Oklahoma Mesonet, and satellitederived indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provided an opportunity to study correlations between soil moisture and vegetation indices over the 2002–2006 growing seasons. Results showed that the correlation between both indices and the fractional water index …

The Vegetation Drought Response Index (Vegdri): A New Integrated Approach For Monitoring Drought Stress In Vegetation, Jesslyn F. Brown, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Michael Hayes, Bradley C. Reed

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The development of new tools that provide timely, detailed-spatial-resolution drought information is essential for improving drought preparedness and response. This paper presents a new method for monitoring drought-induced vegetation stress called the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI). VegDRI integrates traditional climate-based drought indicators and satellite-derived vegetation index metrics with other biophysical information to produce a 1 km map of drought conditions that can be produced in near-real time. The initial VegDRI map results for a 2002 case study conducted across seven states in the north-central United States illustrates the utility of VegDRI for improved large-area drought monitoring.

Drought Preparedness Planning: Building Institutional Capacity, Donald A. Wilhite, Michael Hayes, Cody L. Knutson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Past attempts to manage drought and its impacts through a reactive, crisis management approach have been ineffective, poorly coordinated, and untimely, as illustrated by the hydro- illogical cycle in Figure 1. The crisis management approach has been followed in both developed and developing countries. Because of the ineffectiveness of this approach, greater interest has evolved in recent years in the adoption of a more proactive risk-based management approach in some countries (see Chapter 6). Other countries are striving to obtain a higher level of preparedness through development of national action programs that are part of the United Nations Convention to …

A New Approach For Predicting Drought-Related Vegetation Stress: Integrating Satellite, Climate, And Biophysical Data Over The U.S. Central Plains, Tsegaue Tadesse, Jesslyn F. Brown, Michael Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts are normal climate episodes, yet they are among the most expensive natural disasters in the world. Knowledge about the timing, severity, and pattern of droughts on the landscape can be incorporated into effective planning and decisionmaking. In this study, we present a data mining approach to modeling vegetation stress due to drought and mapping its spatial extent during the growing season. Rule-based regression tree models were generated that identify relationships between satellite-derived vegetation conditions, climatic drought indices, and biophysical data, including land-cover type, available soil water capacity, percent of irrigated farm land, and ecological type. The data mining method …

Discovering Associations Between Climatic And Oceanic Parameters To Monitor Drought In Nebraska Using Data-Mining Techniques, Tsegaye Tadesse, Donald A. Wilhite, Michael J. Hayes, Steve Goddard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a complex natural hazard that is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters. Improving our understanding of the relationships between these parameters is necessary to reduce the impacts of drought. Data mining is a recently developed technique that can be used to interact with large databases and assist in the discovery of associations between drought and oceanic data by extracting information from massive and multiple data archives. In this study, a new data-mining algorithm [i.e., Minimal Occurrences With Constraints and Time Lags (MOWCATL)] has been used to identify the relationships between oceanic parameters and drought indices. Rather …

An Agricultural Drought Risk-Assessment Model For Corn And Soybeans, Hong Wu, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. Published by Wiley InterScience. Used by permis-sion.

Drought Monitoring Using Data Mining Techniques: A Case Study For Nebraska, Usa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Donald A. Wilhite, Sherri K. Harms, Michael J. Hayes, Steve Goddard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought has an impact on many aspects of society. To help decision makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve our understanding of the characteristics and relationships of atmospheric and oceanic parameters that cause drought. In this study, the use of data mining techniques is introduced to find associations between drought and several oceanic and climatic indices that could help users in making knowledgeable decisions about drought responses before the drought actually occurs. Data mining techniques enable users to search for hidden patterns and find association rules for target data sets such as drought episodes. These techniques …