Environmental Monitoring Commons^™

Droughtscape, Fall 2022, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Fall 2022

Getting Ahead Of Flash Drought: From Early Warning To Early Action, Jason A. Otkin, Molly Woloszyn, Hailan Wang, Mark D. Svoboda, Marina Skumanich, Roger Pulwarty, Joel Lisonbee, Andrew Hoell, Mike Hobbins, Tonya Haigh, Amanda E. Cravens

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational …

Sea Level Rise Estimation On The Pacific Coast From Southern California To Vancouver Island, Xiaoxing He, Jean-Philippe Montillet, Rui Fernandes, Timothy I. Melbourne, Weiping Jiang, Zhengkai Huang

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Previous studies have estimated the sea level rise (SLR) at various locations on the west coast of the USA and Vancouver Island in Canada. Here, we construct an entire SLR profile from Vancouver Island in the Pacific Northwest to San Diego in Southern California. First, we process global navigation satellite system (GNSS) measurements at 405 stations blanketing the whole coast to generate a profile of vertical land motion (VLM) known to bias century-long tide gauge (TG) measurements recording relative SLR (RSLR). We are then able to estimate the absolute SLR (ASLR) by correcting the SLR with the VLM. Our study …

Spatio-Temporal Changes In Vegetation In The Last Two Decades (2001–2020) In The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, Yuan Zou, Wei Chen, Siliang Li, Tiejun Wang, Le Yu, Min Xu, Ramesh P. Singh, Cong-Qiang Liu

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

In terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation is sensitive to climate change and human activities. Its spatial-temporal changes also affect the ecological and social environment. In this paper, we considered the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region to study the spatio-temporal vegetation patterns. The detailed analysis of a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were carried out through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Our results show a slow and tortuous upward trend in the average leaf area index (LAI) in the study region for the periods 2001–2020. Specifically, Beijing had the highest LAI value, with an average of 1.64 over twenty years, followed by Hebei (1.30) and …

Prediction Of Cultivation Areas For The Commercial And An Early Flowering Wild Accession Of Salvia Hispanica L. In The United States, Mohammad Hassani, Thomas Piechota, Hagop S. Atamian

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Salvia hispanica L., commonly known as chia, is a plant-based alternative to seafood and is rich in heart-healthy omega-3 fatty acid, protein, fiber, and antioxidants. In the Northern Hemisphere, chia flowering is triggered by the fall equinox (12-h light and dark, early October) and the seeds mature after approximately three months. Chia is sensitive to frost and end of season moisture which limits its cultivation to small areas in regions with temperate climate. The U.S. chia import has increased considerably over the years; however, chia is not widely cultivated in the United States. This study used the historical U.S. temperature …

Droughtscape, Summer 2022, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Summer 2022

Emissions Baseline Report For The Agriculture Sector In Western Australia, Mandy Curnow, Christophe D'Abbadie, Robert French, Jackie Bucat, Dario Stefanelli, Neil Lantzke, Valeria Almeida Lima, Jess Austen, Lee Chester, Kate Pritchett, Millie Brady, Dylan Bennett

Climate Science Published Reports

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report found that climate impacts are appearing earlier and are more severe than expected. The world faces multiple unavoidable climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5ºC and accelerated action is required to avoid mortality and loss of biodiversity and infrastructure.

Achieving Climate Resilience requires both climate adaptation and mitigation of Greenhouse Gases which are accelerating climate change. Western Australia is committed to building resilience of the agriculture industry and as part of that is focussed on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at both an industry and government …

Developing A Miniature Smart Boat For Marine Research, Michael Isaac Eirinberg

Computer Engineering

This project examines the development of a smart boat which could serve as a possible marine research apparatus. The smart boat consists of a miniature vessel containing a low-cost microcontroller to live stream a camera feed, GPS telemetry, and compass data through its own WiFi access point. The smart boat also has the potential for autonomous navigation. My project captivated the interest of several members of California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo’s (Cal Poly SLO) Marine Science Department faculty, who proposed a variety of fascinating and valuable smart boat applications.

Utilizing Novel Field And Data Exploration Methods To Explore Hot Moments In High-Frequency Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions Data: Opportunities And Challenges, Christine S. O'Connell, Tyler L. Anthony, Melanie A. Mayes, Tibisay Pérez, Debjani Sihi, Whendee L. Silver

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions are an important driver of climate change and are a major mechanism of labile nitrogen (N) loss from terrestrial ecosystems. Evidence increasingly suggests that locations on the landscape that experience biogeochemical fluxes disproportionate to the surrounding matrix (hot spots) and time periods that show disproportionately high fluxes relative to the background (hot moments) strongly influence landscape-scale soil N₂O emissions. However, substantial uncertainties remain regarding how to measure and model where and when these extreme soil N₂O fluxes occur. High-frequency datasets of soil N₂O fluxes are newly possible …

Maximization Of Fitness By Phenological And Phenotypic Plasticity In Range Expanding Rabbitfishes (Siganidae), Salvador Zarco-Perello, David Fairclough, Chris Dowling, Joey Dibattista, Rachel Austin, Thomas Wernberg, Brett Taylor

Fisheries Research Articles

1. Global warming is modifying the phenology, life-history traits and biogeography of species around the world. Evidence of these effects have increased over recent decades; however, we still have a poor understanding of the possible outcomes of their interplay across global climatic gradients, hindering our ability to accurately predict the consequences of climate change in populations and ecosystems.
2. We examined the effect that changes in biogeography can have on the life-history traits of two of the most successful range-extending fish species in the world: the tropical rabbitfishes Siganus fuscescens and Siganus rivulatus. Both species have established abundant populations at higher …

High Spatial And Temporal Resolution Census Data Reveal Communities At Risk Along The Wildland-Urban Interface (Wui) In California, Usa, Shenyue Jia, Slade Lazeweski, Jessica E. Viner, Wesley Ho, Brian Hoover

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

We tracked census tract level population change along California's wild land-urban interface (WUI) during the past decade (2010-2019), an ecological sensitive region transitioning from developed land to wilderness. Our results from Mann-Kendall analysis, a method employed for monotonic trend detection showed that about one-third (29.1%) of census tracts in California’s WUI have seen a significant population increase from 2010 to 2019, affecting 12.7% population in California. The population increase along WUI is largely driven by the sixteen counties in the San Francisco Bay Area (10) and Southern California (6). We also found that higher proportion of WUI residents in Bay …

Evaluating Alternative Ebullition Models For Predicting Peatland Methane Emission And Its Pathways Via Data–Model Fusion, Shuang Ma, Lifen Jiang, Rachel M. Wilson, Jeff P. Chanton, Scott Bridgham, Shuli Niu, Colleen M. Iversen, Avni Malhotra, Jiang Jiang, Xingjie Lu, Yuanyuan Huang, Jason Keller, Xiaofeng Xu, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul J. Hanson, Yiqi Luo

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, …

Droughtscape, Spring 2022, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2022

Aquatic Diversity In A Changing Tropical Andean Glacierized Catchment: Macroinvertebrates Reveal Possible Important Consequences To The Chimborazo Region As Glaciers Recede And The Climate Continues To Change, Tanner Thomas

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Tropical Andean glaciers are retreating rapidly, and their disappearance will have drastic consequences for the people and ecosystems that depend on them. While they have begun to receive the attention they deserve in scientific literature, much is still not known. Majority of these investigations have taken place on the Volcán Antisana, while other important glacierized systems, like the Volcán Chimborazo have received little attention. This investigation aimed to a) evaluate the possible effects of glacier loss and climate change on aquatic ecosystems by comparing glacial meltwater, non-glacial and mixed streams, and b) to evaluate the effects of pasture intensity on …

Destruction Is A Must-See: Coastal Heritage Site Erosion And Public Perception Of Climate Change, Haley Borowy

Senior Theses

Archaeological sites in South Carolina are vanishing. As sea level rise, and therefore coastal erosion, worsen, more sites will disappear. The questions of how erosion at these sites is measured and how the public perceives the effects of climate change have been studied separately, but not together. Here, the intersection of these is discussed, alongside how sites are portrayed affects how the public perceives them, and therefore their importance. Studies on measuring coastal erosion, local news reports, government documents, and public perception of coastal management and sea level rise illuminate how people eventually decide what is worth saving.

A General Pattern Of Trade-Offs Between Ecosystem Resistance And Resilience To Tropical Cyclones, Christopher J. Patrick, John S. Kominoski, William H. Mcdowell, Benjamin Branoff, David Lagomasino, Miguel Leon, Enie Hensel, Marc J. S. Hensel, Bradley A. Strickland, T. Mitchell Aide, Anna Armitage, Marconi Campos-Cerqueira, Victoria M. Congdon, Todd A. Crowl, Donna J. Devlin, Sarah Douglas, Brad E. Erisman, Rusty A. Feagin, Simon J. Geist, Nathan S. Hall, Amber K. Hardison, Michael R. Heithaus, J. Aaron Hogan, J. Derek Hogan, Sean Kinard, Jeremy J. Kiszka, Teng-Chiu Lin, Kaijun Lu, Christopher J. Madden, Paul A. Montagna, Christine S. O'Connell, C. Edward Proffitt, Brandi Kiel Reese, Joseph W. Reustle, Kelly L. Robinson, Scott A. Rush, Rolando O. Santos, Astrid Schnetzer, Delbert L. Smee, Rachel S. Smith, Gregory Starr, Beth A. Stauffer, Lily M. Walker, Carolyn A. Weaver, Michael S. Wetz, Elizabeth R. Whitman, Sara S. Wilson, Jianhong Xue, Xiaoming Zou

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Tropical cyclones drive coastal ecosystem dynamics, and their frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are predicted to shift with climate change. Patterns of resistance and resilience were synthesized for 4138 ecosystem time series from n = 26 storms occurring between 1985 and 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere to predict how coastal ecosystems will respond to future disturbance regimes. Data were grouped by ecosystems (fresh water, salt water, terrestrial, and wetland) and response categories (biogeochemistry, hydrography, mobile biota, sedentary fauna, and vascular plants). We observed a repeated pattern of trade-offs between resistance and resilience across analyses. These patterns are likely the outcomes …

Sensitivity Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet To +2 °C (Swais 2c), Molly O. Patterson, Richard H. Levy, Denise K. Kulhanek, Tina Van De Flierdt, Huw Horgan, Gavin B. Dunbar, Timothy R. Naish, Jeanine Ash, Alex Pyne, Darcy Mandeno, J. Paul Winberry

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) presently holds enough ice to raise global sea level by 4.3 m if completely melted. The unknown response of the WAIS to future warming remains a significant challenge for numerical models in quantifying predictions of future sea level rise. Sea level rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of human-induced climate change. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Warming of 2 ^∘C (SWAIS 2C) Project aims to understand past and current drivers and thresholds of WAIS dynamics to improve projections of the rate and size of ice sheet …

Black Carbon And Organic Carbon Dataset Over The Third Pole, Shichang Kang, Yulan Zhang, Pengfei Chen, Junming Guo, Qianggong Zhang, Zhiyuan Cong, Susan Kaspari, Lekhendra Tripathee, Tanguang Gao, Hewen Niu, Xinyue Zhong, Xintong Chen, Zhaofu Hu, Xiaofei Li, Yang Li, Bigyan Neupane, Fangping Yan, Dipesh Rupakheti, Chaman Gul, Wei Zhang, Guangming Wu, Ling Yang, Zhaoqing Wang, Chaoliu Li

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

The Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, also known as the Third Pole, play an important role in the global and regional climate and hydrological cycle. Carbonaceous aerosols (CAs), including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), can directly or indirectly absorb and scatter solar radiation and change the energy balance on the Earth. CAs, along with the other atmospheric pollutants (e.g., mercury), can be frequently transported over long distances into the inland Tibetan Plateau. During the last decades, a coordinated monitoring network and research program named “Atmospheric Pollution and Cryospheric Changes” (APCC) has been gradually set up and continuously operated …

Greater Loss And Fragmentation Of Savannas Than Forests Over The Last Three Decades In Yunnan Province, China, R Sedricke Lapuz, Angelica Kristina M. Jaojoco, Sheryl Rose C. Reyes, Jose Don T. De Alban, Kyle W. Tomlinson

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

Yunnan Province, southwest China, has a monsoonal climate suitable for a mix of fire-driven savannas and fire-averse forests as alternate stable states, and has vast areas with savanna physiognomy. Presently, savannas are only formally recognised in the dry valleys of the region, and a no-fire policy has been enforced nationwide since the 1980s. Misidentification of savannas as forests may have contributed to their low protection level and fire-suppression may be contributing to vegetation change towards forest states through woody encroachment. Here, we present an analysis of vegetation and land-use change in Yunnan for years 1986, 1996, 2006, and 2016 by …

Droughtscape, Winter 2022, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Winter 2022

Emerging Technologies And Approaches For In Situ, Autonomous Observing In The Arctic, Craig M. Lee, Michael Degrandpre, John Guthrie, Victoria Hill, Ron Kwok, James Morison, Christopher J. Cox, Hanumant Singh, Timothy P. Stanton, Jeremy Wilkinson

OES Faculty Publications

Understanding and predicting Arctic change and its impacts on global climate requires broad, sustained observations of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, yet technological and logistical challenges severely restrict the temporal and spatial scope of observing efforts. Satellite remote sensing provides unprecedented, pan-Arctic measurements of the surface, but complementary in situ observations are required to complete the picture. Over the past few decades, a diverse range of autonomous platforms have been developed to make broad, sustained observations of the ice-free ocean, often with near-real-time data delivery. Though these technologies are well suited to the difficult environmental conditions and remote logistics that complicate Arctic …

Characterization Of Site-Specific Vegetation Activity In Alaskan Wet And Dry Tundra As Related To Climate And Soil State, Michael Gregory Brown, Kyle C. Mcdonald, Reiner Zimmermann, Nicholas Steiner, Stephanie Devries, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez

Advanced Science Research Center

We present discrete (2-h resolution) multi-year (2008–2017) in situ measurements of seasonal vegetation growth and soil biophysical properties from two sites on Alaska's North Slope, USA, representing dry and wet sedge tundra. We examine measurements of vertical active soil layer temperature and soil moisture profiles (freeze/thaw status), woody shrub vegetation physiological activity, and meteorological site data to assess interrelationships within (and between) these two study sites. Vegetation phenophases (cold de-hardening start, physiological function start, stem growth start, stem growth end, physiological function end, cold hardening completion) were found to have greater interannual day of year (DOY) occurrence variability at the …

Progressive Destabilization And Triggering Mechanism Analysis Using Multiple Data For Chamoli Rockslide Of 7 February 2021, Wenfei Mao, Lixin Wu, Ramesh P. Singh, Yuan Qi, Busheng Xie, Yingjia Liu, Yifan Ding, Zilong Zhou, Jia Li

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

A catastrophic rockslide occurred on 7 February 2021 in Chamoli area in the high Himalaya. In the absence of field data, multiple satellites data of decade span have been used to investigate and understand the progressive destabilization of rockslide body. A 3D geometric model was developed using geospatial information about geology, terrain, and ice cover to understand the triggering mechanism. Several causes are uncovered as: the pronounced long-term change of land surface temperature facilitated local permafrost degradation and led to ice cover shrinking since 2010; the occurrence of ice avalanche nearby in 2016 accompanying with sidewall-to-bedrock fracturing enhanced the ice …

Identification And Characterization Of Forest Fire Risk Zones Leveraging Machine Learning Methods, Joshua Balson, Matt Chinchilla, Cam Lu, Jeff Washburn, Nibhrat Lohia

SMU Data Science Review

Across the United States, record numbers of wildfires are observed costing billions of dollars in property damage, polluting the environment, and putting lives at risk. The ability of emergency management professionals, city planners, and private entities such as insurance companies to determine if an area is at higher risk of a fire breaking out has never been greater. This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying and characterizing zones with increased risks of forest fires. Methods involving machine learning techniques use the widely available and recorded data, thus making it possible to implement the tool quickly.

Making Agriculture Carbon Neutral Amid A Changing Climate: The Case Of South-Western Australia, Ross Kingwell

Climate Science Research Articles

Making Australian agriculture carbon neutral by 2050 is a goal espoused by several agricultural organisations in Australia. How costly might it be to attain that goal, especially when adverse climate change projections apply to agriculture in southern Australia? This study uses scenario analysis to examine agricultural emissions and their abatement via reforestation in south-western Australia under projected climate change. Most scenarios include the likelihood of agricultural emissions being reduced in the coming decades. However, the impact of projected adverse climate change on tree growth and tree survival means that the cost of achieving agricultural carbon neutrality via reforestation is forecast …

California Drought Outlooks Based On Climate Change Models’ Effects On Water Availability, Lauren Lynam, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Future streamflow in California is evaluated based on eight climate projections models and the effects on water availability. The unimpaired projected streamflow for eleven California rivers, collected from Cal-Adapt, are compared with unimpaired historical flows (1950–2015) using eight climate model projections (2020–2099) identified as representative as possible future scenarios; Warm Dry RCP 4.5, Average RCP 4.5, Cool Wet RCP 4.5, Other RCP 4.5, Warm Dry RCP 8.5, Average RCP 8.5, Cool Wet RCP 8.5, and Other RCP 8.5. Projected drought deficits (or magnitudes), durations, and intensities are statistically tested against historical values to determine significance of differences between past streamflow …

Assessing The Vegetation Condition Impacts Of The 2011 Drought Across The U.S. Southern Great Plains Using The Vegetation Drought Response Index (Vegdri), Tsegaye Tadesse, Brian D. Wardlow, Jesslyn F. Brown, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes, Brian Fuchs, Denise Gutzmer

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of recordbreaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the …

Droughtscape, Fall 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Fall 2021

A Case Study Using 2019 Pre-Monsoon Snow And Stream Chemistry In The Khumbu Region, Nepal, Heather M. Clifford, Mariusz Potocki, Inka Koch, Tenzing Sherpa, Mike Handley, Elena Korotkikh, Douglas Introne, Susan Kaspari, Kimberley Miner, Tom Matthews, Baker Perry, Heather Guy, Ananta Gajurel, Praveen Kumar Singh, Sandra Elvin, Aurora C. Elmore, Alex Tait, Paul A. Mayewski

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

This case study provides a framework for future monitoring and evidence for human source pollution in the Khumbu region, Nepal. We analyzed the chemical composition (major ions, major/trace elements, black carbon, and stable water isotopes) of pre-monsoon stream water (4300–5250 m) and snow (5200–6665 m) samples collected from Mt. Everest, Mt. Lobuche, and the Imja Valley during the 2019 pre-monsoon season, in addition to a shallow ice core recovered from the Khumbu Glacier (5300 m). In agreement with previous work, pre-monsoon aerosol deposition is dominated by dust originating from western sources and less frequently by transport from southerly air mass …

Science Is For Everybody: A Resource For Understanding Glaciers, Climate, And Modeling, Emma Watson

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Climate change threatens the existence of glaciers worldwide. In order to properly interact with these changing systems, we must first understand them. Glacial models provide an excellent way to do this; however, the language and mathematical concepts used in their creation is generally inaccessible to a common audience. This project presents an online resource for a general audience to interact with climate science, glaciology, and glacial modeling. Long term goals for the project include the incorporation of a glacial model of Drangajökull, Vestfirðir, NW Iceland. As such, focus for the project includes a literature review of glaciers, Drangajökull in particular, …