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Droughtscape, Summer 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the director

Drought expands and intensifies

Dry down fuels fires

Tweeting #drought18

MOISST and NSMN

Caribbean planning progress

Drought observer network study

MENA teams report progress

NDMC global outreach

Climate hub workshop

On the horizon

A Comparative Study On Coastal Zone Changes And Anthropogenic Impacts Between Tampa Bay, Usa, And Xiangshan Harbor, China, During The Last 30 Years, Qiandong Guo

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Currently, the U.S. and China are the two largest national economic entities in the world. However, it is noticeable that the two countries have considerably different strategies for economic development, environmental protection and land supply in coastal zones. In order to understand the coastline dynamics, land use land cover (LULC) changes and land management policies in the U.S. and China, a case study of the Tampa Bay (TB) watershed, Florida, U.S., and Xiangshan Harbor (XH), Zhejiang Province, China was conducted. The two areas possess similar humid subtropical climate and dense population, but experienced different anthropogenic impacts. TB sat at a …

Tracking Drought Perspectives: A Rural Case Study Of Transformations Following An Invisible Hazard, Theresa Jedd, Deborah Bathke, Duane Gill, Bimal Paul, Nicole Wall, Tonya Bernadt, Jacob Peter, Anthony Mucia, Milan Wall

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rural towns are especially susceptible to the effects of drought because their economies are dependent on natural resources. However, they are also resilient in many ways to natural hazards because they are rich in civic engagement and social capital. Because of the diverse nature of drought’s impacts, understanding its complex dynamics and its effects requires a multidisciplinary approach. To study these dynamics, this research combines appreciative inquiry, the Community Capitals Framework, and a range of climatological monitoring data to assess the 2012–14 Great Plains drought’s effect on McCook, Nebraska. Community coping measures, such as water-use reduction and public health programs, …

Spar Caves As Fossil Hydrothermal Systems: Timing And Origin Of Ore Deposits In The Delaware Basin And Guadalupe Mountains, New Mexico And Texas, Usa, David D. Decker, Victor J. Polyak, Yemane Asmerom

International Journal of Speleology

Studies of sulfuric acid hypogene speleogenesis have contributed significantly to understanding the history of the Guadalupe Mountains of southeast New Mexico and west Texas for at least the past 12 Ma. A recently published hypothesis of supercritical CO₂ spar cave genesis provides information that constrains the timing of the start of uplift to between 27 and 16 Ma, and helps to explain landscape evolution of this region for the last 185 Ma. This new speleogenetic model is summarized here and shows that U-Pb dating of crystals from different spar caves reveal different ages, and that a majority of the …

Nonbreeding Duck Use At Central Flyway National Wildlife Refuges, Kent Andersson, Craig A. Davis, Grant Harris, David A. Haukos

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Within the U.S. portion of the Central Flyway, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages waterfowl on numerous individual units (i.e., Refuges) within the National Wildlife Refuge System. Presently, the extent of waterfowl use that Refuges receive and the contribution of Refuges to waterfowl populations (i.e., the proportion of the Central Flyway population registered at each Refuge) remain unassessed. Such an evaluation would help determine to what extent Refuges support waterfowl relative to stated targets, aid in identifying species requiring management attention, inform management targets, and improve fiscal efficiencies. Using historic monitoring data (1954–2008), we performed this assessment for 23 …

Evaluation Of Potential Translocation Sites For An Imperiled Cyprinid, The Hornyhead Chub, Brian T. Hickerson, Annika W. Walters

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Translocation of isolated species into suitable habitats may help to secure vulnerable, geographically limited species. Due to the decline of Wyoming Hornyhead Chub Nocomis biguttatus, conservation actions, such as the translocation of populations within the plausible historical range, are being considered to improve population redundancy and resiliency to disturbance events. Translocation of Wyoming Hornyhead Chub must be rigorously evaluated because a hatchery stock does not exist, so all fish used in translocations will come from the wild population. We present an approach to identify the best available translocation sites prior to translocation efforts taking place. We evaluated fish community composition …

Macrobenthic Infaunal Communities Associated With Deep‐Sea Hydrocarbon Seeps In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico, Travis W. Washburn, Amanda W. J. Demopoulos, Paul A. Montagna

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

There are thousands of seeps in the deep ocean worldwide; however, many questions remain about their contributions to global biodiversity and the surrounding deep‐sea environment. In addition to being globally distributed, seeps provide several benefits to humans such as unique habitats, organisms with novel genes, and carbon regulation. The purpose of this study is to determine whether there are unique seep macrobenthic assemblages, by comparing seep and nonseep environments, different seep habitats, and seeps at different depths and locations. Infaunal community composition, diversity, and abundance were examined between seep and nonseep background environments and among three seep habitats (i.e., microbial …

Organochlorine Chemical Residues In Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis Cardinalis) Eggs From Greater Washington, Dc Usa, Christopher J. Schmitt, Kathy E. Echols, Paul H. Peterman, Carl E. Orazio, K. Christiana Grim, Shirlee Tan, Nora E. Diggs, Peter P. Marra

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Northern Cardinal eggs from six neighborhoods near Washington DC were analyzed for organochlorine pesticides and PCBs. All compounds were detected more frequently and at higher concentrations in more heavily urbanized neighborhoods. DDT (mostly as p,pʹ-DDE) was detected in all neighborhoods. p,pʹ-DDT was typically 0.5‒16 ng/g (ww) in most suburban neighborhoods but was not detected (< 0.1 ng/g) in more rural areas; however, p,pʹ-DDT was 127‒1130 ng/g in eggs from two suburban Maryland nests and comprised 65.7% of total p,pʹ-DDT isomers in the most contaminated sample, indicating recent exposure to un-weathered DDT. Total chlordane (sum of 5 compounds) was 2‒70 ng/g; concentrations were greatest in older suburban neighborhoods. Total PCB (sum of detected congeners) was < 5‒21 ng/g. Congener patterns were similar in all neighborhoods and resembled those typical of weathered mixtures. Results indicate that wildlife remains exposed to low concentrations of legacy contaminants in suburban neighborhoods and that cardinal eggs can be used to monitor local- ized contamination.

Smap Soil Moisture Change As An Indicator Of Drought Conditions, Rajasekaran Eswar, Narendra N. Das, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Ali Behrangi, John Swigart, Mark D. Svoboda, Dara Entekhabi, Simon Yueh, Bradley Doorn, Jared Entin

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is considered a key variable in drought analysis. The soil moisture dynamics given by the change in soil moisture between two time periods can provide information on the intensification or improvement of drought conditions. The aim of this work is to analyze how the soil moisture dynamics respond to changes in drought conditions over multiple time intervals. The change in soil moisture estimated from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite observations was compared with the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicated that the …

Radical Social Ecology As Deep Pragmatism: A Call To The Abolition Of Systemic Dissonance And The Minimization Of Entropic Chaos, Arielle Brender

Student Theses 2015-Present

This paper aims to shed light on the dissonance caused by the superimposition of Dominant Human Systems on Natural Systems. I highlight the synthetic nature of Dominant Human Systems as egoic and linguistic phenomenon manufactured by a mere portion of the human population, which renders them inherently oppressive unto peoples and landscapes whose wisdom were barred from the design process. In pursuing a radical pragmatic approach to mending the simultaneous oppression and destruction of the human being and the earth, I highlight the necessity of minimizing entropic chaos caused by excess energy expenditure, an essential feature of systems that aim …

Characterization Of Ground Deformation Associated With Shallow Groundwater Processes Using Satellite Radar Interferometry, Xie Hu

Earth Sciences Theses and Dissertations

Shallow groundwater processes maylead to ground deformation and even geohazards. With the features of day-and-night accessibility and large-scale coverage, time-series interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has proven a useful tool for mapping the deformation over various landscapes at cm to mm level with weekly to monthly updates. However, it has limitations such as, decorrelation,atmospheric artifacts, topographic errors, andunwrapping errors, in particular for the hilly, vegetated, and complicated deformation patterns. In this dissertation, I focus on characterizing the ground deformation over landslides, aquifer systems, and mine tailings impoundment, using the designed advanced time-series InSAR strategy, as well as theinterdisciplinary knowledge of …

Predicting Spatial Patterns In Precipitation Isotope (Δ2h And Δ18o) Seasonality Using Sinusoidal Isoscapes, Scott T. Allen, James W. Kirchner, Gregory R. Goldsmith

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Understanding how precipitation isotopes vary spatially and temporally is important for tracer applications. We tested how well month‐to‐month variations in precipitation δ18O and δ2H were captured by sinusoidal cycles, and how well spatial variations in these seasonal cycles could be predicted, across Switzerland. Sine functions representing seasonal cycles in precipitation isotopes explained between 47% and 94% of the variance in monthly δ18O and δ2H values at each monitoring site. A significant sinusoidal cycle was also observed in line‐conditioned excess. We interpolated the amplitudes, phases, and offsets of these sine functions across the landscape, using multiple linear …

Adam J. Liska: Curriculum Vitae, Adam Liska

Adam Liska Papers

Associate Professor, George Dempster Smith Chair of Industrial Ecology, Departments of Biological Systems Engineering and Agronomy & Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln 236 L.W. Chase Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0726, Ph: (402) 472-8744, e-mail: [email protected]

Ph.D. 2003 Biology (magna cum laude), Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology & Genetics, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany

Fm Radio Signal Propagation Evaluation And Creating Statistical Models For Signal Strength Prediction In Differing Topographic Environments, Timothy Land

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Radio wave signal strength and associated propagation models are rarely analyzed across individual geographic provinces. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Radio Mobile model to predict radio wave signal strength in the Blue Ridge and Valley and Ridge physiographic provinces. A spectrum analyzer was used on 19 FM transmitters to determine model accuracy. Statistical analysis determined the significance between different terrain factors and signal strength. Field signal strength was found to be related to test site elevation, transmitter azimuth, elevation angle, transmitter elevation, path loss, and distance. Using 76 signal strength receiver sites, Ordinary Least Square regression models predicted …

An Assessment Of Atmospheric And Meteorological Factors Regulating Red Sea Phytoplankton Growth, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed A. Qurban, Emmanouil Proestakis, Michael J. Garay, Olga V. Kalishnikova, Vassilis Amiridis, Antonis Gkikas, Eleni Marinou, Thomas Piechota, K. P. Manikandan

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study considers the various factors that regulate nutrients supply in the Red Sea. Multi-sensor observation and reanalysis datasets are used to examine the relationships among dust deposition, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed, as they may contribute to anomalous phytoplankton blooms, through time-series and correlation analyses. A positive correlation was found at 0–3 months lag between chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) anomalies and dust anomalies over the Red Sea regions. Dust deposition process was further examined with dust aerosols’ vertical distribution using satellite lidar data. Conversely, a negative correlation was found at 0–3 months lag between SST anomalies …

Downscaling Africa’S Drought Forecasts Through Integration Of Indigenous And Scientific Drought Forecasts Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Muthoni Masinde, Mwanjele Mwagha, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the wake of increased drought occurrences being witnessed in Sub-Saharan Africa, more localized and contextualized drought mitigation strategies are on the agendas of many researchers and policy makers in the region. The integration of indigenous knowledge on droughts with seasonal climate forecasts is one such strategy. The main challenge facing this integration, however, is the formal representation of highly-structured and holistic indigenous knowledge. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping can address this challenge. Indigenous knowledge on droughts from five communities was modeled and represented using fuzzy cognitive maps. Maps from one of these …

Assessing Land Deformation And Sea Encroachment In The Nile Delta, Egypt, Esayas Gebremichael

Research and Creative Activities Poster Day

Persistent scatterer interferometric analyses were conducted on a stack of 84 Envisat ASAR scenes spanning 7 years (2004 to 2010) over the entire Nile Delta of Egypt and surroundings to monitor the ongoing spatial and temporal land deformation, identify the factors controlling the deformation, and model the interplay between sea level rise and land subsidence to identify areas and populations threatened by sea encroachment by the end of the 21st century. Findings include: (1) general patterns of subsidence in the northern delta, near-steady (none) subsidence in the southern delta, separated by a previously mapped flexure zone undergoing uplift; (2) high …

Validation Of New Satellite Rainfall Products Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Tesfaye Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Tufa Dinku

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison …

T.D.A. Cockerell (1866–1948) Of The University Of Colorado: His Contributions To The Natural History Of The California Islands And The Establishment Of Channel Islands National Monument, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Theodore Dru Alison Cockerell was a naturalist at the University of Colorado from 1904 to 1947 and studied botany, zoology, and paleontology in North and South America, Asia, Australia, Africa, and Europe. In the latter part of his career, he studied the California islands and published many papers on their natural history, 16 of them in four years (1937–1940). He made important contributions to the natural history of the islands in four distinct ways: entomology of the islands, including identification of a number of new species of bees; discovery of fossil marine invertebrate faunas and recognition that the zoogeography of …

Droughtscape, Spring 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa

NDMC on a global playing field

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts

Svoboda named to United Nations advisory group

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara

Connecting locally for global change

Geochemistry And Mineralogy Of Late Quaternary Loess In The Upper Mississippi River Valley, Usa: Provenance And Correlation With Laurentide Ice Sheet History, Daniel R. Muhs, E. Arthur Bettis Iii, Gary L. Skipp

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The midcontinent of North America contains some of the thickest and most extensive last-glacial loess deposits in the world, known as Peoria Loess. Peoria Loess of the upper Mississippi River valley region is thought to have had temporally varying glaciogenic sources resulting from inputs of sediment to the Mississippi River from different lobes of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Here, we explore a new method of determining loess provenance using K/Rb and K/Ba values (in K-feldspars and micas) in loess from a number of different regions in North America. Results indicate that K/Rb and K/Ba values can distinguish loess originating from …

Remote Sensing And Spatial Metrics For Quantifying Seagrass Landscape Changes: A Study On The 2011 Indian River Lagoon Florida Seagrass Die-Off Event, René Dieter Baumstark

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Florida’s seagrasses are ecologically important marine environments which have suffered major degradation caused by increasing anthropogenic pressures. A 2011 seagrass die-off event caused by an algal bloom in the Florida Indian River Lagoon (IRL) was particularly severe with a majority of seagrass lost in areas such as the Banana River. An understanding of how this coastal marine environment changed is an important step toward better managing resources for conservation. Modern tools and methods provide new opportunities to study these changes at the landscape scale, a scale that informs on the larger more comprehensive state of a system. Classified satellite imagery …

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Irrigated Agriculture And Future Climate Change Effects On Groundwater Recharge, Northern High Plains Aquifer, Usa, Zachary H. Lauffenburger, Jason J. Gurdak, Chris Hobza, Duane Woodward

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential (ψT) time series) and chemical tracer and dating (3H, Cl−, Br−, CFCs, SF6, and 3H/3He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D …

Extreme Precipitation Events, Impacts, Trends And Projections For Indiana, Sam Lashley

Purdue Road School

The National Weather Service is working with core partners to build a Weather Ready Nation for present and future generations by taking advanced action against the devastating impacts of extreme weather events, including extreme precipitation and flooding. One way in which this can be accomplished is by studying trends in historical weather data and applying what we learn to future mitigation efforts. The goal is to gain a better understanding of the magnitude and impacts that future extreme precipitation events may have on local infrastructure.

This presentation will review extreme rainfall and flooding events that have occurred across Indiana along …

Landscapes From The Waves—Marine Terraces Of California, Marjorie Schulz, Corey Lawrence, Daniel R. Muhs, Carol Prentice, Sam Flanagan

United States Geological Survey: Publications

M any coastlines around the world have stair-step landforms, known as marine terraces. Marine terraces make up a large part of coastal California’s landscape—from San Diego to Crescent City. Find out how these landscapes form, why marine terraces are of interest to scientists, and where you can explore these landscapes.

Marine terraces result from the interaction of two geologic processes: uplift of the land surface and the natural rise and fall of sea level over hundreds of thousands of years. As sea level rises, waves move underwater sediment—sand and gravel—back and forth against bedrock, acting like sandpaper to hone bedrock …

Comparison Of The Performance Of Six Drought Indices In Characterizing Historical Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Shreedhar Maskey, Tsegaye Tadesse, Schalk Jan Van Andel, Semu Moges, Ann Van Griensven, Dimitri Solomatine

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin is less-explored in terms of drought studies as compared to other parts of Ethiopia and lacks a basin-specific drought monitoring system. This study compares six drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), Aggregate Drought Index (ADI), and Standardized Runoff-discharge Index (SRI), and evaluates their performance with respect to identifying historic drought events in the UBN basin. The indices were calculated using monthly time series of observed precipitation, average temperature, river discharge, and modeled evapotranspiration and soil moisture from 1970 to 2010. …

Spectrally Based Bathymetric Mapping Of A Dynamic, Sandbedded Channel: Niobrara River, Nebraska, Usa, E. Dilbone, C.J. Legleiter, J.S. Alexander, B. Mcelroy

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Methods for spectrally based mapping of river bathymetry have been developed and tested in clear‐flowing, gravel‐bed channels, with limited application to turbid, sandbed rivers. This study used hyperspectral images and field surveys from the dynamic, sandy Niobrara River to evaluate three depth retrieval methods. The first regressionbased approach, optimal band ratio analysis (OBRA), paired in situ depth measurements with image pixel values to estimate depth. The second approach used ground‐based field spectra to calibrate an OBRA relationship. The third technique, image‐to‐depth quantile transformation (IDQT), estimated depth by linking the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of depth to the CDF of an …

Phytoforensics: Trees As Bioindicators Of Potential Indoor Exposure Via Vapor Intrusion, Jordan L. Wilson, V. A. Samaranayake, Matt A. Limmer, Joel G. Burken

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Human exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) via vapor intrusion (VI) is an emerging public health concern with notable detrimental impacts on public health. Phytoforensics, plant sampling to semi-quantitatively delineate subsurface contamination, provides a potential non-invasive screening approach to detect VI potential, and plant sampling is effective and also time- and cost-efficient. Existing VI assessment methods are time- and resourceintensive, invasive, and require access into residential and commercial buildings to drill holes through basement slabs to install sampling ports or require substantial equipment to install groundwater or soil vapor sampling outside the home. Tree-core samples collected in 2 days at …

Factors Influencing Farmers’ Adoption Of Best Management Practices: A Review And Synthesis, Tingting Liu, Randall J. F. Bruins, Matthew T. Heberling

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Best management practices (BMPs) for reducing agricultural non-point source pollution are widely available. However, agriculture remains a major global contributor to degradation of waters because farmers often do not adopt BMPs. To improve water quality, it is necessary to understand the factors that influence BMP adoption by farmers. We review the findings of BMP adoption studies from both developed and developing countries, published after (or otherwise not included in) two major literature reviews from 2007 and 2008. We summarize the study locations, scales, and BMPs studied; the analytical methods used; the factors evaluated; and the directionality of each factor’s influence …