Other Earth Sciences Commons^™

Exploiting Common Senses: Sensory Ecology Meets Wildlife Conservation And Management, Laura K. Elmer, Christine L. Madliger, Daniel T. Blumstein, Chris K. Elvidge, Esteban Ernández-Juricic, Andrij Z. Horodysky, Nicholas S. Johnson, Liam P. Mcguire, Ronald R. Swaisgood, Steven J. Cooke

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Multidisciplinary approaches to conservation and wildlife management are often effective in addressing complex, multi-factor problems. Emerging fields such as conservation physiology and conservation behaviour can provide innovative solutions and management strategies for target species and systems. Sensory ecology combines the study of ‘how animals acquire’ and process sensory stimuli from their environments, and the ecological and evolutionary significance of ‘how animals respond’ to this information. We review the benefits that sensory ecology can bring to wildlife conservation and management by discussing case studies across major taxa and sensory modalities. Conservation practices informed by a sensory ecology approach include the amelioration …

Ranchers’ Use Of Drought Contingency Plans In Protective Action Decision Making, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jolene Smyth, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Charles A. Francis, Mark Burbach

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought contingency planning is an increasingly common tool in the ranchers’ climate adaptation toolboxes, but its effect on drought response has not yet been evaluated. We use cognitive models of protective action decision making and planning to explore the effects of having a drought plan on the use of drought early warning information and drought response (and timing). Results of a cross-sectional, probability-based survey of livestock producers affected by a 2016 flash-drought are used to describe the characteristics of operations with drought plans and provide evidence of whether having a plan predicts drought information use and response. While larger operations …

Whose Ground Truth Is It? Harvesting Lessons From Missouri’S 2018 Bumper Crop Of Drought Observations, Kelly Helm Smith, Mark E. Burbach, Michael Hayes, Patrick Guinan, Andrew Tyre, Brian Fuchs, Tonya Haigh, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought-related decision-making and policy should go beyond numeric hydrometeorological data to incorporate information on how drought affects people, livelihoods, and ecosystems. The effects of drought are nested within environmental and human systems, and relevant data may not exist in readily accessible form. For example, drought may reduce forage growth, compounded by both late-season freezes and management decisions. An effort to gather crowdsourced drought observations in Missouri in 2018 yielded a much higher number of observations than did previous related efforts. Here we examine 1) the interests, circumstances, history, and recruitment messaging that coincided to produce a high number of reports …

Tweetdrought: A Deep-Learning Drought Impacts Recognizer Based On Twitter Data, Beichen Zhang, Frank Schilder, Kelly Helm Smith, Michael Hayes, Sherri Harms, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Acquiring a better understanding of drought impacts becomes increasingly vital under a warming climate. Traditional drought indices describe mainly biophysical variables and not impacts on social, economic, and environmental systems. We utilized natural language processing and bidirectional encoder representation from Transformers (BERT) based transfer learning to fine-tune the model on the data from the news-based Drought Impact Report (DIR) and then apply it to recognize seven types of drought impacts based on the filtered Twitter data from the United States. Our model achieved a satisfying macro-F1 score of 0.89 on the DIR test set. The model was then applied to …

Developing A Strategy For The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network, Michael H. Cosh, Todd G. Caldwell, C. Bruce Baker, John D. Bolten, Nathan Edwards, Peter Goble, Heather Hofman, Tyson E. Ochsner, Steven Quiring, Charles Schalk, Marina Skumanich, Mark D. Svoboda, Mary E. Woloszyn

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, affecting a wide variety of climatological, agricultural, and hydrological processes. Determining the current soil moisture status is possible via a variety of methods, including in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Although all of these approaches are rapidly evolving, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to integrate these diverse information sources to develop and disseminate coordinated national soil moisture products that will improve our ability to understand climate variability. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network initiative has developed a national strategy for network coordination with NOAA’s National Integrated Drought …

Evaluation Of Remotely Sensed Precipitation Estimates From The Nasa Power Project For Drought Detection Over Jordan, Muhammad Rasool Al‑Kilani, Michel Rahbeh, Jawad Al‑Bakri, Tsegaye Tadesse, Cody Knutson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts can cause devastating impacts on water and land resources and therefore monitoring these events forms an integral part of planning. The most common approach for detecting drought events and assessing their intensity is use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which requires abundant precipitation records at good spatial distribution. This may restrict SPI usage in many regions around the world, particularly in areas with limited numbers of ground meteorological stations. Therefore, the use of remotely sensed derived data of precipitation can contribute to drought monitoring. In this study, remotely sensed precipitation estimates from the POWER/Agroclimatology archive of NASA and …

A Novel Strategy To Reconstruct Ndvi Time-Series With High Temporal Resolution From Modis Multi-Temporal Composite Products, Linglin Zeng, Brian Wardlow, Shun Hu, Xiang Zhang, Guoqing Zhou, Guozhang Peng, Daxiang Xiang, Rui Wang, Ran Meng, Weixiong Wu

Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies: Publications

Vegetation indices (VIs) data derived from satellite imageries play a vital role in land surface vegetation and dynamic monitoring. Due to the excessive noises (e.g., cloud cover, atmospheric contamination) in daily VI data, temporal compositing methods are commonly used to produce composite data to minimize the negative influence of noise over a given compositing time interval. However, VI time series with high temporal resolution were preferred by many applications such as vegetation phenology and land change detections. This study presents a novel strategy named DAVIR-MUTCOP (DAily Vegetation Index Reconstruction based on MUlti-Temporal COmposite Products) method for normalized difference vegetation index …

Managing For Radical Ecosystem Change: Applying The Resist-Accept- Direct (Rad) Framework, Abigail J. Lynch, Laura M. Thompson, Erik A. Beever, David N. Cole, Augustin C. Engman, Cat Hawkins Hoffman, Stephen T. Jackson, Trevor J. Krabbenhoft, David J. Lawrence, Douglas Limpinsel, Robert T. Magill, Tracy A. Melvin, John M. Morton, Robert A. Newman, Jay O. Peterson, Mark T. Porath, Frank J. Rahel, Gregor W. Schuurman, Suresh A. Sethi, Jennifer L. Wilkening

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a …

Long-Term African Dust Delivery To The Eastern Atlantic Ocean From The Sahara And Sahel Regions: Evidence From Quaternary Paleosols On The Canary Islands, Spain, Daniel R. Muhs, Joaquín Meco, James R. Budahn, Gary L. Skipp, Kathleen R. Simmons, Matthew C. Baddock, Juan F. Betancourt, Alejandro Lomoschitz

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Africa is the most important source of dust in the world today and dust storms from that continent frequently deposit sediment on the nearby Canary Islands. Many investigators have inferred African dust inputs to Canary Islands paleosols based only on the presence of quartz. However, some local rocks do contain this mineral, so quartz alone is insufficient proof of dust deposition. Further, it is not known whether the Sahara Desert or the Sahel region is more important as a dust source. We address these issues by study of sequences of Pleistocene aeolian sands on the islands of Lanzarote and Fuerteventura. …

Eolian Sediments, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Eolian (windblown) sediments form some of the world’s most dramatic landscapes and comprise important parts of the geologic record. This article reviews the characteristics, origins, and significance of eolian deposits, including windblown sand, silt, and dust.

Landforms composed of eolian sand, either as dunes or sand sheets, occupy substantial areas over the surface of the Earth (perhaps as much as 6% globally, but over ~20% of the world’s arid zones, according to Pye and Tsoar, 2009). Low-latitude arid or semiarid regions, usually under the influence of subtropical high-pressure cells, are some of the largest areas of eolian sand accumulation (Lancaster, …

Ecology Of An Isolated Muskrat Population During Regional Population Declines, Laken S. Ganoe, Matthew J. Lovallo, Justin D. Brown, W. David Walter

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Evidence indicating a decline in Ondatra zibethicus (Muskrat) populations in the United States during the past 40 years has led to speculation regarding factors influencing Muskrat survival. In order to understand population dynamics and survival, it is important to first define the ecology of local populations. We investigated the dwelling structure use, movements, home range, and survival of radio-tagged Muskrats (n = 14) in an urban wetland complex in central Pennsylvania. We used locations collected from intensive radio-telemetry monitoring to determine number of lodging structures used, hourly movement, and size and percent area overlap of home ranges. Muskrats shared …

Quantifying Model Structural Uncertainty Using Airborne Electromagnetic Data, Burke J. Minsley, Nathan Leon Foks, Paul A. Bedrosian

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The ability to quantify structural uncertainty in geological models that incorporate geophysical data is affected by two primary sources of uncertainty: geophysical parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in the relationship between geophysical parameters and geological properties of interest. Here, we introduce an open-source, trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) algorithm GeoBIPy—Geophysical Bayesian Inference in Python—for robust uncertainty analysis of time-domain or frequency-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data. The McMC algorithm provides a robust assessment of geophysical parameter uncertainty using a trans-dimensional approach that lets the AEM data inform the level of model complexity necessary by allowing the number of model layers …

Elemental And Radionuclide Exposures And Uptakes By Small Rodents, Invertebrates, And Vegetation At Active And Post-Production Uranium Mines In The Grand Canyon Watershed, Danielle Cleveland, Jo Ellen Hinck, Julia S. Lankton

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The effects of breccia pipe uranium mining in the Grand Canyon watershed (Arizona) on ecological and cultural resources are largely unknown. We characterized the exposure of biota to uranium and cooccurring ore body elements during active ore production and at a site where ore production had recently concluded. Our results indicate that biota have taken up uranium and other elements (e.g., arsenic, cadmium, copper, molybdenum, uranium) from exposure to ore and surficial contamination, like blowing dust. Results indicate the potential for prolonged exposure to elements and radionuclides upon conclusion of active ore production. Mean radium-226 in deer mice was up …

Soils And Paleosols, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Publications

This article reviews the nature of modern and ancient soils. Soils are naturally occurring bodies that mantle most of the land surface of the Earth. They are found on virtually every part of the Earth’s land surface, other than areas covered by water bodies (lakes and rivers), glacial ice, or steep slopes in mountainous terrain. Soils occur at the interface of the geosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and atmosphere and are the medium of growth for much of the Earth’s plant and animal life. The study of soils as naturally occurring bodies on the Earth’s surface is called pedology (in contrast to …

Droughtscape, Winter 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Winter 2021

Experiential Learning In Soil Science: Evaluating Soil Quality In South Wollo, Ethiopia, Melissa Allen, Martha Mamo, Shimelis Beyene, Teshome Regassa, Gandura O. Abagandura, Solomon Abreha, Anthony James Mucia, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study abroad program provided an opportunity to enhance the international experience and research skills of University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) students within a multidisciplinary team’s research-education goal on improving food security in Ethiopia. The experiential study component of the project included preparatory sessions during the Fall 2015 Semester at the UNL followed by a four- to five-week fieldwork experience in Ethiopia. Teams from the UNL and an Ethiopian university participated in survey data collection and field soil evaluations from farms in the Gerado area of South Wollo, Ethiopia. Having students interact with farmers increased student self-confidence and enhanced their leadership …

Terrestrial Ecological Risk Analysis Via Dietary Exposure At Uranium Mine Sites In The Grand Canyon Watershed (Arizona, Usa), Jo Ellen Hinck, Danielle Cleveland, Bradley E. Sample

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The U.S. Department of the Interior recently included uranium (U) on a list of mineral commodities that are considered critical to economic and national security. The uses of U for commercial and residential energy production, defense applications, medical device technologies, and energy generation for space vehicles and satellites are known, but the environmental impacts of uranium extraction are not always well quantified. We conducted a screening-level ecological risk analysis based on exposure to miningrelated elements via diets and incidental soil ingestion for terrestrial biota to provide context to chemical characterization and exposures at breccia pipe U mines in northern Arizona. …

Metabarcoding Assays For The Detection Of Freshwater Mussels (Unionida) With Environmental Dna, Katy E. Klymus, Catherine A. Richter, Nathan Thompson, Jo Ellen Hinck, Jess W. Jones

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Freshwater mussels of the order Unionida are a widely distributed taxon that are important in maintaining freshwater ecosystems and are also highly imperiled throughout the world. Monitoring of mussel populations with environmental DNA (eDNA) is an attractive alternative to traditional methods because it is noninvasive and requires less labor and taxonomic knowledge from field personnel. We developed eDNA metabarcoding assays specific to freshwater mussels and tested them at six sites in the Clinch River, located in the southeastern United States. Our objective was to determine the utility of eDNA metabarcoding for future monitoring of mussel populations and restoration efforts in …

The Marine Terraces Of Santa Cruz Island, California: Implications For Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Models Of Last-Interglacial Sea-Level History, Daniel R. Muhs, R. Randall Schumann, Lindsey T. Groves, Kathleen R. Simmons, Christopher R. Florian

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models hypothesize that along coastal California, last interglacial (LIG, broadly from ~130 to ~115 ka) sea level could have been as high as +11 m to +13 m, relative to present, substantially higher than the commonly estimated elevation of +6 m. Areas with low uplift rates can test whether such models are valid. Marine terraces on Santa Cruz Island have previously been reported to occur at low (<10 m) elevations, but ages of many such localities are not known. Using lidar imagery as a base, marine terraces on Santa Cruz Island were newly mapped, elevations were measured, fossils were collected for U-series dating (corals), strontium isotope compositions and amino acid geochronology (mollusks), and paleozoogeography (all taxa). Sr isotope compositions of mollusks from the highest of three marine terraces give ages of ~2.5 Ma to 1.9 Ma, along with Pliocene ages, fromshells interpreted to be reworked. U-series ages of corals fromthewestern part of the island indicate that low-elevation terraces north of the Santa Cruz Island fault correlate to the LIG. Where corals are lacking, amino acid ratios and faunal aspects support terrace correlation to the LIG high stand of sea. Elevations of most terrace localities north of the east-west trending Santa Cruz Island fault, in both thewestern and eastern parts of the island, range from5.75mto 8mabove sea level, well belowthe modeled paleo-sealevel range. Subsidence is ruled out as a mechanism for explaining the lower-than-modeled elevations, because higher-elevation terraces are present alongmuch of the Santa Cruz Island coast north of the fault, indicating longterm tectonic uplift. The low elevations of the LIG terrace fragments are, however, consistent with a low rate of uplift derived from the higher, ~2.5–1.9 Ma terrace. A number of other localities on the Pacific Coast, also dated to the LIG, have marine terrace elevations below the modeled level. GIA models may have overestimated last interglacial sea level by a substantial amount and need to be revised if used for forecasts for future sea-level rise.

Building An Improved Drought Climatology Using Updated Drought Tools: A New Mexico Food-Energy-Water (Few) Systems Focus, Lindsay E. Johnson, Hatim M.E. Geli, Michael J. Hayes, Kelly Helm Smith

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a familiar climatic phenomenon in the United States Southwest, with complex human-environment interactions that extend beyond just the physical drought events. Due to continued climate variability and change, droughts are expected to become more frequent and/or severe in the future. Decision-makers are charged with mitigating and adapting to these more extreme conditions and to do that they need to understand the specific impacts drought has on regional and local scales, and how these impacts compare to historical conditions. Tremendous progress in drought monitoring strategies has occurred over the past several decades, with more tools providing greater spatial and …

Interpretation Of Hydrogeologic Data To Support Groundwater Management, Bazile Groundwater Management Area, Northeast Nebraska, 2019—A Case Demonstration Of The Nebraska Geocloud, Christopher M. Hobza, Gregory V. Steele

United States Geological Survey: Publications

Nitrate, age tracer, and continuous groundwater-level data were interpreted in conjunction with airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey data to understand the movement of nitrate within the Bazile Groundwater Management Area (BGMA) in northeastern Nebraska. Previously published age tracer data and nitrate data indicated vertical stratification of groundwater quality. Younger groundwater sampled within shallow parts of the aquifer had higher concentrations of nitrate, with 70 percent exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter. In contrast, groundwater sampled from deeper parts of the aquifer indicated that nitrate concentrations were less than 2 milligrams per liter and …

Impacts Of Environmental Conditions On Fleas In Black-Tailed Prairie Dog Burrows, Julia E. Poje, Tonie Rocke, Michael D. Samuel

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis and transmitted by fleas, occurs in prairie dogs of the western United States. Outbreaks can devastate prairie dog communities, often causing nearly 100% mortality. Three competent flea vectors, prairie dog specialists Oropsylla hirsuta and O. tuberculata, and generalist Pulex simulans, are found on prairie dogs and in their burrows. Fleas are affected by climate, which varies across the range of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), but these effects may be ameliorated somewhat due to the burrowing habits of prairie dogs. Our goal was to assess how temperature and precipitation …

Forest Drought Response Index (Fordri): A New Combined Model To Monitor Forest Drought In The Eastern United States, Tsegaye Tadesse, David Y. Hollinger, Yared A. Bayissa, Mark Svoboda, Brian Fuchs, Beichen Zhang, Getachew Demissie, Brian D. Wardlow, Gil Bohrer, Kenneth L. Clark, Ankur R. Desai, Lianhong Gu, Asko Noormets, Kimberly A. Novick, Andrew D. Richardson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring drought impacts in forest ecosystems is a complex process because forest ecosystems are composed of different species with heterogeneous structural compositions. Even though forest drought status is a key control on the carbon cycle, very few indices exist to monitor and predict forest drought stress. The Forest Drought Indicator (ForDRI) is a new monitoring tool developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to identify forest drought stress. ForDRI integrates 12 types of data, including satellite, climate, evaporative demand, ground water, and soil moisture, into a single hybrid index to estimate tree stress. The model uses Principal Component Analysis …

Seasonal Grassland Productivity Forecast For The U.S. Great Plains Using Grass-Cast, Melannie D. Hartman, William J. Parton, Justin D. Derner, Darin K. Schulte, William K. Smith, Dannele E. Peck, Ken A. Day, Stephen J. Del Grosso, Susan Lutz, Brian Fuchs, Maosi Chen, Wei Gao

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, …

Implementation Of An Occupancy-Based Monitoring Protocol For A Widespread And Cryptic Species, The New England Cottontail (Sylvilagus Transitionalis), Colin P. Shea, Mitchell J. Eaton, Darryl I. Mackenzie

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Context. Designing effective long-term monitoring strategies is essential for managing wildlife populations. Implementing a cost-effective, practical monitoring program is especially challenging for widespread but locally rare species. Early successional habitat preferred by the New England cottontail (NEC) has become increasingly rare and fragmented, resulting in substantial declines from their peak distribution in the mid-1900s. The introduction of a possible competitor species, the eastern cottontail (EC),may also have played a role. Uncertainty surrounding how these factors have contributed to NEC declines has complicated management and necessitated development of an appropriate monitoring framework to understand possible drivers of distribution and dynamics.

Aims. …

Calibrating Human Attention As Indicator: Monitoring #Drought In The Twittersphere, Kelly Smith, Andrew Tyre, Zhenghong Tang, Michael Hayes, Adnan Akyuz

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

State climatologists and other expert drought observers have speculated about the value of monitoring Twitter for #drought and related hashtags. This study statistically examines the relationships between the rate of tweeting using #drought and related hashtags, within states, accounting for drought status and news coverage of drought. We collected and geolocated tweets, 2017–18, and used regression analysis and a diversity statistic to explain expected and identify unexpected volumes of tweets. This provides a quantifiable means to detect state-weeks with a volume of tweets that exceeds the upper limit of the prediction interval. To filter out instances where a high volume …

Droughtscape, Fall 2020, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Fall 2020

Repetitive Sampling And Control Threshold Improve 16s Rrna Gene Sequencing Results From Produced Waters Associated With Hydraulically Fractured Shale, Jenna L. Shelton, Elliott P. Barnhart, Leslie Ruppert, Aaron M. Jubb, Madalyn S. Blondes, Christina A. Devera

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Sequencing microbial DNA from deep subsurface environments is complicated by a number of issues ranging from contamination to non-reproducible results. Many samples obtained from these environments – which are of great interest due to the potential to stimulate microbial methane generation – contain low biomass. Therefore, samples from these environments are difficult to study as sequencing results can be easily impacted by contamination. In this case, the low amount of sample biomass may be effectively swamped by the contaminating DNA and generate misleading results. Additionally, performing field work in these environments can be difficult, as researchers generally have limited access …

Evaluating Airsoft Electric Guns For Control Of Invasive Brown Treesnakes, Adam J. Knox, Björn Lardner, Amy Yackel Adams, Robert N. Reed

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Firearms are often used in lethal control of invasive vertebrates, but safety and regulatory aspects limit the circumstances under which they can be used. During August 2016 at the Brown Treesnake Project laboratory on Guam, we evaluated hobby‐grade Airsoft Electric Guns (AEGs; a lower powered, less‐hazardous, and less‐regulated alternative to firearms) for capture and control of small animals, with specific emphasis on invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis). Tests of AEGs differing in power with ammunition (plastic pellets) masses ranging from 0.20 to 0.39 g, fired at gelatin blocks from distances of 4, 8, and 12 m, showed that …

Using Climate To Explain And Predict West Nile Virus Risk In Nebraska, Kelly Helm Smith, Andrew J. Tyre, Jeff Hamik, Michael J. Hayes, Yuzhen Zhou, Li Dai

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

We used monthly precipitation and temperature data to give early warning of years with higher West Nile Virus (WNV) risk in Nebraska. We used generalized additive models with a negative binomial distribution and smoothing curves to identify combinations of extremes and timing that had the most influence, experimenting with all combinations of temperature and drought data, lagged by 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months. We fit models on data from 2002 through 2011, used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best‐fitting model, and used 2012 as out‐of‐sample data for prediction, and repeated this process for each successive year, …