Other Earth Sciences Commons^™

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Changes In Arctic Climate And Central U.S. Weather Patterns Is There A Link?, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly C. Morrow, Martha Shulski

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture, decreased corn yields, increasing extreme precipitation events—these are some of the weather effects currently observed in the central United States that might well have their origin in the rapidly warming Arctic. These and other implications of Arctic warming were among the topics discussed at a fall 2015 workshop, Implications of a Changing Arctic on Water Resources and Agriculture in the Central U.S (Wilhite and Morrow 2016).

The United States assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council in April 2015, making the workshop topic timely. Given the importance of the Midwest and Great Plains region as a …

Evaluation Of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates And Application To Monitor Meteorological Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew B. Demisse, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Ethiopia that significantly impacts the socioeconomic sector and various components of the environment. The overarching goal of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought using a satellite-derived rainfall product for the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). The satellite rainfall product used in this study was selected through evaluation of five high-resolution products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Africa Rainfall Estimate …

Predicting Post-Fire Change In West Virginia, Usa From Remotely-Sensed Data, Michael Strager P. Strager, Melissa Thomas-Van Gundy, Aaron E. Maxwell

Journal of Geospatial Applications in Natural Resources

Prescribed burning is used in West Virginia, USA to return the important disturbance process of fire to oak and oak-pine forests. Species composition and structure are often the main goals for re-establishing fire with less emphasis on fuel reduction or reducing catastrophic wildfire. In planning prescribed fires land managers could benefit from the ability to predict mortality to overstory trees. In this study, wildfires and prescribed fires in West Virginia were examined to determine if specific landscape and terrain characteristics were associated with patches of high/moderate post-fire change. Using the ensemble machine learning approach of Random Forest, we determined that …

Managing Drought Risk In A Changing Climate, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is an increasing concern worldwide regarding the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices that are based largely on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only treat the symptoms (impacts) of drought rather than the underlying causes of the vulnerabilities associated with impacts. More effective drought management requires a shift in the paradigm from drought response to a drought risk management approach.

Using Climate Information For Drought Planning, Taryn Finnessey, Michael Hayes, Jeff Lukas, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historically, drought has been responded to rather than prepared for, yet studies have illustrated that proactive investment in drought risk management reduces impacts and overall response costs. One key element of preparedness is the use of sufficient climate information for monitoring, forecasting, and tracking long-term trends. In the face of a changing climate and increasing variability, these types of data are even more critical for planning and overall resiliency. The systematic use of these data to inform the drought planning component of drought risk management is a relatively recent development. Actionable science has direct applicability for planning and decision-making, and …

Droughtscape, Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC welcome two to team

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer

Drought management framework for Africa approved

MENA region update

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience

Tournament tackles hazards

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions

Dry Horizons launches

Drought In A Human-Modified World: Reframing Drought Definitions, Understanding, And Analysis Approaches, Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark4, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark D. Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Henny A. J. Van Lanen

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes.Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and …

Drougthscape, Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC adds two employees

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability

Create a custom DIR view

Drought center co-leads MENA region project

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires

Drought Forecasting Isn't Just About Water- To Get Smart We Need Health And Financial Data Too, Neville Crossman, Ian Overton, Jamie Hannaford, Kerstin Stahl, Kevin Collins, Mark D. Svoboda, Mike Acreman, Nicole Wall

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Millennium Drought taught Australians many lessons about living under extremely dry conditions – not just about how to conserve water, but also about human suffering.

In a drought, farmers find it more difficult to make an income, leading to mental health problems and raising the rate of male suicides. In the city, the impact is felt through water restrictions and more expensive infrastructure.

With very dry conditions returning to Tasmania, central Queensland and western Victoria, are we better prepared for the next big drought?

This is an issue not just for Australia, but across the world, from California, to …

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Identifying The Relationships Of Climate And Physiological Responses Of A Beech Forest Using The Standardised Recipitation Index: A Case Study For Slovakia, Jaroslav Vido, Katarína Střelcová, Paulína Nalevanková, Adriana Leštianska, Radoslav Kandrík, Alena Pástorová, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The paper presents relationship between the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and physiological responses of individual trees in a beech stand using an example of an experimental plot in Bienska valley (Zvolen, Slovakia). SPI is a widely used tool for monitoring both short-term and long-term droughts, and for the assessments of drought impacts on agriculture. Due to the complex ecosystem bonds, monitoring of drought in forests often requires a sophisticated technological approach. The aim of the paper was to correlate the SPI on the physiological responses of trees that were recorded during the performed physiological research (sap flow, and stem circumference …

Spatial Analysis Of Forest Crimes In Mark Twain National Forest, Missouri, Karun Pandit, Eddie Bevilacqua, Giorgos Mountrakis, Robert W. Malmsheimer

Journal of Geospatial Applications in Natural Resources

Forest crime mitigation has been identified as a challenging issue in forest management in the United States. Knowledge of the spatial pattern of forest crimes would help in wisely allocating limited enforcement resources to curb forest crimes. This study explores the spatial pattern of three different types of forest crimes: fire crime, illegal timber logging crime, and occupancy use crime in the Salem-Patosi Ranger District of Mark Twain National Forest. Univariate and bivariate Ripley’s K-functions were applied to explore the spatial patterns in crime events, like clustering and attraction among forest crime types. Results reveal significant clustering for each forest …

Comparison Of Terrain Indices And Landform Classification Procedures In Low-Relief Agricultural Fields, Derek A. Evans, Karl W. J. Williard, Jon E. Schoonover

Journal of Geospatial Applications in Natural Resources

Landforms control the spatial distribution of numerous factors associated with agronomy and water quality. Although curvature and slope are the fundamental surface derivatives used in landform classification procedures, methodologies for landform classifications have been performed with other terrain indices including the topographic position index (TPI) and the convergence index (CI). The objectives of this study are to compare plan curvature, the convergence index, profile curvature, and the topographic position index at various scales to determine which better identifies the spatial variability of soil phosphorus (P) within three low relief agricultural fields in central Illinois and to compare how two methods …

Discordant Data And Interpretation Of Results From Wildlife Habitat Models, Anita T. Morzillo, Michael G. Wing, Justin Long

Journal of Geospatial Applications in Natural Resources

Wildlife habitat management is an important part of natural resource management. As a result, there are a large number of models and tools for wildlife habitat assessment. A consequence of the many assessment tools is inconsistency when comparing results between tools, which may lead to potential confusion management decisions. Our objective was to compare results from two wildlife habitat models – one being relatively coarse (HUC5) scale and not spatially dynamic and the other being finer scale spatial data based on a 30 m spatial resolution –for habitat assessment of three species across the West Cascades of Oregon: Northern spotted …

Propagation Of Drought: From Meteorological Drought To Agricultural And Hydrological Drought, Wen Wang, Maurits W. Ertsen, Mark D. Svoboda, Mohsin Hafeez

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a hazard that occurs everywhere in the world (both in dry and in wet areas). Despite the controversy regarding drought changes in the last decades [1–3], increases in drought intensity are clearly identified in some areas [4] and it is believed that although increased heating from global warming may not directly cause droughts, it is expected that when droughts occur, they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense [5].

Throughout its history, China has frequently suffered from drought disasters due to its monsoon climate and was regularly hit hard by droughts over the last decades. …

Stakeholder Coinquiries On Drought Impacts, Monitoring And Early Warning Systems, Kevin Collins, Jamie Hannaford, Mark D. Svoboda, Cody L. Knutson, Nicole A. Wall, Tonya K. Bernadt, Neville Crossman, Ian Overton, Mike Acreman, Sophie Bachmair, Kerstin Stahl

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The goal of the DrIVER (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research) research project is to understand the links between natural (hydro-meteorological) drought and ecological response and socio-economic impacts to aid in developing enhanced drought early warning systems (DEWS). Three stakeholder workshops were convened in the USA, UK and Australia. The USA water supply case study engaged 27 community water suppliers and state, federal and private advisors in the Neuse and Cape Fear River basins in North Carolina. The UK workshop involved 34 national and regional stakeholders across the water supply, environmental regulation, agriculture, energy and health sectors. …

Handbook Of Drought Indicators And Indices, Mark Svoboda, Brian Fuchs, Integrated Drought Management Programme (Idmp)

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The purpose of this handbook is to cover some of the most commonly used drought indicators/indices that are being applied across drought-prone regions, with the goal of advancing monitoring, early warning and information delivery systems in support of risk-based drought management policies and preparedness plans. These concepts and indicators/indices are outlined below in what is considered to be a living document that will evolve and integrate new indicators and indices as they come to light and are applied in the future. The handbook is aimed at those who want to generate indicators and indices themselves, as well as for those …

From Grassroots To National Alliance: The Emerging Trajectory For Landowner Prescribed Burn Associations, John R. Weir, Dirac L. Twidwell, Carissa L. Wonkka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

• Due to woody plant encroachment and seeing the need for fire on their lands, private landowners throughout the southern Great Plains have started forming prescribed burn associations (PBA) to assist each other with conducting prescribed fires. • Members of PBAs work together by pooling equipment and other resources, organizing training opportunities, and assisting with prescribed burns on each other’s properties, while teaching upcoming generations and inexperienced members the value of fire in grassland conservation and how to safely use it. • There are over 50 PBAs working in the southern Great Plains. As the number of PBAs has grown …

Rangeland Responses To Predicted Increases In Drought Extremity, David D. Breshears, Alan K. Knapp, Darin J. Law, Melinda D. Smith, Dirac L. Twidwell, Carissa L. Wonkka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rangeland managers actively focus on the potential to induce a shift in a site to an alternative state, but predicted changes in climate, particularly the likelihood of more extreme drought, necessitate reevaluating risks for alternative states. • Rangelands will differ in their susceptibility to undergo state changes due to climate change in general and for droughts of the future, in particular, which may be hotter. • Trees, shrubs, and grasses are expected to differ in their sensitivity to drought, with trees likely being most sensitive; this affects the likelihood for state changes in grasslands, shrublands, woodlands, and savannas. • Considering …

Open Polar Server (Ops)—An Open Source Infrastructure For The Cryosphere Community, Weibo Liu, Kyle Purdon, Trey Stafford, John Paden, Xingong Li

Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies: Publications

The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas has collected approximately 1000 terabytes (TB) of radar depth sounding data over the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets since 1993 in an effort to map the thickness of the ice sheets and ultimately understand the impacts of climate change and sea level rise. In addition to data collection, the storage, management, and public distribution of the dataset are also primary roles of the CReSIS. The Open Polar Server (OPS) project developed a free and open source infrastructure to store, manage, analyze, and distribute the data collected …

Drought And Health In The Context Of Public Engagement, Nicole Wall, Michael Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts have profoundly affected societies around the world from the earliest beginnings. A recent estimate from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) claims that more than 1 billion people have been affected by drought during the twenty-year period between 1994 and 2013. Because of the characteristics of drought, drought impacts are often difficult to identify and quantify, and this is especially true with public health-oriented drought consequences, including those resulting from low water quantities, poor water quality, mental health and stress, dust and windblown agents, and wildlife intrusion. However, when officials emphasize adopting a proactive risk …

Assessing Drought Vulnerability Using A Socioecological Framework, Joel R. Brown, Doug Kluck, Chad Mcnutt, Michael J. Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a persistent problem on rangelands and adjusting management to respond appropriately is critical to both preserving natural resources and to maintaining financial viability. • We explore the value of using a structured assessment approach to determining both social and ecological vulnerability. • This approach allows for the identification of vulnerable ecosystems and business operations at regional and local scales as a basis for developing effective policies and programs.

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

Assessing The Evolution Of Soil Moisture And Vegetation Conditions During The 2012 United States Flash Drought, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, Mark D. Svoboda, David K. Johnson, Richard Mueller, Tsegaye Tadesse, Brian D. Wardlow, Jesslyn Brown

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study examines the evolution of several model-based and satellite-derived drought metrics sensitive to soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the extreme flash drought event that impacted major agricultural areas across the central U.S. during 2012. Standardized anomalies from the remote sensing based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and soil moisture anomalies from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) are compared to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), surface meteorological conditions, and crop and soil moisture data compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Overall, the results show that rapid decreases in …

The Implications Of Climate Change For Nebraska: Summary Report Of Sector-Based Roundtable Discussions, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly Morrow

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This report is the result of the work of many individuals that contributed to the success of the series of eight sector-based roundtable events that were held in September and October of 2015. First and foremost, we would like to thank the organizers and the organizations they represent for their leadership in bringing together a diverse set of key stakeholders to discuss the implications of climate change on their sector. It was such a pleasure to work with such a dedicated group of individuals. Second, we would like to thank the more than 350 people who participated in these discussions …

New Tools For Assessing Drought Conditions For Rangeland Management, Cody Knutson, Brian Fuchs

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historical drought assessment and ongoingmonitoring is essential for understanding past drought occurrence, the relationships between past drought and its impacts, and for triggering action during current drought events. • A variety of new products have recently been developed to better monitor drought conditions and assess past occurrences at the local scale. • A growing number of resources are available to assist rangeland managers to develop a monitoring system and incorporate it into a drought management plan.

Linking Seasonal Predictions To Decision-Making And Disaster Management In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Tonya Haigh, Nicole Wall, Andualem Shiferaw, Ben Zaitchik, Shimelis Beyene, Getachew Berhan, Jacob Petr

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Seventy-six participants, including experts from seven countries from the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and project coinvestigators from the United States, met to discuss experimental seasonal prediction models and products for the GHA, to engage decision-makers and users in the assessment of hydroclimatic information requirements, and to use feedback to build a framework to support decision-making and disaster management. In pre- and postworkshop surveys, workshop participants were asked how the utility of forecasts to decision-makers might be improved. Their recommendations are presented

Droughtscape, Fall 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column.

NDMC 20th anniversary 2

Employment opportunity

Third quarter 2015 climate summary

Third quarter 2015 impacts summary

Workshop in Ethiopia

San Antonio multi-hazard tournament

Healthy soil is drought buffer

U2U Award

Cost-benefit analysis for utilities managing drought

NDMC helps with rural poll questions on climate

Introducing our post-docs

South Korean visitors