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Droughtscape, Fall 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Washington Workshops Scheduled for November

Look for Warm West, Rainy Gulf, Easing Drought

New Drought Monitor Authors Profiled

Drought Impact Awareness Growing: Weather Forecast Offices, Geographers Highlight Issue

NDMC Takes on New Projects

Hundreds+ See NDMC at Ag Trade Show

NDMC Welcomes New Employees

New Book Chapter Reviewing Mojave Desert Revegetation Practices Is Forthcoming, Scott R. Abella

Public Policy and Leadership Faculty Research

I was invited to write a chapter for a forthcoming book on Arid Environments to be published by Nova Science Publishers. This book is anticipated to appear in late 2008 or early 2009, and we will be able to provide additional details about the entire book at that time. I co-authored our chapter on revegetation with Alice Newton, Vegetation Manager at Lake Mead National Recreation Area. We systematically reviewed 23 published studies of planting or seeding native species in the Mojave Desert.

Droughtscape, Summer 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

VegDRI Expands West

Spring Rains Ease Drought But CA Still Dry

Scholar Donates Books

NDMC Welcomes Employees Bathke, Nothwehr

Latest Workshop Info Up

State Lawmakers to Focus on Drought Planning

Decadal Variation -- Clues to Droughts and Floods?

Droughtscape, Spring 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

San Angelo, April 24

Winter Sees Little Change in U.S. Drought

News Stories Reveal Array of Mitigation Strategies

NIDIS Wants You!

Sea Surface Temperatures Can Help Predict Drought

About DroughtScape

Recent Travels

California Drought, An Update April 2008, Baryohay Davidoff, Fawzi Karajeh, Dean Reynolds, Eric Senter, John Woodling

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. RECENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS

Introduction....................................................... 1

Water Year 2007 .................................................. 1

Drought in the Colorado River Basin ..................................................... 5

Drought and Dry Conditions in the Early 2000s .................................... 7

The 2001 Klamath Basin Drought Emergency ............................... 11

CHAPTER 2. PROGRAMMATIC AND INSTITUTIONAL UPDATES

The San Francisco Bay-Sacramento/San Joaquin River Delta.................................................................. 15

The Colorado River .................................................................... 16

State Financial Assistance to Local Agencies.................................... 17

Urban Water Management Planning ................................................... 20

Water Transfers .............................................................................. 20

Small Water Systems and Drought Preparedness ................................. 21

Introgression And Dispersal Among Spotted Owl (Strix Occidentalis) Subspecies, W. Chris Funk, Eric D. Forsman, Thomas D. Mullins, Susan M. Haig

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Population genetics plays an increasingly important role in the conservation and management of declining species, particularly for defining taxonomic units. Subspecies are recognized by several conservation organizations and countries and receive legal protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). Two subspecies of spotted owls, northern (Strix occidentalis caurina) and Mexican (S. o. lucida) spotted owls, are ESA-listed as threatened, but the California (S. o. occidentalis) spotted owl is not listed. Thus, determining the boundaries of these subspecies is critical for effective enforcement of the ESA. We tested the validity of previously recognized spotted …

Development And Evaluation Of Geochemical Methods For The Sourcing Of Archaeological Maize, L.V. Benson, H. E. Taylor, K.A. Peterson, B.D. Shattuck, C.A. Ramotnik, J.R. Stein

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Strontium (Sr)-isotope values on bone from deer mice pairs from 12 field sites in the Chaco Canyon area, New Mexico, were compared with isotope values of synthetic soil waters from the same fields. The data indicate that mice obtain Sr from near-surface sources and that soil samples collected at depths ranging from 25 to 95 cm contain Sr that is more accessible to the deep roots of maize; thus, synthetic soil solutions provide better data for the sourcing of archaeological maize. However, the Sr-isotope composition of mice may be more valuable in sourcing archaeological remains of animals such as rabbit, …

Tools And Technology Article: Estimation And Correction Of Visibility Bias In Aerial Surveys Of Wintering Ducks, Aaron T. Pearse, Patrick D. Gerard, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Richard M. Kaminski, Kenneth J. Reinecke

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wedand cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1-100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias …

Tools And Technology Article: Evaluation Of An Aerial Survey To Estimate Abundance Of Wintering Ducks In Mississippi, Aaron T. Pearse, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Richard M. Kaminski, Kenneth J. Reinecke

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (/), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (N) for 14 …

Relations Between And Among Contaminant Concentrations And Biomarkers In Black Bass (Micropterus Spp.) And Common Carp (Cyprinus Carpio) From Large U.S. Rivers, 1995–2004, Jo Ellen Hinck, Christopher J. Schmitt, Mark R. Ellersieck, Donald E. Tillitt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Environmental contaminant and biomarker monitoring data from major U.S. river basins were summarized for black bass (Micropterus spp.) and common carp (Cyprinus carpio) sampled over a nine year period. Cumulative frequency distributions revealed taxon differences for many organochlorine residue concentrations, elemental contaminant concentrations, and biomarkers, but few gender differences were evident for chemical concentrations. Concentrations of dacthal, pentachloroanisole, p,p'-DDE, endosulfan sulfate, barium, cadmium, copper, manganese, lead, selenium, vanadium, and zinc were greater in carp than bass, but concentrations of mercury and magnesium were greater in bass. Gender differences were evident in bass for mercury and in carp …

Impact Of Drought On Prehistoric Western Native Americans, Larry Benson

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Some droughts that occurred during the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately AD 800-1300) appear to have been catalysts for major changes in settlement patterns of two western Native American groups - the Lovelock culture in Nevada’s Great Basin and the Anasazi people of the Four Corners area. Both groups’ subsistence bases were impacted by diminished water supplies associated with prolonged drought, leading to the dispersal of these Native Americans from their former territories.

Tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions by Cook et al. (2004) indicate that over 50% of the western U.S. experienced drought conditions during the middle-12th and …

Grenetic Evidence Of Intercontinental Movement Of Avian Influenza In A Migratory Bird: The Northern Pintail (Anas Acuta), Anson V. Koehler, John M. Pearce, Paul L. Flint, J. Christian Franson, Hon S. Ip

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The role of migratory birds in the movement of the highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza H5N1 remains a subject of debate. Testing hypotheses regarding intercontinental movement of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses will help evaluate the potential that wild birds could carry Asian-origin strains of HP avian influenza to North America during migration. Previous North American assessments of LPAI genetic variation have found few Asian reassortment events. Here, we present results from whole-genome analyses of LPAI isolates collected in Alaska from the northern pintail (Anas acuta), a species that migrates between North America and Asia. Phylogenetic analyses …

Droughtscape, Winter 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Now Up & On-Line:

Winter 2008 Outlook and Oct.-Dec. ’07 Summary

NDMC Experts Serve as Resource for Media

Drought Hits Ag and Urban Interests in 2007

Climatological Summary of Drought in 2007

NDMC Welcomes Data Miner Bo Zhang

New Grant Awards

Apparent Tolerance Of Turkey Vultures (Cathartes Aura) To The Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Diclofenac, Barnett A. Rattner, Maria A. Whitehead, Grace Gasper, Carol U. Meteyer, William A. Link, Mark A. Taggart, Andrew A. Meharg, Oliver H. Pattee, Deborah J. Pain

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac is extremely toxic to Old World Gyps vultures (median lethal dose ~0.1–0.2 mg/kg), evoking visceral gout, renal necrosis, and mortality within a few days of exposure. Unintentional secondary poisoning of vultures that fed upon carcasses of diclofenac-treated livestock decimated populations in the Indian subcontinent. Because of the widespread use of diclofenac and other cyclooxygenase-2 inhibiting drugs, a toxicological study was undertaken in turkey vultures (Cathartes aura) as an initial step in examining sensitivity of New World scavenging birds. Two trials were conducted entailing oral gavage of diclofenac at doses ranging from 0.08 to …

Range-Wide Phylogeographic Analysis Of The Spotted Frog Complex (Rana Luteiventris And Rana Pretiosa) In Northwestern North America, W. Chris Funk, Christopher A. Pearl, Hope M. Draheim, Michael J. Adams, Thomas D. Mullins, Susan M. Haig

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The dynamic geological and climatic history of northwestern North America has made it a focal region for phylogeography. We conducted a range-wide phylogeographic analysis of the spotted frog complex (Rana luteiventris and Rana pretiosa) across its range in northwestern North America to understand its evolutionary history and the distribution of clades to inform conservation of R. pretiosa and Great Basin R. luteiventris, candidates for listing under the US Endangered Species Act. Mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a segment of the cytochrome b gene were obtained from 308 R. luteiventris and R. pretiosa from 96 sites. Phylogenetic analysis …

Management And Conservation Note: Conserving Waste Rice For Wintering Waterfowl In The Mississippi Alluvial Valley, Jennifer P. Kross, Richard M. Kaminski, Aaron T. Pearse

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV), USA, is an internationally important migration and wintering region for North American waterfowl (Reinecke et al. 1989). The Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture (LMVJV) assumes food availability is the primary factor influencing carrying capacity of wintering waterfowl in this region (Reinecke and Loesch 1996). Because much of the MAV was converted from a seasonally flooded bottomland-hardwood ecosystem to a landscape dominated by agriculture, the LMVJV has incorporated estimates of the abundance of agricultural seeds such as rice into habitat conservation plans (Reinecke et al. 1988, Fredrickson et al. 2005). Biologists designed these plans to provide …

Persistent Near-Bottom Aggregations Of Mesopelagic Animals Along The North Carolina And Virginia Continental Slopes, John V. Gartner Jr., Kenneth J. Sulak, Steve W. Ross, Ann Marie Necaise

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Submersible observations during four missions over the North Carolina and Virginia continental slopes (184–900 m) documented the occurrence of large aggregations of mesopelagic Wshes and macronektonic invertebrates near or on the bottom. Aggregated mesopelagics formed a layer up to tens of meters deep positioned from a few centimeters to 20 m, usually <10 >m, above the substrate. Aggregations were numerically dominated by microvores, notably the myctophid Wsh Ceratoscopelus maderensis and the penaeid shrimp Sergestes arcticus. Consistently present but in relatively lower numbers, were mesopelagic predators, including the paralepidids Notolepis rissoi and Lestidium atlanticum, the eel Nemichthys scolopaceus, the …

Demersal Fishes Associated With Lophelia Pertusa Coral And Hard-Substrate Biotopes On The Continental Slope, Northern Gulf Of Mexico, Kenneth J. Sulak, R. Allen Brooks, Kirsten E. Luke, April D. Norem, Michael Randall, Andrew J. Quaid, George E. Yeargin, Jana M. Miller, William M. Harden, John H. Caruso, Steve W. Ross

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The demersal fish fauna of Lophelia pertusa (Linnaeus, 1758) coral reefs and associated hard-bottom biotopes was investigated at two depth horizons in the northern Gulf of Mexico using a manned submersible and remote sampling. The Viosca Knoll fauna consisted of at least 53 demersal fish species, 37 of which were documented by submersible video. On the 325 m horizon, dominant taxa determined from frame-by-frame video analysis included Stromateidae, Serranidae, Trachichthyidae, Congridae, Scorpaenidae, and Gadiformes. On the 500 m horizon, large mobile visual macrocarnivores of families Stromateidae and Serranidae dropped out, while a zeiform microcarnivore assumed importance on reef “Thicket” biotope, …

Droughtscape, Fall 2007, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Fall 2007 Outlook

Diverse Impacts Reported in Summer of 2007

Decadal Climate Cycles Hold Predictive Potential

Drought Experts Take Roadmap to Congress

NDMC Research Updates

Droughtscape, Summer 2007, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Summer 07 Outlook

Hayes Named Director of NDMC

NDMC & UN Plan for Drought

Book Review: The Worst Hard Time

Drought Tools Workshops Underway

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum October 10-11, 2007 Portland, Oregon

Droughtscape, Spring 2007, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

2007 Spring Drought Outlook & Winter Summary

VegDRI Expands to 15 States, Refines Views

DroughtScape

State Spotlight: Utah

International Panel Foresees Drought as Part of Climate Change

NIDIS Portal Advancing

Downstream Pathway Activation In Cultured Hepatocytes Following Treatment With Francisella Tularensis, Nicole Wakefield

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

Francisella tularensis, the intracellular pathogen that causes tularemia, was investigated to determine how it infects and replicates within mammalian hepatocytes. To date, it has been shown that hepatocytes can be infected by F. tularensis and that this causes considerable change in the protein phosphorylation state of several vital signaling molecules within the host cell. Protein kinase pathways can be mapped as signatures of infection. Hepatocytes tend to be susceptible to infection by F. tularensis, thus stimulating internal signaling. The Francisella strains used were selected with the goal of producing a model that can be used to elucidate the cell signaling …

Frequency Of Sublethal Injury In A Deepwater Ophiuroid, Ophiacantha Bidentata, An Important Component Of Western Atlantic Lophelia Reef Communities, R. Allen Brooks, Martha S. Nizinski, Steve W. Ross, Kenneth J. Sulak

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The occurrence and relative abundance of tissue (arm) regeneration in the ophiuroid, Ophiacantha bidentata (Retzius), was examined in individuals collected primarily among colonies of the deep-water coral Lophelia pertusa off the southeastern United States. Seven deep-water coral sites (384–756 m), located between Cape Lookout, NC, and Cape Canaveral, FL, were sampled in June 2004 using a manned submersible. The presence of regenerative tissue was evaluated by visual inspection of each individual ophiuroid, and the proportion of regenerating arms per individual was examined relative to size of individual, geographic location, and depth of collection. Ophiacantha bidentata, the dominant brittle star collected, …

Loess Deposits, Origins And Properties, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Loess is an eolian (windblown) sediment that is an important archive of Quaternary climate changes. It may provide one of the most complete terrestrial records of interglacial–glacial cycles. Loess is unusual as a record of Quaternary climate change because it is one of the few sediments that is deposited directly from the atmosphere. Thus, it is a geologic deposit that contains a record of atmospheric circulation and can be used to reconstruct synoptic-scale paleoclimatology. Loess is also unusual in that it can be dated directly using ‘trapped electron’ or luminescence methods that require only the sediment itself. Commonly, loess deposits …

Adaptive Data-Driven Models For Estimating Carbon Fluxes In The Northern Great Plains, Bruce K. Wylie, Eugene A. Fosnight, Tagir G. Gilmanov, Albert B. Frank, Jack A. Morgan, Marshall R. Haferkamp, Tilden P. Meyers

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Rangeland carbon fluxes are highly variable in both space and time. Given the expansive areas of rangelands, how rangelands respond to climatic variation, management, and soil potential is important to understanding carbon dynamics. Rangeland carbon fluxes associated with Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) were measured from multiple year data sets at five flux tower locations in the Northern Great Plains. These flux tower measurements were combined with 1-km² spatial data sets of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, seasonal NDVI metrics, and soil characteristics. Flux tower measurements were used to train and select variables for …

Droughtscape, Winter 2007, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

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Policy Update: NIDIS is Law. What’s Next?

What Would You Like to See?

TX, OK, Plains, Southwest Hardest Hit in 2006

Climatologically Speaking, How Bad Was It?

State Spotlight: Arizona

Drought Decision-Support Tools Evolving

Possible Impacts Of Early-11th-, Middle-12th-, And Late-13th-Century Droughts On Western Native Americans And The Mississippian Cahokians, Larry V. Benson, Michael S. Berry, Edward A. Jolie, Jerry D. Spangler, David W. Stahle, Eugene M. Hattori

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

One or more of three intense and persistent droughts impacted some Native American cultures in the early-11th, middle-12th and late- 13th centuries, including the Anasazi, Fremont, Lovelock, and Mississippian (Cahokian) prehistorical cultures. Tree-ring-based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature indicate that warm drought periods occurred between AD 990 and 1060, AD 1135 and 1170, and AD 1276 and 1297. These droughts occurred during minima in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and may have been associated with positive values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Each of the Native American cultures was supported, to a greater or lesser degree, by precipitation-dependent resources. Both the …

Hydrologic Connectivity And The Contribution Of Stream Headwaters To Ecological Integrity At Regional Scales1, Mary C. Freeman, Catherine M. Pringle, C. Rhett Jackson

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water-mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two-thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large-scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter …

Butterfly Responses To Prairie Restoration Through Fire And Grazing, Jennifer A. Vogel, Diane M. Debinski, Rolf R. Koford, James R. Miller

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The development of land for modern agriculture has resulted in losses of native prairie habitat. The small, isolated patches of prairie habitat that remain are threatened by fire suppression, overgrazing, and invasion by non-native species. We evaluated the effects of three restoration practices (grazing only, burning only, and burning and grazing) on the vegetation characteristics and butterfly communities of remnant prairies. Total butterfly abundance was highest on prairies that were managed with burning and grazing and lowest on those that were only burned. Butterfly species richness did not differ among any of the restoration practices. Butterfly species diversity was highest …

Evaluation And Comparison Of Gross Primary Production Estimates For The Northern Great Plains Grasslands, Li Zhang, Bruce K. Wylie, Thomas Loveland, Eugene A. Fosnight, Larry L. Tieszen, Lei Ji, Tagir G. Gilmanov

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Two spatially-explicit estimates of gross primary production (GPP) are available for the Northern Great Plains. An empirical piecewise regression (PWR) GPP model was developed from flux tower measurements to map carbon flux across the region. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) GPP model is a process-based model that uses flux tower data to calibrate its parameters. Verification and comparison of the regional PWR GPP and the global MODIS GPP are important for the modeling of grassland carbon flux. This study compared GPP estimates from PWR and MODIS models with five towers in the grasslands. Among them, PWR GPP and MODIS …