Other Earth Sciences Commons^™

Droughtscape, Fall 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought worsens in northern Great Plains

Drought takes toll on agriculture, livestock

Study examines ag advisors’ views on climate change

New drought definition could lead to better preparation

McCook takes big steps toward drought readiness

Group hopes to map drought planning process for Korea

South African researcher working to forecast drought

Cultivating drought preparedness in South Africa

Veress M., 2016. Covered Karsts, Reza Khoshraftar

International Journal of Speleology

No abstract provided.

Observed Changes In Climate And Streamflow In The Upper Rio Grande Basin, Shaleene Chavarria

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting the streamflow volume derived from snow accumulation in ways consistent with climate model-based projections of 21st century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the upper Rio Grande (URG) near its headwaters in southern Colorado are assessed for water years 1958-2015. Trends in discharge are examined together with variations in snow water equivalent and surface climate variables. Results indicate that temperatures in the basin have increased significantly primarily in the winter and spring seasons, April 1 snow …

Droughtscape, Summer 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought policy write shops conclude in Caribbean

Drought encroaches on Northern Plains in second quarter

Impact tool racks up submissions in second quarter

Maps on new website highlight drought effects on ag industry

Centers release new flash drought tool: QuickDRI

NDMC contributes to EU report on disaster risk management

Groups earn Climate Adaptation award for work with tribes

NDMC, ICPAC director talk collaboration on drought in Greater Horn of Africa

Up next in MENA: Drought vulnerability assessments

Spatiotemporal Analyses Of Recycled Water Production, Jana E. Archer

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Increased demands on water supplies caused by population expansion, saltwater intrusion, and drought have led to water shortages which may be addressed by use of recycled water as recycled water products. Study I investigated recycled water production in Florida and California during 2009 to detect gaps in distribution and identify areas for expansion. Gaps were detected along the panhandle and Miami, Florida, as well as the northern and southwestern regions in California. Study II examined gaps in distribution, identified temporal change, and located areas for expansion for Florida in 2009 and 2015. Production increased in the northern and southern regions …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. …

A Multi-Proxy Stalagmite Reconstruction Of The Climate Of Southwestern North America From The Middle To Late Holocene, Christine Allen

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

The seasonal balance of moisture has a significant effect on natural ecosystems and culture in southwestern North America (SWNA), and it thus is necessary to understand the cause of this moisture variability in order to better predict the scope of potential future changes. Studies of modern SWNA climate indicate that most of the annual moisture at this site comes from monsoonal summer precipitation and a lesser amount of Pacific winter moisture. The climate of the Holocene is of particular interest for constraining natural variability of interglacial climates prior to any anthropogenic influence. An overall transition to a wetter Late Holocene …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Closing The Water Budget In An Experimental Urban Watershed: A Comparative Assessment Of Methods For Measuring Evapotranspiration, Leana M. Weissberg, Gaboury Benoit

Yale Day of Data

No abstract provided.

Toxicity Of Fluorescent Tracers And Their Degradation Byproducts, Philippe Gombert, Hugues Biaudet, René De Sèze, Pascal Pandard, Jean Carré

International Journal of Speleology

Tracer tests are frequently used to delineate catchment area of water supply springs in karstic zones. In the karstic chalk of Normandy, the main tracers used are fluorescent: uranine, sulforhodamine B, naphtionate, and Tinopal®. In this area, a statistical analysis shows that less than half of the injected tracers joins the monitored restitution points and enters the drinking water system where they undergo chlorination. Most of the injected tracers is absorbed in the rock matrix or is thrown out of the aquifer via karstic springs: then it can join superficial waters where it is degraded due to the sun and …

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Assessing Responses Of Betula Papyrifera (Paper Birch) To Climate Variability In A Remnant Population Along The Niobrara River In Nebraska Through Dendroecological And Remote Sensing Techniques, Evan Bumann

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Remnant populations of the boreal species Betula papyrifera, found along north-facing canyons and river banks of the Niobrara River Valley in north-central Nebraska, represent one of the southernmost distributions of the species in North America. Although, the species has persisted in the Great Plains after the Wisconsin Glaciation due to the local topography and microclimatic conditions, canopy dieback has been reported in recent years, which is believed to be attributed to temperature change. Therefore, the goals of this research are to: 1) use dendroecological techniques, or the study of tree rings to assess the responses B. papyrifera to intra- and …

Changes In Arctic Climate And Central U.S. Weather Patterns Is There A Link?, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly C. Morrow, Martha Shulski

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture, decreased corn yields, increasing extreme precipitation events—these are some of the weather effects currently observed in the central United States that might well have their origin in the rapidly warming Arctic. These and other implications of Arctic warming were among the topics discussed at a fall 2015 workshop, Implications of a Changing Arctic on Water Resources and Agriculture in the Central U.S (Wilhite and Morrow 2016).

The United States assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council in April 2015, making the workshop topic timely. Given the importance of the Midwest and Great Plains region as a …

Evaluation Of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates And Application To Monitor Meteorological Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew B. Demisse, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Ethiopia that significantly impacts the socioeconomic sector and various components of the environment. The overarching goal of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought using a satellite-derived rainfall product for the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). The satellite rainfall product used in this study was selected through evaluation of five high-resolution products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Africa Rainfall Estimate …

Characterization And Delineation Of Karst Geohazards Along Rm652 Using Electrical Resistivity Tomography, Culberson County, Texas, Adam F. Majzoub

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Delaware Basin of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico is the major western subdivision of the Permian Basin and a northern extension of the Chihuahuan Desert. The major evaporite unit within the Delaware Basin is the Castile Formation, which consists of gypsum/anhydrite and is highly susceptible to dissolution and karsting. Manifestations of karst within the Castile outcrop are abundant and include sinkholes, subsidence features and caves, both epigene and hypogene in origin.

Land reconnaissance surveys conducted during the summer of 2015 documented abundant karst landforms in close proximity to a major thoroughfare, RM 652, in Culberson County, Texas. 2D …

Managing Drought Risk In A Changing Climate, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is an increasing concern worldwide regarding the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices that are based largely on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only treat the symptoms (impacts) of drought rather than the underlying causes of the vulnerabilities associated with impacts. More effective drought management requires a shift in the paradigm from drought response to a drought risk management approach.

Using Climate Information For Drought Planning, Taryn Finnessey, Michael Hayes, Jeff Lukas, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historically, drought has been responded to rather than prepared for, yet studies have illustrated that proactive investment in drought risk management reduces impacts and overall response costs. One key element of preparedness is the use of sufficient climate information for monitoring, forecasting, and tracking long-term trends. In the face of a changing climate and increasing variability, these types of data are even more critical for planning and overall resiliency. The systematic use of these data to inform the drought planning component of drought risk management is a relatively recent development. Actionable science has direct applicability for planning and decision-making, and …

Droughtscape, Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC welcome two to team

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer

Drought management framework for Africa approved

MENA region update

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience

Tournament tackles hazards

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions

Dry Horizons launches

Birth And Evolution Of The Rio Grande Fluvial System In The Last 8 Ma:Progressive Downward Integration And Interplay Between Tectonics, Volcanism, Climate, And River Evolution, Marisa N. Repasch

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

The Rio Grande-Rio Chama (RG-RC) fluvial system has evolved dramatically over the last 8 Ma, undergoing channel migrations, drainage capture and integration events, volcanic damming, and carving and refilling of paleocanyons. Volcanism concurrent with the development of the river system provides a unique opportunity to apply multiple geochronometers to the study of its incision and drainage evolution. This paper reports 19 new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar basalt ages and 19 detrital mineral samples (zircon and sanidine) collected from RG-RC alluvium overlain by dated basalt flows in the context of a compilation of published ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar basalt ages. The …

Drought In A Human-Modified World: Reframing Drought Definitions, Understanding, And Analysis Approaches, Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark4, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark D. Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Henny A. J. Van Lanen

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes.Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and …

Quantifying Peat Carbon Accumulation In Alaska Using A Process-Based Biogeochemistry Model, Sirui Wang, Qianlai Zhuang, Zicheng Yu, Scott Bridgham, Jason K. Keller

Education Faculty Articles and Research

This study uses an integrated modeling framework that couples the dynamics of hydrology, soil thermal regime, and ecosystem carbon and nitrogen to quantify the long-term peat carbon accumulation in Alaska during the Holocene. Modeled hydrology, soil thermal regime, carbon pools and fluxes, and methane emissions are evaluated using observation data at several peatland sites in Minnesota, Alaska, and Canada. The model is then applied for a 10,000 year (15 ka to 5 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal years before present) simulation at four peatland sites. We find that model simulations match the observed carbon accumulation rates at fen sites …