Other Earth Sciences Commons^™

Smap Soil Moisture Change As An Indicator Of Drought Conditions, Rajasekaran Eswar, Narendra N. Das, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Ali Behrangi, John Swigart, Mark D. Svoboda, Dara Entekhabi, Simon Yueh, Bradley Doorn, Jared Entin

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is considered a key variable in drought analysis. The soil moisture dynamics given by the change in soil moisture between two time periods can provide information on the intensification or improvement of drought conditions. The aim of this work is to analyze how the soil moisture dynamics respond to changes in drought conditions over multiple time intervals. The change in soil moisture estimated from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite observations was compared with the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicated that the …

Predicting Spatial Patterns In Precipitation Isotope (Δ2h And Δ18o) Seasonality Using Sinusoidal Isoscapes, Scott T. Allen, James W. Kirchner, Gregory R. Goldsmith

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Understanding how precipitation isotopes vary spatially and temporally is important for tracer applications. We tested how well month‐to‐month variations in precipitation δ18O and δ2H were captured by sinusoidal cycles, and how well spatial variations in these seasonal cycles could be predicted, across Switzerland. Sine functions representing seasonal cycles in precipitation isotopes explained between 47% and 94% of the variance in monthly δ18O and δ2H values at each monitoring site. A significant sinusoidal cycle was also observed in line‐conditioned excess. We interpolated the amplitudes, phases, and offsets of these sine functions across the landscape, using multiple linear …

An Assessment Of Atmospheric And Meteorological Factors Regulating Red Sea Phytoplankton Growth, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed A. Qurban, Emmanouil Proestakis, Michael J. Garay, Olga V. Kalishnikova, Vassilis Amiridis, Antonis Gkikas, Eleni Marinou, Thomas Piechota, K. P. Manikandan

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study considers the various factors that regulate nutrients supply in the Red Sea. Multi-sensor observation and reanalysis datasets are used to examine the relationships among dust deposition, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed, as they may contribute to anomalous phytoplankton blooms, through time-series and correlation analyses. A positive correlation was found at 0–3 months lag between chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) anomalies and dust anomalies over the Red Sea regions. Dust deposition process was further examined with dust aerosols’ vertical distribution using satellite lidar data. Conversely, a negative correlation was found at 0–3 months lag between SST anomalies …

Downscaling Africa’S Drought Forecasts Through Integration Of Indigenous And Scientific Drought Forecasts Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Muthoni Masinde, Mwanjele Mwagha, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the wake of increased drought occurrences being witnessed in Sub-Saharan Africa, more localized and contextualized drought mitigation strategies are on the agendas of many researchers and policy makers in the region. The integration of indigenous knowledge on droughts with seasonal climate forecasts is one such strategy. The main challenge facing this integration, however, is the formal representation of highly-structured and holistic indigenous knowledge. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping can address this challenge. Indigenous knowledge on droughts from five communities was modeled and represented using fuzzy cognitive maps. Maps from one of these …

Validation Of New Satellite Rainfall Products Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Tesfaye Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Tufa Dinku

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison …

Droughtscape, Spring 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa

NDMC on a global playing field

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts

Svoboda named to United Nations advisory group

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara

Connecting locally for global change

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Comparison Of The Performance Of Six Drought Indices In Characterizing Historical Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Shreedhar Maskey, Tsegaye Tadesse, Schalk Jan Van Andel, Semu Moges, Ann Van Griensven, Dimitri Solomatine

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin is less-explored in terms of drought studies as compared to other parts of Ethiopia and lacks a basin-specific drought monitoring system. This study compares six drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), Aggregate Drought Index (ADI), and Standardized Runoff-discharge Index (SRI), and evaluates their performance with respect to identifying historic drought events in the UBN basin. The indices were calculated using monthly time series of observed precipitation, average temperature, river discharge, and modeled evapotranspiration and soil moisture from 1970 to 2010. …

Factors Influencing Farmers’ Adoption Of Best Management Practices: A Review And Synthesis, Tingting Liu, Randall J. F. Bruins, Matthew T. Heberling

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Best management practices (BMPs) for reducing agricultural non-point source pollution are widely available. However, agriculture remains a major global contributor to degradation of waters because farmers often do not adopt BMPs. To improve water quality, it is necessary to understand the factors that influence BMP adoption by farmers. We review the findings of BMP adoption studies from both developed and developing countries, published after (or otherwise not included in) two major literature reviews from 2007 and 2008. We summarize the study locations, scales, and BMPs studied; the analytical methods used; the factors evaluated; and the directionality of each factor’s influence …

Developing A Remotely Sensed Drought Monitoring Indicator For Morocco, Noureddine Bijaber, Driss El Hadani, Mariam Saidi, Mark D. Svoboda, Christopher Hain, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Mohammed Yessef, Atmane Rochdi

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation …

Improving National And Regional Drought Early Warning Systems In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Nicole Wall, Michael Hayes, Mark Svoboda, Deborah `Bathke

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The workshop was conducted to discuss various new and existing seasonal models and experimental drought and vegetation prediction products with experts and decision-makers representing local (private, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations), regional, and international organizations in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Eighty-five participants met to discuss a strategic approach for improving drought early warning and food security systems in the GHA.

Droughtscape, Winter 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Year in review: Drought eased in California, developed in Northern Plains

Quarterly Summary: Drought creeps across the country

Annual impact summary: A year of wildfires

Quarterly impact summary: Drought expands in Texas, Colorado

Drought and water crisis book updated

U.S. Drought Monitor available in Spanish

Study shows cities step up when drought occurs

New staff at the NDMC

Drought Summit in photos

Persistence Of Stream Restoration With Large Wood, Redwood National And State Parks, California, Diedra L. Rodriguez

Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects

The conservation and recovery of anadromous salmonids (Oncorhynchus sp.) depend on stream restoration and protection of freshwater habitats. In-stream large wood dictates channel morphology, increases retention of terrestrial inputs such as organic matter, nutrients and sediment, and enhances the quality of fish habitat. Historic land use/land cover changes have resulted in aquatic systems devoid of large wood. Restoration by placement of large wood jams is intended to restore physical and biological processes. An important question for scientists and restoration managers, in addition to the initial effectiveness of restoration, is the persistence and fate of large wood installations. In this …

Understanding The Food Water Nexus: Characterizing The Impact Of Climatological Anomalies On Agrosystems, Patrick M. Wurster Jr.

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Climate variability at global and regional scales is escalating with increased atmospheric carbon and is expected to magnify the intensity and duration of meteorological extremes, especially droughts. From the many environmental stresses that diminish crop production (e.g., soil salinity, frost, soil erosion) drought is one of the most prevalent. This study focuses on the sensitivity of three key crops produced in the northwestern United States to climatological anomalies, while controlling for attribution using anomalies in price. The study differs from similar studies in that we focus on variability in production which captures both yield (tonnes/ha) and cropping area (ha), as …

The Impact Of Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Extent On Cryospheric Snowfall, Alexander Carne

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Satellite observations show that sea ice extent in the Arctic has been declining from 1979 through present day, reaching record minimum extents in 2007 and 2012. Reduced sea ice extent allows for greater expanses of open water to interact with the Arctic atmosphere, potentially leading to changes in the Arctic climate. The greatest declines in Arctic sea ice extent have occurred in summer and autumn. During these seasons, it is likely that the decrease in Arctic sea ice extent led to an increase in atmospheric sensible and latent heat fluxes, possibly leading to increases in Arctic temperature and moisture. Increases …

Geophysical Delineation Of Megaporosity And Fluid Migration Pathways For Geohazard Characterization Within The Delaware Basin, Culberson County, Texas, Jonathan David Woodard

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

ABSTRACT

Differential dissolution of gypsum karst within the Delaware Basin poses a significant threat to infrastructure that society depends on. The study area is located in Culberson County, Texas and traverses a distance of approximately 54 kilometers along RM 652 within the Gypsum Plain which is situated on the northern margin of the Chihuahua Desert and includes outcrops of Castile and Rustler strata that host karst geohazards. Regions of karst geohazard potential have been physically surveyed proximal to the study area in evaporites throughout the Castile Formation outcrop; minimal hazards, in comparison to the Castile Formation, have been documented in …

Flash Droughts: A Review And Assessment Of The Challenges Imposed By Rapid-Onset Droughts In The United States, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Eric D. Hunt, Trent W. Ford, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jeffrey B. Basara

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

What Controls Variation In Carbon Use Efficiency Among Amazonian Tropical Forests?, Christopher E. Doughty, Gregory R. Goldsmith, Nicolas Raab, Cecile A. J. Girardin, Filio Farfan-Amezquita, Walter Huaraca-Huasco, Javier E. Silva-Espejo, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Antonio C. L. Da Costa, Wanderley Rocha, David Galbraith, Patrick Meir, Dan B. Metcalfe, Yadvinder Malhi

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Why do some forests produce biomass more efficiently than others? Variations in Carbon Use Efficiency (CUE: total Net Primary Production (NPP)/ Gross Primary Production (GPP)) may be due to changes in wood residence time (Biomass/NPP_wood), temperature, or soil nutrient status. We tested these hypotheses in 14, one ha plots across Amazonian and Andean forests where we measured most key components of net primary production (NPP: wood, fine roots, and leaves) and autotrophic respiration (R_a; wood, rhizosphere, and leaf respiration). We found that lower fertility sites were less efficient at producing biomass and had higher rhizosphere respiration, …

Do Advisors Perceive Climate Change As An Agricultural Risk? An In-Depth Examination Of Midwestern U.S. Ag Advisors’ Views On Drought, Climate Change, And Risk Management, Sarah P. Church, Michael Dunn, Nicholas Babin, Amber Saylor Mase, Tonya Haigh, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture; however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, …

Droughtscape, Fall 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought worsens in northern Great Plains

Drought takes toll on agriculture, livestock

Study examines ag advisors’ views on climate change

New drought definition could lead to better preparation

McCook takes big steps toward drought readiness

Group hopes to map drought planning process for Korea

South African researcher working to forecast drought

Cultivating drought preparedness in South Africa

Observed Changes In Climate And Streamflow In The Upper Rio Grande Basin, Shaleene Chavarria

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting the streamflow volume derived from snow accumulation in ways consistent with climate model-based projections of 21st century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the upper Rio Grande (URG) near its headwaters in southern Colorado are assessed for water years 1958-2015. Trends in discharge are examined together with variations in snow water equivalent and surface climate variables. Results indicate that temperatures in the basin have increased significantly primarily in the winter and spring seasons, April 1 snow …

Droughtscape, Summer 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought policy write shops conclude in Caribbean

Drought encroaches on Northern Plains in second quarter

Impact tool racks up submissions in second quarter

Maps on new website highlight drought effects on ag industry

Centers release new flash drought tool: QuickDRI

NDMC contributes to EU report on disaster risk management

Groups earn Climate Adaptation award for work with tribes

NDMC, ICPAC director talk collaboration on drought in Greater Horn of Africa

Up next in MENA: Drought vulnerability assessments

Spatiotemporal Analyses Of Recycled Water Production, Jana E. Archer

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Increased demands on water supplies caused by population expansion, saltwater intrusion, and drought have led to water shortages which may be addressed by use of recycled water as recycled water products. Study I investigated recycled water production in Florida and California during 2009 to detect gaps in distribution and identify areas for expansion. Gaps were detected along the panhandle and Miami, Florida, as well as the northern and southwestern regions in California. Study II examined gaps in distribution, identified temporal change, and located areas for expansion for Florida in 2009 and 2015. Production increased in the northern and southern regions …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Closing The Water Budget In An Experimental Urban Watershed: A Comparative Assessment Of Methods For Measuring Evapotranspiration, Leana M. Weissberg, Gaboury Benoit

Yale Day of Data

No abstract provided.

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …