Other Earth Sciences Commons^™

From Grassroots To National Alliance: The Emerging Trajectory For Landowner Prescribed Burn Associations, John R. Weir, Dirac L. Twidwell, Carissa L. Wonkka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

• Due to woody plant encroachment and seeing the need for fire on their lands, private landowners throughout the southern Great Plains have started forming prescribed burn associations (PBA) to assist each other with conducting prescribed fires. • Members of PBAs work together by pooling equipment and other resources, organizing training opportunities, and assisting with prescribed burns on each other’s properties, while teaching upcoming generations and inexperienced members the value of fire in grassland conservation and how to safely use it. • There are over 50 PBAs working in the southern Great Plains. As the number of PBAs has grown …

Rangeland Responses To Predicted Increases In Drought Extremity, David D. Breshears, Alan K. Knapp, Darin J. Law, Melinda D. Smith, Dirac L. Twidwell, Carissa L. Wonkka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rangeland managers actively focus on the potential to induce a shift in a site to an alternative state, but predicted changes in climate, particularly the likelihood of more extreme drought, necessitate reevaluating risks for alternative states. • Rangelands will differ in their susceptibility to undergo state changes due to climate change in general and for droughts of the future, in particular, which may be hotter. • Trees, shrubs, and grasses are expected to differ in their sensitivity to drought, with trees likely being most sensitive; this affects the likelihood for state changes in grasslands, shrublands, woodlands, and savannas. • Considering …

Drought And Health In The Context Of Public Engagement, Nicole Wall, Michael Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts have profoundly affected societies around the world from the earliest beginnings. A recent estimate from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) claims that more than 1 billion people have been affected by drought during the twenty-year period between 1994 and 2013. Because of the characteristics of drought, drought impacts are often difficult to identify and quantify, and this is especially true with public health-oriented drought consequences, including those resulting from low water quantities, poor water quality, mental health and stress, dust and windblown agents, and wildlife intrusion. However, when officials emphasize adopting a proactive risk …

Assessing Drought Vulnerability Using A Socioecological Framework, Joel R. Brown, Doug Kluck, Chad Mcnutt, Michael J. Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a persistent problem on rangelands and adjusting management to respond appropriately is critical to both preserving natural resources and to maintaining financial viability. • We explore the value of using a structured assessment approach to determining both social and ecological vulnerability. • This approach allows for the identification of vulnerable ecosystems and business operations at regional and local scales as a basis for developing effective policies and programs.

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

Assessing The Evolution Of Soil Moisture And Vegetation Conditions During The 2012 United States Flash Drought, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, Mark D. Svoboda, David K. Johnson, Richard Mueller, Tsegaye Tadesse, Brian D. Wardlow, Jesslyn Brown

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study examines the evolution of several model-based and satellite-derived drought metrics sensitive to soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the extreme flash drought event that impacted major agricultural areas across the central U.S. during 2012. Standardized anomalies from the remote sensing based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and soil moisture anomalies from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) are compared to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), surface meteorological conditions, and crop and soil moisture data compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Overall, the results show that rapid decreases in …

The Implications Of Climate Change For Nebraska: Summary Report Of Sector-Based Roundtable Discussions, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly Morrow

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This report is the result of the work of many individuals that contributed to the success of the series of eight sector-based roundtable events that were held in September and October of 2015. First and foremost, we would like to thank the organizers and the organizations they represent for their leadership in bringing together a diverse set of key stakeholders to discuss the implications of climate change on their sector. It was such a pleasure to work with such a dedicated group of individuals. Second, we would like to thank the more than 350 people who participated in these discussions …

New Tools For Assessing Drought Conditions For Rangeland Management, Cody Knutson, Brian Fuchs

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historical drought assessment and ongoingmonitoring is essential for understanding past drought occurrence, the relationships between past drought and its impacts, and for triggering action during current drought events. • A variety of new products have recently been developed to better monitor drought conditions and assess past occurrences at the local scale. • A growing number of resources are available to assist rangeland managers to develop a monitoring system and incorporate it into a drought management plan.

Linking Seasonal Predictions To Decision-Making And Disaster Management In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Tonya Haigh, Nicole Wall, Andualem Shiferaw, Ben Zaitchik, Shimelis Beyene, Getachew Berhan, Jacob Petr

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Seventy-six participants, including experts from seven countries from the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and project coinvestigators from the United States, met to discuss experimental seasonal prediction models and products for the GHA, to engage decision-makers and users in the assessment of hydroclimatic information requirements, and to use feedback to build a framework to support decision-making and disaster management. In pre- and postworkshop surveys, workshop participants were asked how the utility of forecasts to decision-makers might be improved. Their recommendations are presented

Droughtscape, Fall 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column.

NDMC 20th anniversary 2

Employment opportunity

Third quarter 2015 climate summary

Third quarter 2015 impacts summary

Workshop in Ethiopia

San Antonio multi-hazard tournament

Healthy soil is drought buffer

U2U Award

Cost-benefit analysis for utilities managing drought

NDMC helps with rural poll questions on climate

Introducing our post-docs

South Korean visitors

Participatory Research Workshop On Seasonal Prediction Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Deborah Bathke, Nicole Wall, Jacob Petr, Tonya Haigh

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Sixty participants, including experts from seven countries from the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and project coinvestigators from the United States, met to discuss seasonal prediction of hydroclimatic extremes across the GHA, engage decision-makers in the assessment of information requirements, and use feedback to orient prediction models to address user needs. Perceptions of current climate change impacts in the GHA were assessed using pre- and postworkshop surveys. Participatory research was conducted through small group discussions on water, agriculture, impacts, and data sharing.

Facilitating The Use Of Drought Early Warning Information Through Interactions With Agricultural Stakeholders, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Shafer, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jeffrey Basara

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape, Summer 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

New Drought Risk Management Research Center

Second quarter 2015 climate summary

Second quarter 2015 impacts summary

Caribbean region an innovator in drought early warning

Wind River Reservation tribes move toward drought planning

Ranchers, U.S. Forest Service, University of Arizona co-develop drought plans

Summer blockbuster from CoCoRaHS: Assessing Drought in the U.S

Western states drought coordinators meet

Drougthscape, Spring 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column.

South Plains ranch workshops 3

First quarter drought summary

First quarter impacts summary

Gary’s favorite pond, D1-4

NDMC’s Haigh leads U2U pubs

SW Montana watersheds convene

Wind River monitors drought

Morocco’s new drought index

Northeast Brazil drought monitoring

EU’s drought initiative

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

How Colorado tourism coped in 2012

Mapping The Decision Points And Climate Information Use Of Agricultural Producers Across The U.S. Corn Belt, Tonya Haigh, Eugene S. Takle, Jeffrey Andresen, Melissa Widhalm, J. Stuart Carlton, Jim Angel

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The usefulness of climate information for agricultural risk management hinges on its availability and relevance to the producer when climate-sensitive decisions are being made. Climate information providers are challenged with the task of balancing forecast availability and lead time with acceptable forecast skill, which requires an improved understanding of the timing of agricultural decision making. Achieving a useful balance may also require an expansion of inquiry to include use of non-forecast climate information (i.e. historical climate information) in agricultural decision making. Decision calendars have proven valuable for identifying opportunities for using different types of climate information. The extent to which …

Global Warming And Population Responses Among Great Plains Birds, Paul A. Johnsgard

Zea E-Books Collection

Based on an analysis of 47 years (1967–2014) of Audubon Christmas Bird Counts (CBC), evidence for population changes and shifts in early winter (late December) ranges of nearly 150 species of birds in the Great Plains states is summarized, a region defined as including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. The rationale for this study had its origins in Terry Root’s 1988 Atlas of North American Wintering Birds. Root’s landmark study provided a baseline for evaluating the nationwide winter distributions of 253 North American birds in the mid-20th century, using data from the National Audubon Society’s …

Estimation Of Daily Air Temperature Based On Modis Land Surface Temperature Products Over The Corn Belt In The Us, Linglin Zeng, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jie Shan, Michael J. Hayes, Deren Li, Daxiang Xiang

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Air temperature (Ta) is a key input in a wide range of agroclimatic applications. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Ts (Land Surface Temperature (LST)) products are widely used to estimate daily Ta. However, only daytime LST (Ts-day) or nighttime LST (Ts-night) data have been used to estimate Tmax/Tmin (daily maximum or minimum air temperature), respectively. The relationship between Tmax and Ts-night, and the one between Tmin and Ts-day has not been studied. In this study, both the ability of Ts-night data to estimate Tmax and the ability of Ts-day data to estimate Tmin were tested and studied in the Corn …

Estimation Of Daily Air Temperature Based On Modis Land Surface Temperature Products Over The Corn Belt In The Us, Linglin Zeng, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jie Shan, Michael Hayes, Deren Li, Daxiang Xiang

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Air temperature (Ta) is a key input in a wide range of agroclimatic applications. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Ts (Land Surface Temperature (LST)) products are widely used to estimate daily Ta. However, only daytime LST (Ts-day) or nighttime LST (Ts-night) data have been used to estimate Tmax/Tmin (daily maximum or minimum air temperature), respectively. The relationship between Tmax and Ts-night, and the one between Tmin and Ts-day has not been studied. In this study, both the ability of Ts-night data to estimate Tmax and the ability of Ts-day data to estimate Tmin were tested and studied in the Corn …

Drougthscape, Winter 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Central U.S. 2012 report

October-December drought summary

2014 drought summary

Caribbean capacity building

Drought impacts in 2014

California timeline 2014

UC Davis ranching workshop

NASA SMAP data

Global drought info system

Community Capitals

Evaluation and assessment

Indicator-impact research

NDMC on YouTube

From Too Much To Too Little: How The Central U.S. Drought Of 2012 Evolved Out Of One Of The Most Devastating Floods On Record In 2011, Brian Fuchs, Deborah Wood, Dee Ebbeka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Introduction: Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center

Regional Drought Perspective: Natalie A. Umphlett, High Plains Regional Climate Center, Michael S. Timlin, Midwest Regional Climate Center, Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center

State Drought Perspectives — Colorado: Wendy Ryan and Nolan Doesken, Colorado Climate Center • Illinois: Jim Angel, Illinois State Water Survey • Indiana: Olivia Kellner, Indiana State Climate Office • Iowa: Harry J. Hillaker, Iowa Dept. of Agriculture & Land Stewardship • Kansas: Mary Knapp and Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University • Kentucky: Stu Foster, Kentucky State Climate Office • Michigan: Jeff Andresen and Aaron Pollyea, Michigan State University …

A Fast Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Simulator For Cloudy Atmospheres, Chao Liu, Ping Yang, Steven Platnick, Kerry G. Meyer, Chenxi Wang, Shouguo Ding

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

A fast instrument simulator is developed to simulate the observations made in cloudy atmospheres by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The correlated k distribution technique is used to compute the transmissivities associated with absorbing atmospheric gases. The bulk scattering properties of ice clouds are based on the ice model used for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 ice cloud products, and those ofwater clouds are computedwith the Lorenz-Mie theory. Two fast radiative transfer models based on precomputed ice cloud look-up tables are used for the VIIRS solar and infrared channels. The accuracy and efficiency of the fast …

New Atlas Features Corn Belt Farmers' Perspectives On Agriculture And Climate, John Tyndall, J. Gordon Arbuckle, Tonya Haigh, Cody L. Knutson, Lois Wright Morton, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Farmer Perspectives on Agriculture and Weather Variability in the Corn Belt: A Statistical Atlas is a new publication available online at . The atlas includes maps and tables that make it easy for readers to gauge farmer perspectives within the US Corn Belt. Topics covered include farmer beliefs about climate change, attitudes toward actions in response to increased weather variability, risk perceptions, and experiences with weather extremes. This region-specific information on farmers' climate change and risk beliefs is designed to help Extension personnel tailor the climate adaptation and education programming they offer in their region.

The Implications Of Climate Change For Nebraska: Summary Report Of Sector-Based Roundtable Discussions (September-October 2015), Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly Morrow

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Introduction ... iv

Roundtable Reports: Overview ... iv

Rural Nebraskans Poll: Summary of Key Outcomes on Climate Change ... vi

Summary of Roundtable Discussions ... 1

Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems and Wildlife in Nebraska ... 1

Implications of Climate Change on Human Health in Nebraska ... 11

Implications of Climate Change on Nebraska’s Forests and Fire ... 21

Implications of Climate Change on Nebraska’s Agriculture, Food and Water ... 27

Implications of Climate Change on Energy Availability, Use and Management in Nebraska ... 31

Climate Change in Nebraska: What Does it Mean for our Faith Communities? …

Agricultural Advisors As Climate Information Intermediaries: Exploring Differences In Capacity To Communicate Climate, Tonya Haigh, Lois Wright Morton, Maria Carmen Lemos, Cody Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Yun Jia Lo, Jim Angel

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Although agricultural production faces chronic stress associated with extreme precipitation events, high temperatures, drought, and shifts in climate conditions, adoption of climate information into agricultural decision making has been relatively limited. Agricultural advisors have been shown to play important roles as information intermediaries between scientists and farmers, brokering, translating, and adding value to agronomic and economic information of use in agricultural management decision making. Yet little is known about the readiness of different types of agricultural advisors to use weather and climate information to help their clients manage risk under increasing climate uncertainty. More than 1700 agricultural advisors in four …

Droughtscape, Fall 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Upcoming events

Drought and climate summary

Drought impacts

Drought planning in Brazil

Ethiopian workshop

Visiting scholar

Help for South Plains ranchers

Wind River tribal workshop

Inter Tribal Buffalo Council

South Dakota ranch workshops

Crop Advisors As Climate Information Brokers: Building The Capacity Of Us Farmers To Adapt To Climate Change, Maria Carmen Lemos, Yun-Jia Lo, Christine Kirchhoff, Tonya Haigh

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This paper examines the role of crop advisors as brokers of climate information to support US corn farmers to adapt to climatic change. It uses quantitative data collected from a broad survey of crop advisors in the US Corn Belt to examine the factors that shape advisors’ use of (and willingness to provide) climate information to their clients. Building upon a general model of climate information usability we argue that advisors’ willingness to provide climate advice to farmers is influenced by three main factors: their information seeking habits and behavior, their experience with innovation in the past, and how climate …

Time, Money, And Melting Ice: Proposal For A Coopertive Study Of The World’S Cave Ice In A Race Against Climate Change, George Veni, Lewis Land, Aurel Perşoiu

The International Workshop on Ice Caves

Climate change is a global phenomenon that is melting and threatening to melt ice deposits in many of the world’s ice caves. The National Cave and Karst Research Institute of the USA is concerned that major and important paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental records stored in cave ice will soon be lost, and is proposing an international collaborative effort to overcome funding and logistical challenges to sample and analyze at least a representative collection of ice from several regions before further melting occurs.

Using Temporal Changes In Drought Indices To Generate Probabilistic Drought Intensification Forecasts, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, the potential utility of using rapid temporal changes in drought indices to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales is assessed. Standardized change anomalies were computed each week during the 2000–13 growing seasons for drought indices depicting anomalies in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and soil moisture. A rapid change index (RCI) that encapsulates the accumulated magnitude of rapid changes in the weekly anomalies was computed each week for each drought index, and then a simple statistical method was used to convert the RCI values into drought intensification probabilities depicting the likelihood that …

Droughtscape, Summer 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook

Drought & climate summary

Drought impacts

International drought monitoring and planning

Visiting scholars

North American Drought Monitor Forum

New primary Dust Bowl source

New additions to online webinar archive

Community Capitals Framework Institute

Water-Use Restriction Information: Information Sharing Between Public Water Systems And State Government Offices, Christopher Carparelli

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In many states there is an absence of communication between the state and local levels about many aspects of water resource management. This research examines the interaction between the state and local levels regarding water-use restrictions for public water systems (PWSs). This information is useful for state-level drought planning and mitigation through the assessment of drought impacts on public water supplies. Officials from five state-level entities that collect and disseminate local water-use restriction information were interviewed over the phone for this research. Each official was asked eleven questions about how and why their state collects and disseminates PWS water-use restriction …